EPAC: GREG - Tropical Depression

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#41 Postby Chacor » Thu Aug 18, 2011 9:11 am

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That blob over NW Mexico/the Gulf of California is generating deeper convection than Greg is...
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#42 Postby Chacor » Thu Aug 18, 2011 9:52 am

WTPZ42 KNHC 181446
TCDEP2

HURRICANE GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072011
800 AM PDT THU AUG 18 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT GREG HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST WITH OCCASIONAL HINTS OF AN EYE APPEARING IN VISIBLE AND
INFRARED IMAGERY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 77 KT FROM
SAB AND TAFB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT. THE
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR
ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/16. GREG IS LOCATED BETWEEN A LARGE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A LARGE GYRE IN THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE TO ITS SOUTHWEST. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST
THE GYRE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR...AND THEY
FORECAST THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AFTER 72 HR IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE GREG TO TURN MORE WESTWARD
DURING THE FIRST 24 HR...WITH A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST AT A
DECREASING FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE
HAVING PROBLEMS FORECASTING THE INTERACTION OF GREG WITH THE GYRE
DUE TO A POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE HURRICANE. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES A LITTLE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THERE IS A OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TODAY. AFTER
THAT...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES GREG OVER COOLER WATERS WHERE STEADY
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL GREG DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT 120 HR. THE NEW FORECAST INTENSITIES...WHICH ARE A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND ICON GUIDANCE...ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HR AND THEN ARE THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 18.5N 111.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 18.9N 113.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 19.1N 116.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 19.2N 118.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 19.2N 120.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 19.0N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 19.0N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 19.0N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: EPAC: GREG - Hurricane

#43 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:50 pm

HURRICANE GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072011
200 PM PDT THU AUG 18 2011

GREG HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ITS APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN
THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL HINTS OF AN EYE APPEARING IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND RATHER POOR TO THE NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT OF THIS
AND POSSIBLE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM IS
DETACHED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB BOTH CAME IN AT 77 KT...AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 75 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12 WHICH IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN SIX HOURS
AGO. GREG REMAINS LOCATED BETWEEN A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A LARGE GYRE IN THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE TO ITS SOUTHWEST. MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST
GREG TO SLOW AND MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS AS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND GREG
INTERACTS WITH THE WEAK GYRE TO ITS SOUTHWEST. BEYOND 48 HOURS THE
TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

THE INTENSITY OF GREG HAS LIKELY PLATEAUED AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE MUCH IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND 12 HOURS...GREG IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSE
STEADY WEAKENING. GREG IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THE FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN
NUDGED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 18.8N 112.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 19.0N 114.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 19.1N 116.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 19.1N 119.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 18.9N 120.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 18.5N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 18.5N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 18.0N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/WROE
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#44 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:56 pm

Looks nice.
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Re: EPAC: GREG - Hurricane

#45 Postby Macrocane » Thu Aug 18, 2011 10:48 pm

Poor Greg he was forgotten, here's the latest Forecast Discussion:

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 190257
TCDEP2

HURRICANE GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072011
800 PM PDT THU AUG 18 2011

IT APPEARS THAT GREG HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN. THE MOST RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE OF GREG HAS DISAPPEARED.
GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
THINNED OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE THAT TIME A NEW BURST
OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS HAVE STARTED TO DECREASE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 70 KT. THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING AND GREG IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 3-4 DAYS.

GREG IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT. THERE
HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. GREG SHOULD
TURN WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW DOWN OF THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
CYCLONE. AS GREG WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE...IT IS
LIKELY TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 18.9N 113.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 19.1N 115.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 19.2N 118.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 19.1N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 18.9N 121.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 18.6N 124.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 18.3N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/0000Z 18.0N 129.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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#46 Postby Chacor » Fri Aug 19, 2011 3:52 am

Still a hurricane, but barely...

WTPZ42 KNHC 190839
TCDEP2

HURRICANE GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072011
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 19 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE...AND CONVECTIVE TOPS
ARE WARMING AT THIS TIME. T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING BUT STILL
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATERS...AND SOON THE ENTIRE
CIRCULATION WILL FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING...AND GREG COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW
IN 4 DAYS OR EARLIER.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. GREG WILL LIKELY BE STEERED
TOWARD THE WEST BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BUT AS THE CYCLONE
WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT WILL PROBABLY MOVE TOWARD
THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST EMBEDDED IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. IN
FACT...DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST GREG TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BEYOND 2 DAYS.

GREG JUST PASSED TO THE NORTH OF CLARION ISLAND...AND DATA FROM A
MEXICAN NAVY WEATHER STATION WAS VERY HELPFUL IN TRACKING THE
CYCLONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 19.1N 115.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 19.5N 116.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 19.5N 119.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 19.5N 121.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 19.0N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 18.5N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 18.0N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: EPAC: GREG - Tropical Storm

#47 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:02 am

Downgraded.

TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072011
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 19 2011

GREG HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS IN THE PAST SIX
HOURS. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED NEAR THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH
HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB
BOTH CAME IN AT 65 KT...BUT DATA-T NUMBERS WERE BOTH T3.5/55 KT.
GIVEN THE STEADY CONVECTIVE EROSION NOTED IN THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION SINCE THE 12Z FIXES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
SET AT 55 KT.

GREG SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE IS NEARING 25C WATERS...AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE DECLINING BELOW 24C BY TOMORROW. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GREG TO WEAKEN INTO A DEPRESSION ON
SATURDAY AND TO A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY...WHICH IS A SLIGHTLY
FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING FROM THE PRIOR FORECAST AND LOWER THAN ALL
OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THERE HAS BEEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK REASONING...AND GREG IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTERLY MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW...A
SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS ROUGHLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL AND CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 19.1N 115.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 19.3N 117.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 19.3N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 19.1N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 18.8N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1200Z 18.3N 125.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER WROE/STEWART
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#48 Postby Chacor » Fri Aug 19, 2011 8:26 pm

WTPZ42 KNHC 192038
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072011
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 19 2011

GREG CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS. CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE
CENTER HAVE WARMED...AND DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE INNER CORE
HAS DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY IN COVERAGE DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS...REVEALING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CURRENT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB CAME IN AT 65 AND
55 KT...RESPECTIVELY...THOUGH DATA-T NUMBERS GAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER STRENGTHS OF 45 AND 40 KT..RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 50 KT...ESSENTIALLY AN AVERAGE OF THE
DVORAK NUMBERS.

GREG WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE IS SITTING OVER
SSTS OF APPROXIMATELY 24.5C...AND SSTS WILL BE COOLING TO NEAR
23C TOMORROW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GREG TO WEAKEN INTO A
DEPRESSION SATURDAY NIGHT AND TO A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE WEAKENING RATE OF SHIPS
GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THE COOLING SSTS ALONG THE TRACK...FASTER
WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE TRACK HAS BEEN
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH FROM THE PRIOR PACKAGE GIVEN A
GREATER DEGREE OF NORTHWARD DRIFT THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GREG WILL
FOLLOW A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW...A SLIGHT
TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. EVEN WITH THE
NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST...THE TRACK FORECAST IS ON THE LEFT
OR SOUTH SIDE SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 19.6N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 19.7N 118.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 19.7N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 19.6N 122.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 19.3N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1800Z 18.7N 126.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER WROE/STEWART
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Re: EPAC: GREG - Tropical Storm

#49 Postby Macrocane » Fri Aug 19, 2011 9:48 pm

WTPZ42 KNHC 200243
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072011
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 19 2011

AFTER THE CENTER WAS EXPOSED EARLIER...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY
RECOVERED NEAR THE SYSTEM DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...
THIS BURST APPEARS TO BE TEMPORARY AS THE CLOUD TOPS ARE ALREADY
WARMING. A BLEND OF THE T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT
AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 45 KT. A SLOW SPIN DOWN OF THE VORTEX
OVER WATERS NEAR 23C IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COOL WATERS
AND DRY STABLE AIR SHOULD CAUSE GREG TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS GREG WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORECAST ALONG
125W...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE TOO WEAK TO FEEL THE WEAKNESS
AND CONTINUE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE GUIDANCE IS JUST A
BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER DURING THE FIRST DAY OR SO...AND THE
NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 19.7N 118.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 19.8N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 19.8N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/1200Z 19.8N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0000Z 19.5N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0000Z 18.5N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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#50 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:45 pm

Quite a quick weakening expected I see, poor old Greg has been totally overlooked by 97L!
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#51 Postby Chacor » Sat Aug 20, 2011 8:51 pm

WTPZ42 KNHC 202037
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072011
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 20 2011

GREG HAS CHANGED LITTLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS...WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION STUBBORNLY PERSISTING NEAR THE
CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB BOTH CAME
IN AT 30 KT...THOUGH A COINCIDENT ASCAT PASS DETECTED WINDS AROUND
35 KT IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN HELD AT 35 KT...AND GREG REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/08. GREG WILL BE STEERED ON A NEARLY DUE
WEST TRACK TONIGHT BY THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE
HIGH WILL BE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON GREG...WHICH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
SHALLOW AND SHOULD BE STEERED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY THE HIGH.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE FULL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.

GREG WILL BE WEAKENING OVER COOL WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SSTS
WILL BE HOVERING AROUND 23C DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
STABLE AIR IS INGESTED FROM THE NORTH. AS A RESULT...GREG SHOULD
WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN
INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 24 HOURS OR SO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 19.9N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 19.9N 121.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 19.7N 123.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0600Z 19.3N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/1800Z 18.9N 125.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1800Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER WROE/AVILA
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#52 Postby supercane » Sat Aug 20, 2011 9:38 pm

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 210233
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072011
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 20 2011

A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ON THE NORTHEASTERN
EDGE OF THE CENTER OF GREG OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...
RESPECTIVELY...WHILE BOTH AGENCIES REPORTED A FINAL T-NUMBER
INTENSITY OF 25 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS AN AVERAGE OF
THE DVORAK NUMBERS...AND GREG IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/06. GREG WILL BE STEERED ON A
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK TONIGHT BY THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL
HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
WEAKENING AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OFF THE WEST COAST...
WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW GREG TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED. AS GREG WEAKENS AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY
SHALLOW IT SHOULD BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST BY THE SURFACE RIDGE
ON SUNDAY AND THEN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE NORTH AGAIN AND
IS ESSENTIALLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

GREG WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER COOL WATERS. SSTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE RATHER COLD 22C TO 23C RANGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
AND STABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE INGESTED FROM THE NORTH. AS A
RESULT...GREG IS FORECAST TO SPIN DOWN TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 20.1N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 20.2N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 20.1N 123.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/1200Z 19.6N 124.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/0000Z 19.0N 126.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER WROE/BRENNAN
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Re: EPAC: GREG - Remnant Low

#53 Postby Fyzn94 » Sun Aug 21, 2011 9:52 am

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GREG ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072011
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...GREG BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 122.8W
ABOUT 850 MI...1365 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
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NOTICE: I cannot give an expert analysis. Most of my "observations" are made visually with the help of only vital information provided by public advisories.


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