WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm (14W/Mina)

[RobWESTPACWX]

A look at ship obs across the region and the overall wind flow.

[Chacor]

Indeed, looks like Luzon saved Taiwan a lot of wind, but rain's still going to be an issue. Down to 70 kt from JMA.

WTPQ20 RJTD 271200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1111 NANMADOL (1111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271200UTC 19.1N 121.7E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 281200UTC 21.0N 121.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 291200UTC 22.6N 121.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 301200UTC 23.6N 121.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

[Chacor]

Very ragged now, exposed centre.

[Chacor]

JTWC now forecasting to cross Taiwan and head for China.

WTPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 19.3N 121.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 121.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 20.0N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 20.7N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 21.3N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 22.0N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 23.2N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 24.0N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 24.8N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 121.6E.
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTH OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 36 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

[dexterlabio]

Nanmadol surely felt the consequence of traversing north of Luzon in a slow pace...

[Chacor]

WDPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTH OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) INDICATES THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEGUN TO TRACK AWAY FROM
THE COAST OF LUZON AND CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS RE-CONSOLIDATED WITH
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING AND A BANDING EYE EVIDENT. A 271152Z SSMIS
IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE SUPPORTING THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK FT/CI ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 115
KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. TY 14W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE 27/00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF KYUSHU WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO CHINA, AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED SINCE THE LAST PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CHINA WILL WEAKEN AND PROPAGATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EAST SEA BY TAU 96. THEREFORE, THE STR IS NOW
EXPECTED TO RE-BUILD NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND PROVIDE A WESTWARD
STEERING INFLUENCE OVER TAIWAN.
B. TY 14W IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY POLEWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN TO WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STR. RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE 200MB ANALYSIS PROVIDE EARLY EVIDENCE THAT
THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN FILLING AND KICKING OUT NORTHEASTWARD AS
INDICATED IN THE MODELS. THE ASSOCIATED JET MAX IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS (NORTH OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA), WHICH WILL
RESULT IN FILLING/WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH. TY 14W IS EXPECTED TO RE-
INTENSIFY PRIOR TO APPROACHING TAIWAN UNDER FAVORABLE CONSITIONS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD TURN OVER TAIWAN IN THE EXTENDED TAUS.
NOGAPS AND GFDN, WHICH HAD BEEN INDICATING EXCESSIVE INTERACTION
WITH 15W HAVE SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY AND ARE NOW IN LINE WITH THE
OTHER DYNAMIC GUIDANCE. TY 14W SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION.//

[RobWESTPACWX]

And yes, great news for Japan, horrible news for Taiwan as this storm will rapidly weaken over the island, but all the rain has to go somewhere.

From JTWC's Text

C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD TURN OVER TAIWAN IN THE EXTENDED TAUS.
NOGAPS AND GFDN, WHICH HAD BEEN INDICATING EXCESSIVE INTERACTION
WITH 15W HAVE SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY AND ARE NOW IN LINE WITH THE
OTHER DYNAMIC GUIDANCE. TY 14W SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION.//

[RobWESTPACWX]

Open source reporting up to 6 deaths now in the northern Luzon

http://channel6newsonline.com/2011/08/t ... ilippines/

[supercane]

18Z JMA advisory:

WTPQ50 RJTD 271800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1111 NANMADOL (1111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271800UTC 19.7N 121.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 281800UTC 22.1N 121.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 291800UTC 23.9N 121.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 301800UTC 24.5N 121.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 311800UTC 24.9N 121.5E 240NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
120HF 011800UTC 25.4N 121.4E 300NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY =

Latest JTWC Dvorak estimate still a generous 5.0/90kt compared with SAB's 4.0/65kt:
TPPN11 PGTW 271809
A. TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL)
B. 27/1732Z
C. 19.7N
D. 121.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.5/W1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF 1.40 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 4.5. PT AND MET YIELD A 5.0. DBO PT AND
MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
27/1318Z 19.3N 121.5E MMHS
UEHARA

[phwxenthusiast]

hello guys.. as you know i'm closely monitoring Irene here because it's expected to pass near my area... it's highly likely that we'll lose power sometime tomorrow so i was hoping if you could post the 6 hourly advisories from both JMA and JTWC for at least the next 2 days, please...?? i always plot the positions using their warnings and i don't really want to miss any data... i'm guessing at least by Monday or Tuesday this thread will still be here so i can just read back and re-read their warnings...

hope it's okay!!

[RobWESTPACWX]

Still a decent circulation in the midst of this, with what looks like an eye wall forming back up.

[supercane]

21Z JTWC advisory:

WTPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 19.7N 121.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 121.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 20.2N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.9N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 21.5N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 22.3N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 23.4N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 24.1N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 24.8N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 121.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM SOUTHWEST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. LAND INTERACTION WITH LUZON BROUGHT ON
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS WARMING AND THE EYE FILLING DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE MOST RECENT IMAGERY, HOWEVER, INDICATES THAT THE
PROCESS HAS REVERSED AND THE SYSTEM IS NOW CONSOLIDATING AND RE-
INTENSIFYING OVER THE LUZON STRAIT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
NEARLY IDEAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OF 31 TO 32 DEGREES AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BELOW 05 KNOTS. A
271742Z AMSRE IMAGE CONFIRMS THAT THE EYEWALL WAS NEARLY INTACT AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKED OVER THE BUBAYAN ISLANDS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS CUT OFF, BUT
OTHERWISE OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. RADAR LOOPS FROM
SOUTHERN TAIWAN REVEAL THE OUTERMOST RAINBANDS ARE REACHING THE
SOUTHERN COAST, AND RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ON-SHORE FLOW IS NOW
BLANKETING THE ENTIRE EAST COAST OF TAIWAN. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
100 KNOTS IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ANALYSIS. TY 14W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR). THE 27/12Z 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE RIDGE EXTENDING OVER
KYUSHU AND INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA. TY 14W WILL TRACK POLEWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION DURING THE ROUGHLY 24 HOUR PERIOD
IN WHICH THE STORM CLEARS THE CORROSIVE EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION
WITH LUZON AND ENCOUNTERS THE SAME IMPEDIMENTS DURING THE APPROACH
TO TAIWAN. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CHINA WILL WEAKEN AND PROPAGATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EAST SEA AND THE STR WILL REBUILD OVER
EASTERN CHINA, STEERING TY 14W WESTWARD AFTER IT BEACHES ON THE
SHORES OF SOUTHWEST TAIWAN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND
282100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Typhoon Hunter]

Morning all!

Looks like Nanmadol is consolidating. CWB now doing hourly updates on their homepage.

Just at HKG awaiting for flight to Taipei, then long drive south to Taidong / Taitung area!

[StormingB81]

Morning all!

Looks like Nanmadol is consolidating. CWB now doing hourly updates on their homepage.

Just at HKG awaiting for flight to Taipei, then long drive south to Taidong / Taitung area!

hopefully you find it and it doesnt go where not forecasted again..lol

[Typhoon Hunter]

Morning all!

Looks like Nanmadol is consolidating. CWB now doing hourly updates on their homepage.

Just at HKG awaiting for flight to Taipei, then long drive south to Taidong / Taitung area!

hopefully you find it and it doesnt go where not forecasted again..lol

Haha yes! Hats off to PAGASA, they were the first agency I saw forecasting a landfall on NE tip of Luzon. I bet Aparri got hammered hard. I'd definitely have been there if the agencies and models had suffered the bust-of-the-year in track forecast.

CWB has very good stuff on its website including current obs and rainfall accumulation etc. Expect to see some outrageous rainfall totals in the mountains areas.

I'll be updating on twitter too @typhoonfury

[supercane]

Downgraded to STS as of 00Z by JMA:
WTPQ50 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1111 NANMADOL (1111) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280000UTC 20.2N 121.2E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 290000UTC 22.5N 121.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 300000UTC 23.3N 121.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 310000UTC 24.3N 120.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 010000UTC 25.1N 120.1E 240NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
120HF 020000UTC 25.5N 119.9E 300NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY =

Suspect JTWC will keep this as a typhoon on its next advisory given these Dvorak estimates:
TPPN11 PGTW 280011
A. TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL)
B. 27/2332Z
C. 20.5N
D. 121.4E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T4.5/5.0/W1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF 1.30 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. MET YIELDS A 4.5. PT YIELDS A 3.5.
DBO MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
27/1907Z 19.9N 121.3E MMHS
27/2034Z 20.3N 121.4E SSMI
27/2206Z 20.4N 121.2E SSMS
UEHARA

TXPQ25 KNES 272125
TCSWNP
A. 14W (NANMADOL)
B. 27/2032Z
C. 20.1N
D. 121.5E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T4.0/5.0/W2.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSRE
H. REMARKS...DT=4.0 BASED ON 1.1. BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=4.0. MET=4.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
27/1742Z 19.5N 121.4E AMSRE
...SCHWARTZ

[supercane]

03Z JTWC advisory shows the turn west Rob was thinking about a few days ago:

WTPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 20.5N 121.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 121.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 21.1N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 22.3N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 23.6N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 24.0N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 24.5N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.5N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 24.1N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 121.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTHWEST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 36
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Center visible on Taiwan radar:

JTWC prognostic reasoning:
WDPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. LAND INTERACTION WITH LUZON CAUSED
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AND TY 14W IS NOW STRUGGLING TO
RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE LUZON STRAIT. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE HAS FILLED AND A 272206Z SSMIS IMAGE IS
SHOWING ELONGATED BANDING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), WITH A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF FROM
PGTW AND TWO SURFACE REPORTS FROM NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NEARLY IDEAL FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION,
WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 31 TO 32 DEGREES AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR BELOW 05 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS MILD
SUPPRESSION OF OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT, BUT OTHERWISE
OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. RADAR LOOPS FROM SOUTHERN TAIWAN SHOW THAT THE
OUTERMOST RAINBANDS HAVE CROSSED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ARE
NOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ISLAND. TY 14W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). A TIME
SERIES OF SOUNDINGS FROM THE SOUTHERN RYUKUS SHOWS MILD HEIGHT RISES
AND SOUTHEASTERLIES BECOMING FIRMLY ESTABLISHED UP TO 20 KFT, WHICH
ARE INDICATIVE OF A BUILDING RIDGE THAT WILL ELIMINATE ANY POTENTIAL
FOR NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B THE BUILDING STR WILL BLOCK TY 14W FROM AN EASTWARD TURN AND
FORCE THE SYSTEM POLEWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF TAIWAN.
CONDITIONS ALONG TRACK ARE FAVORABLE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION DURING
THE NEXT 18 HOURS, UNTIL LAND INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN BEGINS TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AS THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL, IT WILL WEAKEN
RAPIDLY. AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE EAST CHINA SEA, THE LLCC WILL BE FORCED INLAND, WHERE IT WILL
ENCOUNTER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF CENTRAL TAIWAN. TY 14W WILL RE-
EMERGE IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT AFTER TAU 36, WHERE LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR VALUES AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SUSTAIN A WEAKER
SYSTEM. AN ANTICYCLONE BUILDING OVER EASTERN CHINA WILL DRIVE THE
SYSTEM WESTWARD, WHERE IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL FOR THE FINAL TIME NEAR
TAU 72.
C. TY 14W WILL REMAIN OVER LAND AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 120.//
NNNN

[phwxenthusiast]

seeing some very strong winds now here in the US; i might not be able to post anymore... oh man, i really want to see Nanmadol through Taiwan...

see u all later guys hope you continue posting those JMA/JTWC advisories, thanks!

[Infdidoll]

Stay safe James & Pat and all those who end up in harm's way wherever you are in the world!

Just hoping Aparri fared okay. I've seen some of the footage from Jim Edds from past Aparri storms and some of the population there seemed to live in simple construct homes with sheet metal roofing. However, I think they're much tougher people built of much more than my weakened western sensibilities. More power to them and hope they all weathered this just fine. I flew into Taipei, last year, and those mountains are beautiful but I wouldn't want to be near them during a good soaking!

Every DOD school system child was sobbing into their Cheerios, this morning, as we all broke the news that there would be no typhoon and they had better be prepared to get up for school in the morning.

[Chacor]

Really don't know why JTWC went with 95 kt.