ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
People, I think we may have our first hurricane of the season soon. The question is will it be Irene or Jose?
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"People might not get all they work for in this world, but they must certainly work for all they get."- Frederick Douglass
Looking really good, a bit on the broad side but it sure does look like a proto TS on our hands.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
50%
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT...LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF CABO GRACIAS
ON THE HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS
THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 MPH.
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED
ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA. THE LOW IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS
IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/STEWART
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT...LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF CABO GRACIAS
ON THE HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS
THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 MPH.
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED
ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA. THE LOW IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS
IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/STEWART
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Not at all surprised by the upping to 50%, its getting there bit by bit...
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
12z Best Track:
AL, 98, 2011081912, , BEST, 0, 133N, 196W, 25, 1006, LO
AL, 98, 2011081912, , BEST, 0, 133N, 196W, 25, 1006, LO
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED
ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE LOW IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE LOW IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
98L is east to Bermuda at 12z ECMWF.
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dmbthestone
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HURAKAN
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
dmbthestone wrote:Whats up with 98L?
A LARGE AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND
DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PARTS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.
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bob rulz
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Heading northwest from Cape Verde...that's usually a death sentence.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
bob rulz wrote:Heading northwest from Cape Verde...that's usually a death sentence.
Down to 10%...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Just crossed the 26C line.
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M a r k
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HURAKAN
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2 pm:
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION IN RECENT HOURS.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS LOW WOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER MARGINALLY WARM
WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION IN RECENT HOURS.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS LOW WOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER MARGINALLY WARM
WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH.
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Florida1118
- Category 5
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Its dead now...How sad...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE
AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. IN
ADDITION...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF THIS
LOW HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND IT HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15
MPH.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE
AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. IN
ADDITION...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF THIS
LOW HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND IT HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15
MPH.
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