ATL: IRENE - Models

[CrazyC83]

Is this correct - land doesn't weaken storms as fast at higher latitudes due to baroclinic influences?

[GoneBabyGone]

12Z NOGAPS 84h

http://img831.imageshack.us/img831/2166/082512znogaps84h.gif

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Complete loop

Oh jeez that looks bad for NJ/NY/DE

[Stephanie]

Thank you everyone for the images you are sharing with us and thank you Ivanhater for the reminder of the quotes!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Is this correct - land doesn't weaken storms as fast at higher latitudes due to baroclinic influences?

It depends how the TC interacts with the Trough, and the TC orientation to the over all multi-level flow. For example last year Hurricane Igor actually strengthened from a 65 kt (75 mph) system to a 75 kt (85 mph) system because of baroclinicity at a high latitude just before reaching Newfoundland, and becoming fully extratropical.

[CrazyC83]

That GFS run is slightly to the right of the previous one? Seems quite reasonable to me.

[PTrackerLA]

Can someone post the GFS model track graphic that has the past 4 GFS runs on it?

[RevDodd]

Looks like NOGAPS weakens that second trough quite a bit.

[pgoss11]

Looks like NOGAPS weakens that second trough quite a bit.

thinks so too.. looks like lf would be Wilmington

[pgoss11]

Looks like NOGAPS weakens that second trough quite a bit.

thinks so too.. looks like lf would be Wilmington

[CrazyC83]

Looks like NOGAPS weakens that second trough quite a bit.

thinks so too.. looks like lf would be Wilmington

A Wilmington landfall gives it more time to weaken over eastern North Carolina.

[BUD]

12Z NOGAPS 54h

http://img109.imageshack.us/img109/6782/082512znogaps54h.gif[/img]

That's getting to close for comfort,

Yes sir it is.I hope Haley is watching this.

[Okibeach]

0z ECMWF 75 hr
<http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=25.9&lon=-76.8&zoom=6&type=hyb&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=1&hur.wr=0&hur.cod=1&hur.fx=1&hur.obs=1&fire=0&ft=0&sl=0>

Hope this link works

Guess not, Should have been 0z ECMWF landfall at Atlantic Beach NC,

[southerngale]

That GFS run is slightly to the right of the previous one? Seems quite reasonable to me.

I haven't done a side by side comparison for the whole run, but I believe it only starts out slightly to the right.

Here's a comparison of the 6z GFS at 54 hours and the 12z GFS at 48 hours. Almost identical.


6z GFS at 54 hours






12z GFS 48 hours

[clfenwi]

12Z HWRF wind swath Bit of a shift to the right compared to 06Z.



Complete loop

54h landfall ivo Ocracoke, then back to sea IVO Nags Head. Second landfall on Long Island at 75h.

[CrazyC83]

HWRF has been a right outlier all along? That seems too far to the right. That suggests a Cape Cod second landfall?

[hurricaneCW]

So take the middle from the HWRF and the NOGAPS and that's where Irene is probably going to go.

[ncweatherwizard]

HWRF, along with GFDL, has actually been a left outlier for a while.

Now this isn't directed toward anyone in particular, but I feel some folks may be getting caught up too much in little model shifts from run to run. We're talking about changes of a few miles one way or the other every six hours. Heck, I could bike from one end of the 60hr forecast envelope to the other in a day. In the grand scheme of things, the results will be the similar regardless of what track among those within the forecast envelope Irene takes. We'll just have to wait and see what small, isolated area gets the biggest impact.

[Jevo]

HWRF, along with GFDL, has actually been a left outlier for a while.

Now this isn't directed toward anyone in particular, but I feel some folks may be getting caught up too much in little model shifts from run to run. We're talking about changes of a few miles one way or the other every six hours. Heck, I could bike from one end of the 60hr forecast envelope to the other in a day. In the grand scheme of things, the results will be the similar regardless of what track among those within the forecast envelope Irene takes. We'll just have to wait and see what small, isolated area gets the biggest impact.

Very well put NC.. I even updated my signature to try to press the point... A hurricane is not a Dot or a Line

and without further Adeu

12z Euro +24



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[Jevo]

12z Euro +48



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[clfenwi]

12Z GFDL laid down a track similar to that of the 06Z, just a bit quicker after the 54h landfall.

Wind swath