CPAC: FERNANDA - Tropical Depression

[KWT]

Looking half decent, its amazing to think the Atlantic can only produce useless TS storms whilst the EPAC produces one good looking storm after another eh

Made some good progress today.

[CrazyC83]

This is acting more and more like an El Nino year...

[Battlebrick]

wow, this is wrapping up quickly and nicely. 95% sure this will be a cane in less than 24 hours.

6/6!!

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 162036
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062011
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 16 2011

FERNANDA HAS GONE THROUGH AN INTERESTING EVOLUTION ON SATELLITE
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE OVERNIGHT IMAGES SUGGESTED A
SHEARED SYSTEM...THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A STORM
CHARACTERIZED BY CURVED BANDING FEATURES AND NO SIGNS OF THE EARLIER
SHEAR. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
ARE 45 KT...SO THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED.

THE OUTFLOW PATTERN OF FERNANDA HAS A FAVORABLE SHAPE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION WITH CIRRUS FANNING OUT NICELY IN ALL QUADRANTS.
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED A BIT TO THE
SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...SO THE STORM SHOULD HAVE A LONGER
TIME IN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING.
ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS NOW MAKE FERNANDA A HURRICANE AT
SOME POINT...AND CONSIDERING THE STORM SHOULD HAVE LIGHT SHEAR AND
MARGINALLY WARM WATERS FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS...THERE IS NOT MUCH
REASON TO DISCOUNT THE STRONGER SOLUTION. THUS...THE NEW NHC
FORECAST CALLS FOR FERNANDA TO BRIEFLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH.
IN THE LONGER RANGE...A COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR
AND COOLER WATER SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING...AND THE NHC FORECAST
REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME.

IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING OR HAS REFORMED A
BIT TO THE SOUTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 265/9 KT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING
A DEEP TROUGH ALONG ABOUT 140W...WHICH LEAVES A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS FERNANDA APPROACHES THAT LONGITUDE...THE
STORM SHOULD TURN A BIT MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IN
RESPONSE TO THE WEAKNESS. IN A FEW DAYS...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN
BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH IN THE SHORT-TERM...MOSTLY DUE TO THE
CENTER REFORMATION...BUT ENDS UP NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BY
THE END. WHILE THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE NORTH IN THE
LONG RANGE...STRONG SHEAR AND COLDER-THAN-AVERAGE WATERS SHOULD
REDUCE FERNANDA TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 11.7N 135.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 11.6N 136.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 11.9N 138.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 12.6N 139.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 13.4N 141.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 15.0N 145.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 15.5N 149.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 15.5N 153.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[SouthDadeFish]

Not only will this probably be 6/6, but the TD is forecast to become a hurricane. 7/7?

[KWT]

Its insane, the EPAC keeps producing hurricanes whilst the Atlantic is producing nothing but Tropical storms!!

I think it will be 7/7!!

[cycloneye]

Its insane, the EPAC keeps producing hurricanes whilst the Atlantic is producing nothing but Tropical storms!!

I think it will be 7/7!!

And the big thing is ENSO is on borderline between Neutral and La Nina.

[Kingarabian]

Not only will this probably be 6/6, but the TD is forecast to become a hurricane. 7/7?

Just yesterday it was out of the question for this storm to become a Hurricane... It's funny how we are also in a neutral season leaning towards la nina.

Is it me or is it always Female hurricanes poising the most risk to Hawaii? In the past 2 decades we had Jimena, Felicia, Flossie, Iniki, Neki, Darby, Dora, Emilia, and now Fernanda.

[Macrocane]

Yeah, it's kind of weird how it looks like an El Niño for both basins and actually the Pacific waters are cooling although remember that ENSO is just one of the factors that have influence in tropical cyclone seasons, there are other that may be enhancing and supressing the activity. Let's see if this behaviour changes soon or not.

[KWT]

Looking superb, hurricane status probably not that far off...

I'd go with 55kts...

[Macrocane]

Yeah it's looking really good especially after looking so bad just 24 hours ago. I agree that this may be the 6 out of 6 for this basin.

[Yellow Evan]

Its insane, the EPAC keeps producing hurricanes whilst the Atlantic is producing nothing but Tropical storms!!

I think it will be 7/7!!

And the big thing is ENSO is on borderline between Neutral and La Nina.

Well, the Nino region the EPAC is in is Neutral

[Kingarabian]

Eye like feature?



Hey anyone know if Recon is going out in a few days?

[RL3AO]

Thats just dry air.

[Yellow Evan]

Thats just dry air.

Eye like feature?



Hey anyone know if Recon is going out in a few days?

It is not dry air, it is trying to develop an eye. And I doubt recon is going in Fernanda as unless it intensifies significantly as it should remain south of Hawii. However, interests in Hawaii should monitor the progress of Fernanda

[Yellow Evan]

Not only will this probably be 6/6, but the TD is forecast to become a hurricane. 7/7?

Just yesterday it was out of the question for this storm to become a Hurricane... It's funny how we are also in a neutral season leaning towards la nina.

Is it me or is it always Female hurricanes poising the most risk to Hawaii? In the past 2 decades we had Jimena, Felicia, Flossie, Iniki, Neki, Darby, Dora, Emilia, and now Fernanda.

They are several males as well During the same period, there has been Eugene, Daniel (two of them), Cosme, John (94), and Kenneth. They are a few girl names you missed as well, Fernanda (93), Jova (05), and Gilma (94).

[lester]

It's probably dry air.

- לסטר

[RL3AO]

It is not dry air, it is trying to develop an eye. And I doubt recon is going in Fernanda as unless it intensifies significantly as it should remain south of Hawii. However, interests in Hawaii should monitor the progress of Fernanda

Sorry, but I strongly disagree. Thats not an eye. Thats dry air.

[RL3AO]

Missed most of the center, but what we can see shows that a decent inner core is developing.

[Fyzn94]

Fernanda looks a lot like Vince, despite the fact that she's in more favorable conditions.

Vince:


(50th POST!!!)