ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[painkillerr]

I wouldn't be suprised if this develops more than people might think. I say that because many times systems have developed stronger that was originally anticipated, even though the conditions weren't ideal. This has happened numerous times.

I just get this feeling because because the US is so incredibly overdo for a major. Our luck has to run out soon. This could be the one.

I agree... I feel like it will develop sooner than forecasted.

[Aric Dunn]

I wouldn't be suprised if this develops more than people might think. I say that because many times systems have developed stronger that was originally anticipated, even though the conditions weren't ideal. This has happened numerous times.

I just get this feeling because because the US is so incredibly overdo for a major. Our luck has to run out soon. This could be the one.

Well it could be stronger as it approaches the islands if it can get some more convection to really tighten on the LLC. Looking at the floater finally you can clearly see a LLC but still broad but the north to SE side is more defined then the rest. if there is a good burst of convection now to help the LLC then as it approaches the islands where the environment improves(i.e mostly just the dry air).... having a well defined circ will increase the chances of faster intensification.

Notice there is still a lot of "if" scenarios. Have to wait and see if it can get some more organized convection.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Aric,

Please if you get a chance scroll back I wanted your opinon regarding track related to your post about missing DR to the north.

[Aric Dunn]

whats interesting is that although that is normally the case. the models this time... either weak or strong still mostly pull it north of hispanola. the can be seen in the well established steering flow in both the low and mid levels. a wnw track should happen even as a wave. although the extent of the wnw motion would be more pronounced if it were stronger do to rotational effects of the circulation.

Aric,

I thought most of the models had it going over Hispanola? If it does goes north would that not make the track a bit north of what the models were showing when they had it going through the lower keys later in the run.

I made another post to clear that up a little in the previous page. it was more a reference to the synoptic set up that would favor a more wnw track as it approaches the islands. the models have yet to really go south of hispanola.

As for being more north later on. it would at least mean it has a lower chances of going through the straights.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thank you,

disregard my last post.

[Ivanhater]

whats interesting is that although that is normally the case. the models this time... either weak or strong still mostly pull it north of hispanola. the can be seen in the well established steering flow in both the low and mid levels. a wnw track should happen even as a wave. although the extent of the wnw motion would be more pronounced if it were stronger do to rotational effects of the circulation.

Aric,

I thought most of the models had it going over Hispanola? If it does goes north would that not make the track a bit north of what the models were showing when they had it going through the lower keys later in the run.

I made another post to clear that up a little in the previous page. it was more a reference to the synoptic set up that would favor a more wnw track as it approaches the islands. the models have yet to really go south of hispanola.

Canadian goes south of Hispaniola. Well see though

[KWT]

I wouldn't be suprised if this develops more than people might think. I say that because many times systems have developed stronger that was originally anticipated, even though the conditions weren't ideal. This has happened numerous times.

I just get this feeling because because the US is so incredibly overdo for a major. Our luck has to run out soon. This could be the one.

It could develop more once it gets going but I think conditions aren't that good around it right now, think its going to take at least solid 2-3 days yet before its at the point where development looks likely.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Like everyone else am amazed at how big this is, but once it starts to get going will it not tighten up? I just can't see it becoming a strong system and staying this large.

[Ivanhater]

Already looks like a LLC to the east of the convection with banding features already present

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,

I thought most of the models had it going over Hispanola? If it does goes north would that not make the track a bit north of what the models were showing when they had it going through the lower keys later in the run.

I made another post to clear that up a little in the previous page. it was more a reference to the synoptic set up that would favor a more wnw track as it approaches the islands. the models have yet to really go south of hispanola.

Canadian goes south of Hispaniola. Well see though

haha. yes it does. just looked at the 00z run well thats the first one i have seen. so I will re-state.... the GFS and Euro have yet to really go south of Hispaniola lol

but yes we will see.

[ConvergenceZone]

It could develop more once it gets going but I think conditions aren't that good around it right now, think its going to take at least solid 2-3 days yet before its at the point where development looks likely.

Yep, and once this does get going, it might intensify fairly rapidly.......
Heck, even the EURO is showing a system stronger than it was it yesterday...

[gatorcane]

Already looks like a LLC to the east of the convection with banding features already present

yes I see that. That could be the LLC, naked right now though..

[Blown Away]

Models seem to hint favorable upper level conditions near Bahamas, it's all about Hispaniola, skirts a bit north this could be epic!

[HurricaneWarning92]

i dont know if my eyes are playing tricks with me, but it looks to me its moving more wnw rather than west?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[micktooth]

i dont know if my eyes are playing tricks with me, but it looks to me its moving more wnw rather than west?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I think until we have an actual center, it will be hard to tell the exact direction. What do you all think?

[KWT]

NHC stating 280 degrees, that looks good to me looking at the Vis.loops at the moment.

[micktooth]

From Dr. Masters at Wunderground, some interesting points, I like his analysis:

nvest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

[Aric Dunn]

Like everyone else am amazed at how big this is, but once it starts to get going will it not tighten up? I just can't see it becoming a strong system and staying this large.

yeah it wont be that big. the surrounding environment will put a stop to that. It could end up being a little more on the "annular" side in the development stages in the sense that the rainbands/convection should be isolated closer to the center where the convergence will be high enough the counter the surrounding dry air. This would be analogous to winding a length of rope in a loosely wound spiral up from the center out.... The outer parts are the last to get pulled in or tightened. So at first things will start very close the center and if the environment becomes more favorable and it intensifies the potential for a large extensive hurricane is possible.

[wxman57]

Yes, the LLC is east of the convection. It's fighting lots of dry air almost all around it now, along with moderate low-level wind shear. As such, it may have a hard time developing over the next 2-3 days until it reaches the eastern Caribbean. I'm not convinced it will develop as quickly as the models are indicating. If it does develop in just 3 days, then it could be a significant threat to the southeast U.S. (FL to Carolinas).

However, if development is delayed, then it continues moving farther west into the Caribbean. I don't see it as an eventual Texas or Louisiana threat (yet), as that persistent ridge overhead just isn't showing any signs of budging. But it could threaten the eastern Gulf or not get picked up at all and track into southern Mexico (like 93L).

[gatorcane]

Yes, the LLC is east of the convection. It's fighting lots of dry air almost all around it now, along with moderate low-level wind shear. As such, it may have a hard time developing over the next 2-3 days until it reaches the eastern Caribbean. I'm not convinced it will develop as quickly as the models are indicating. If it does develop in just 3 days, then it could be a significant threat to the southeast U.S. (FL to Carolinas).

However, if development is delayed, then it continues moving farther west into the Caribbean. I don't see it as an eventual Texas or Louisiana threat (yet), as that persistent ridge overhead just isn't showing any signs of budging. But it could threaten the eastern Gulf or not get picked up at all and track into southern Mexico (like 93L).

I agree with that as well.

Only thing I am noticing is that it seems 97L is moving north of due west and not west even though it is a shallow system. If you extrapolate the current movement, that puts in in the NE Leewards/Puerto Rico area....so it may not even need to develop in 2 to 3 days to still pose a threat to the SE US coast.