ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

[StormClouds63]

Could be Harvey, Irene, Jose ... or "poof." Like ConvergenceZone said, the way 2011 is playing out ... this one probably becomes first
hurricane as it goes deep sea fishing.

[cycloneye]

[KWT]

I suspect given the position of the Bermuda high in the 5-10 day period it could well be a threat to funnily enough Bermuda if it does end up developing.

[fci]

We seen many an area emerge from Africa looking real good and then reality sets in for it and it takes a while to get going.

[Aric Dunn]

Very impressive wave.. likely going to develop rather quickly.

[KWT]

18z GFS has this at around 23N/50W...but importantly the Bermuda high is strengthening directly north of it.

[plasticup]

Oh crap, guess where I am getting married in two week. Fingers crossed this recurves sooner rather than later.

[cycloneye]

30%

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
WAVE IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

[TwisterFanatic]

Wow.. 30% coming off the coast!

[NONAME]

That's the fastest we have got to code orange this year.

[CrazyC83]

If anything will recurve this year, I think this is it.

[Steve H.]

Come On people. Still way too early to know where either 97L or 98L will wind up going. Over a week or more away for both. 98L looks to be the stronger of the systems to come into the Atlantic basin though. But the tropics are active....and so will be the banter.

[KWT]

Not at all surprised they went code orange, especially given the circulation it has at the moment!

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 98, 2011081900, , BEST, 0, 127N, 183W, 25, 1007, DB

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 190048
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0048 UTC FRI AUG 19 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110819 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110819  0000   110819  1200   110820  0000   110820  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.7N  18.3W   13.1N  19.5W   13.9N  20.9W   14.9N  22.6W
BAMD    12.7N  18.3W   13.2N  19.4W   14.2N  20.4W   15.5N  21.4W
BAMM    12.7N  18.3W   13.5N  19.5W   14.5N  20.6W   15.6N  22.0W
LBAR    12.7N  18.3W   13.5N  20.1W   14.6N  22.0W   15.8N  23.8W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          38KTS          46KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          38KTS          46KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110821  0000   110822  0000   110823  0000   110824  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.8N  24.5W   17.4N  29.3W   18.8N  34.4W   20.2N  39.5W
BAMD    17.1N  22.8W   20.6N  26.9W   23.3N  30.7W   23.8N  33.3W
BAMM    16.9N  23.8W   19.4N  29.1W   21.8N  35.2W   24.2N  41.3W
LBAR    17.3N  25.8W   20.7N  29.9W   23.8N  34.0W   26.2N  37.4W
SHIP        52KTS          56KTS          49KTS          39KTS
DSHP        52KTS          56KTS          49KTS          39KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.7N LONCUR =  18.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  12.3N LONM12 =  16.4W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  11.7N LONM24 =  13.4W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  300NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[Hylian Auree]

Yep, seems like this could be a Julia-like system, recurve included
Might even get a J-name, even though at this rate it's more likely this'll become Irene.

[OuterBanker]

Before we write this on off there was one storm that was near hurricane strength as it exited Africa. Her name was Donna.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Up to 40%

2 AM TWO

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ABOUT 325 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE LOW IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

[USTropics]

Looking good this morning on the first visible satellite image:

[cycloneye]

06z GFS has this system near Bermuda.