ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

[clfenwi]

!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al992011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108191924
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2011, DB, O, 2011081918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992011
AL, 99, 2011081818, , BEST, 0, 128N, 238W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2011081900, , BEST, 0, 125N, 241W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2011081906, , BEST, 0, 122N, 244W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2011081912, , BEST, 0, 118N, 246W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2011081918, , BEST, 0, 114N, 248W, 25, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,

[JtSmarts]

Wow, where did this come from lol?

[Battlebrick]

uhh.. where is this? sort of sudden..

[bohaiboy]

Looks like the boys (and gals) at NHC are going to be earning their money for the foreseeable future.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 191926
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1926 UTC FRI AUG 19 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992011) 20110819 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110819  1800   110820  0600   110820  1800   110821  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.4N  24.8W   11.6N  25.3W   12.5N  25.7W   13.7N  26.5W
BAMD    11.4N  24.8W   11.6N  25.5W   12.3N  26.4W   13.4N  27.3W
BAMM    11.4N  24.8W   11.7N  25.4W   12.6N  26.1W   13.9N  26.9W
LBAR    11.4N  24.8W   11.3N  25.7W   12.1N  27.0W   13.2N  28.6W
SHIP        25KTS          32KTS          42KTS          52KTS
DSHP        25KTS          32KTS          42KTS          52KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110821  1800   110822  1800   110823  1800   110824  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.2N  28.0W   18.5N  32.2W   21.9N  37.3W   24.4N  43.2W
BAMD    14.8N  28.5W   17.8N  32.1W   21.0N  36.1W   23.4N  39.6W
BAMM    15.3N  28.1W   18.6N  32.0W   22.1N  36.6W   24.5N  41.1W
LBAR    14.7N  30.7W   17.8N  35.8W   20.8N  40.7W   23.9N  44.5W
SHIP        62KTS          71KTS          67KTS          56KTS
DSHP        62KTS          71KTS          67KTS          56KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.4N LONCUR =  24.8W DIRCUR = 210DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
LATM12 =  12.2N LONM12 =  24.4W DIRM12 = 215DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
LATM24 =  12.8N LONM24 =  23.8W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[Extratropical94]

This is a few hundred miles SW of 98?!

[clfenwi]

This is to the southwest of Invest 98.




99 is the convective mass to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

[Extratropical94]

This is to the southwest of Invest 98.


http://img28.imageshack.us/img28/562/081918009899.jpg

99 is the convective mass to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Somehow looking healthier than 98 right now IMO.

[ozonepete]

You're kidding. Holy smokes!

[Nimbus]

98L was forecast to be a fish but from 10N this one might make the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

[northjaxpro]

Well, I have to say that our new invest 99L looks better than 98L. The tropics are really perculating right now.

[ouragans]

this season will drive us crazy...

[Extratropical94]

98L was forecast to be a fish but from 10N this one might make the Caribbean.

Models have it going NW from now on, they don't see a threat for the Carib/SE CONUS

[cycloneye]

Panoramic view of models with sattelite.

[CrazyC83]

That doesn't look like a separate system to me!

[plasticup]

I can't seem them both developing. One will come to dominate the other, if they are even separate entities to begin with.

[CrazyC83]

I can't seem them both developing. One will come to dominate the other, if they are even separate entities to begin with.

I kinda wish we would get a weak fish named Katia out of this, to avoid the Katrina comparisons if a similar sounding name is a serious landfall threat in itself.

[Aric Dunn]

This is silly... its the same system.... at it has NW flow going through the whole thing.. whatever..

ok I retract my statement... except the part about the same system.. it is the same system two LLC rotating around a "mean" center. typical east atlantic set up.. the northern one will move NW then W around the other.. eventually one weakens and is absorbed.. all in all through the models out the door. .

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... r2_floater

[northjaxpro]

This is silly... its the same system.... at it has NW flow going through the whole thing.. whatever..

Aric, seems that many are surprised NHC declared this area an invest. I have to admit I was too when this was designated this afternoon, especially considering that they just declared 98L yesterday. The early models seem to have this heading out to sea initially.