ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

[Brent]

Behind 97L

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
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201108182057
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NOTIFY=ATRP
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2011, DB, O, 2011081818, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982011
AL, 98, 2011081818, , BEST, 0, 126N, 176W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[Battlebrick]

oh hey another one..

[Brent]

Might it be Irene?

[somethingfunny]

Dangit Brent, I wanted to make this thread!

I just posted this in the Talkin' Tropics Global Model Runs thread:

I'm not seeing any chatter about this. The models seem to be indicating not just Harvey (93L) and Irene (97L) soon, but also Jose and Katia. In fact, one or both of them could be classified before 97L if the 12z GFS is correct.

Neither one of them lasts long on the model run, but they're there nonetheless:

GFS


Euro


Another quickie surprise frontal development?


Wave exiting Africa


And look at how 97L has completely purged the Eastern Atlantic of dry air.

....

Never mind, I found the SAL.


Still a really nice looking wave with a good environment. I wonder why the models don't like it to be long-lived. The really potent Cape Verde storm the models show in about 96-120 hours is the wave behind this one.

[Florida1118]

Oh so they invest this one right off the coast? I see how it is lol. 97L isnt seeing the love.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 182103
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2103 UTC THU AUG 18 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110818 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110818  1800   110819  0600   110819  1800   110820  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.6N  17.6W   12.9N  18.7W   13.5N  20.1W   14.3N  21.7W
BAMD    12.6N  17.6W   13.1N  18.7W   13.8N  19.8W   14.7N  20.8W
BAMM    12.6N  17.6W   13.2N  18.7W   14.0N  19.8W   14.9N  21.1W
LBAR    12.6N  17.6W   13.3N  19.6W   14.4N  21.8W   15.6N  23.7W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          40KTS          49KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          40KTS          49KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110820  1800   110821  1800   110822  1800   110823  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.2N  23.4W   16.7N  27.8W   18.1N  32.9W   19.5N  38.2W
BAMD    15.9N  22.1W   19.1N  26.2W   21.8N  31.1W   23.2N  35.1W
BAMM    16.1N  22.7W   18.4N  27.6W   20.3N  33.8W   22.1N  40.1W
LBAR    16.9N  25.8W   19.8N  29.9W   23.0N  34.2W   25.4N  38.1W
SHIP        55KTS          65KTS          61KTS          53KTS
DSHP        55KTS          65KTS          61KTS          53KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.6N LONCUR =  17.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  12.1N LONM12 =  15.3W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  11.6N LONM24 =  12.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  300NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[Gustywind]

Impressive for sure...

[MGC]

Will have to see if any of that SAL gets ingested into the system....does look pretty good right now though.....MGC

[cycloneye]

Looks like a fish candidate.

[somethingfunny]

The global models have consistently developed it into a weak tropical storm and then dissipated it in a few days.

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks like a fish candidate.

agreed, which means that it will probably be a hurricane, lol...

[KWT]

Probably will be a system at some point given there is weak support from the models, nothing too strong expected but the SAL is alot less impressive then it was for 97L, so not sure why the models are quite as weak as they are...

Should be a recurver unless it times itself perfectly with the strengthening of the Bermuda high...which isn't impossible...

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared - http://sat24.com/gzoom.aspx?ir=true&reg ... x=85&y=223

[KWT]

Looks like it actually has some half decent rotation already. Well developed wave.

[cycloneye]

Introduced on the African Coast at 18z surface analysis.



Uploaded by mageshack.us

[KWT]

Not impossible this becomes a NS before 97L as well by the way!

That'd be pretty funny...

[cycloneye]

Maybe not a bonifide fish?



Uploaded by Imageshack.us

[TheBurn]

20Z NRL VIS-IR/LOWCLOUD

[Hylian Auree]

Reminds me of how the NHC began monitoring pre-Julia 2010; right off the coast and already developing.

[KWT]

Looks pretty impressive, would probably go ahead and give it a code orange.