WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm (14W/Mina)

[x-y-no]

Be safe James!

Looks like this one will be moving slowly enough you could chase it on foot ...

[ejeraldmc]

Winds are howling even here in Batangas...

[StormingB81]

WHo knows it can miss tawain...it has not been doin anything forcasted...lol

[dexterlabio]

So the eye just moved inland to Cagayan. Been "patrolling" through Facebook and I saw updates stating that winds are already nasty in places far from the point of landfall like Baguio and Ilocos region. I just couldn't believe that these areas are only under Signal #1 (only TD-condition expected). Here in the metro, rains continue to pour with some gusty winds. I wish everyone has prepared well in spite of just a day given for preparation.

I can remember earlier this week, this storm was projected to move northwards all the way but see things have changed by then. Not blaming any agencies though, I understand that long-range forecasts tend to change, given the existing complex setup (possible Fujiwara effect and monsoon gyre). It's just that the agencies in the Philippines might need a day longer to get ready for evacuation procedures and others.

[phwxenthusiast]

Nanmadol was kinda influenced by the topography of Luzon in terms of movement--sort of like what we usually see with typhoons suddenly becoming erratic once they reach the eastern coast of Taiwan... remember that we have numerous mountain ranges in Luzon as well--the closest to the Pacific being the Sierra Madre... simply put, this features can sort of like pull in the storm towards land--a movement that is not usually handled well by computer models...

based on the latest forecasts we could see this scenario repeating itself once Nanmadol reaches Taiwan... numerous models show a big time slowdown in speed as well as the movement becoming erratic.. GFS kinda downplays it as it still brings Nanmadol eventually northeastward... the rest puts Nanmadol towards the middle of Taiwan or at least brings it more to the north...

anyway... Laoag Airport which is about 150km southwest of Nanmadol has reported NNW (340) winds at 14 gusting to 30kts... pressure down to 996mb..

[dexterlabio]

Winds are howling even here in Batangas...

Yeah also here in Manila! Well I really have this feeling that this is a direct effect of Nanmadol's outer bands and not only because of enhanced SW monsoon because if it weren't, winds will not appear to be like this and the winds are coming from the northwest.

[oaba09]

Winds are howling even here in Batangas...

Yeah also here in Manila! Well I really have this feeling that this is a direct effect of Nanmadol's outer bands and not only because of enhanced SW monsoon because if it weren't, winds will not appear to be like this and the winds are coming from the northwest.

The wind is probably an effect of nanmadol...The rain on the other hand is most likely the effect of the SW monsoon...

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 18.2N 122.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 122.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 19.1N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 20.1N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 21.2N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 22.1N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.2N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 24.3N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 25.3N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 122.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
270000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND
280300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LAND INTERACTION WITH LUZON HAS CAUSED THE EYE TO
BECOME CLOUD-FILLED WHILE THE EYEWALL ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE
HAS ERODED. A 262219Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST SEAWARD OF THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF LUZON,
WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STORM REMAINING WELL ORGANIZED WITH
ABUNDANT DEEP CONVECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS STILL OPEN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT, AND OUTFLOW IN THE OTHER QUADRANTS REMAINS VIGOROUS. TY
14W IS BEING NUDGED TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA
DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE.
THE RIDGE WILL GUIDE TY 14W TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF TAIWAN. ALONG-
TRACK ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, CURRENTLY ASSESSED AT JUST 08 KNOTS, WILL
WEAKEN FURTHER OVER THE LUZON STRAIT, WHILE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. THUS, TY 14W WILL RE-INTENSIFY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CLEARS THE LAND IMPEDIMENTS OF LUZON,
THEN WEAKEN AGAIN AS IT APPROACHES TAIWAN. THE EFFECTS OF LAND
INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN WILL BECOME EVIDENT BY TAU 36.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 14W WILL ENCOUNTER COMPETING STEERING
INFLUENCES BETWEEN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE SETTLING JUST WEST OF KYUSHU. ECMWF AND JGSM MOVE THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND TO LANDFALL OVER EASTERN CHINA,
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE TRACKERS KEEP TY 14W EAST OF TAIWAN. THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS, WHICH PRESENTS A GOOD
MEAN BETWEEN THE DISPARATE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ALONG THE TRACK WILL REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, BUT LAND INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN WILL MITIGATE THOSE
FACTORS.//
NNNN

TPPN11 PGTW 270012
A. TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL)
B. 26/2332Z
C. 18.2N
D. 122.4E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T5.5/6.5/W1.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN
MG YIELDS A CF OF 4.0. ADDED 1.0 FOR BANDING TO YIELD A DT OF
5.0. PT AND MET YIELD A 5.5. DBO PT AND MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/2049Z 18.0N 122.7E SSMI
26/2219Z 17.9N 122.5E SSMS
UEHARA

[Chacor]

Luzon really taking its toll on Nanmadol.

[Infdidoll]

Luzon really taking its toll on Nanmadol.

Yeah...Is this really going to rebound? It's not looking good.

[HURAKAN]

landfall

[oaba09]

LATEST FROM PAGASA:


Severe Weather Bulletin Number SEVENTEEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon MINA (NANMADOL)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Saturday, 27 August 2011 Typhoon "MINA" has slowed down after it made landfall over Gonzaga, Cagayan.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 90 km Northeast of Tuguegarao City

Coordinates: 18.2°N, 122.3°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 195 kph near the center and Gustiness of up to 230 kph

Movement: Forecast to move Northwest at 7 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Sunday morning:
80 km North of Aparri, Cagayan
Monday morning:
160 km North of Aparri, Cagayan or
70 km Northwest of Basco, Batanes
Tuesday morning:
155 km North of Basco, Batanes

[Chacor]

If the JTWC and JMA tracks verify, Okinawa might escape what could've been a monster. Unfortunately Taiwan looks like it'll take a real soaking.

[euro6208]

a very powerful typhoon makes landfall on luzon. god bless them all...

[Harrycane]

I am just in awe by the sheer power of these storms! Respect!

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1111 NANMADOL (1111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 18.7N 122.1E GOOD
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 280600UTC 20.5N 121.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 290600UTC 22.2N 121.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 300600UTC 23.5N 121.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[oaba09]

Here's the latest track from JMA:

[Chacor]

JTWC now moves Nanmadol inland at the 120 hour forecast point and takes it towards the western coast of Taiwan.

[Typhoon10]

I understood all the previous tracks a couple of days ago had Nanmadol heading north towards Okinawa, yet is tracker WNW and hit the northern most tip of Philippines. So is it possible it continues on this track and actually heads towards the coast of China to the West of Taiwan instead or heading towards Taiwan?

[alan1961]

Amazing what a brush with with land can do...from a perfect
eye..



too this..phillippines did a decent number on Nanmadol and
may have spared Taiwan an even bigger hit in intensity.