ATL: IRENE - Models

[Ivanhater]

I have a feeling this thread could be a long one

[gatorcane]

Thankfully, it's GFS 8-day.....

[Ivanhater]

As soon as I posted in the other thread after working hard to update the GFS list, they tag it!

Updating the GFS list. The last 13 runs have consistently shown a major U.S hit.

GFS Runs:

06Z Mon: up U.S. East coast
12Z Mon: central LA 8/30
18Z Mon: skirts FL east coast to Charleston 8/27-8
00Z Tue: Tampa 8/27
06Z Tue: Pensacola 8/28
12Z Tue: S tip FL 8/26 to MS 8/28
18Z Tue: skirts FL east coast to Beaufort, SC 8/27-8
00Z Wed: FL Keys 8/26 to Apalachicola 8/27
06Z Wed: Ft. Lauderdale 8/26
12Z Wed: Georgia/South Carolina border 8/27
18Z Wed: West Palm beach up east coast of FL 8/25
00Z Thur: FL Keys 8/26 to west coast of FL 8/27
06Z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Big bend 8/27

_________________

[KWT]

00z ECM goes mental...06z goes mental...CMC goes mental...

Odds are, if it can avoid getting totally destroyed by Hispaniola (which a few ECM runs have shown) we will have a hurricane near the US by day 8-9...

[Scorpion]

The fact that its such a large circulation would mean that it would likely not get destroyed by Hispaniola

[KWT]

Scorpion, nope but it would mean it would take a while to get itself back again and given some of the tracks suggested, esp the 06z GFS, it won't have a huge amount of time once it does finally pull itself together to get ramping up to the extreme some models suggests.

I'm fully expecting the GFDL or HWRF to showw a strengthening hurricane by the end of the runs.

[SFLcane]

Scorpion, nope but it would mean it would take a while to get itself back again and given some of the tracks suggested, esp the 06z GFS, it won't have a huge amount of time once it does finally pull itself together to get ramping up to the extreme some models suggests.

I'm fully expecting the GFDL or HWRF to showw a strengthening hurricane by the end of the runs.

Wont be surprised to see a few cat-4 or even 5 from the HWRF.

[wxman57]

Wont be surprised to see a few cat-4 or even 5 from the HWRF.

Me neither, as the HWRF does that for quite a few systems that never develop. It's really had a problem with its intensity forecasts.

[KWT]

Indeed, maybe a little too soon for the hurricane models to go that strong, but I suspect in a few days when we get into the current 192-240hrs region we will see a very aggressive forecast.

The fact the ECM AND an increasing number of their models are getting aggressive is a big warning flag.

[GCANE]

I have a feeling this thread could be a long one

and entertaining.

[Stormcenter]

If this all (hurricane & FL. scenario) pans out the media will be all over it.

[KWT]

Worth watching to see where any tighter circulation pops up in the enxt few days, that is key to what model solution will be right in the medium term.

The first issue is Hispaniola...the GFS takes it right over it and right along the spine of the island at that. The ECM is a touch further north due to its more northerly setting up of the system in the first place.

Lets see if the 12z carries on that trend.

[Portastorm]

If this all (hurricane & FL. scenario) pans out the media will be all over it.

True and history will also show that the first big named storm of the season usually yields extensive media hits. If this system pans out, get ready for that.

[KWT]

Fwiw, I wouldn't be shcoked if the 12z suite moves westward, may mean the ECM drops it again though due to land interaction but if that happens enough its going to eventually get going whether its the Gulf/SW Atlantic or even the Caribbean.

GFS has been very consistant, lets see if the 12z run carries on the confidence.

[gatorcane]

12Z NAM. You can see the slight weakness there north of the system between the two Highs at 84 hours...as a trough is swinging through Eastern North America..that would induce a WNW motion with some slowdown in forward speed...

[caneseddy]

12z GFS running in about 30 minutes.....dum dum dum

[KWT]

That is a pretty worrying track there from the NAM, would avoid Hispaniola and head into the Bahamas region as a strengthening system.

[caneseddy]

Looking at this timeline, I keep reliving the CFS model that was posted last month which showed a tropical system impacting Florida on the 26th of August. Cycloneye posted it

[clfenwi]

First run of the tropical models:

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 181512
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1512 UTC THU AUG 18 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972011) 20110818 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110818  1200   110819  0000   110819  1200   110820  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.5N  37.9W   14.0N  40.8W   14.6N  44.6W   15.7N  49.0W
BAMD    13.5N  37.9W   14.1N  40.9W   14.8N  44.4W   15.6N  48.0W
BAMM    13.5N  37.9W   14.1N  40.8W   14.9N  44.5W   16.0N  48.7W
LBAR    13.5N  37.9W   14.0N  40.6W   14.7N  43.7W   15.8N  46.8W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          41KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          41KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110820  1200   110821  1200   110822  1200   110823  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.7N  53.8W   18.9N  62.9W   19.9N  70.6W   19.4N  76.2W
BAMD    16.4N  51.6W   18.4N  58.3W   20.2N  63.1W   22.0N  66.6W
BAMM    17.1N  53.1W   19.3N  61.5W   20.7N  68.8W   20.8N  74.6W
LBAR    16.6N  50.1W   18.1N  56.2W   18.9N  60.9W   18.1N  53.6W
SHIP        51KTS          68KTS          77KTS          80KTS
DSHP        51KTS          68KTS          77KTS          80KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.5N LONCUR =  37.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  13.2N LONM12 =  35.6W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  12.7N LONM24 =  33.5W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN





[KWT]

Not all that agressive to start with by SHIPS standards.

BAMD is the only one that gains real northward latitude at the end moving at 300 degrees between 96-120.