WTPN32 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 27.5N 136.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5N 136.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 28.5N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 30.1N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 32.0N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 34.6N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 40.0N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 46.3N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 27.8N 136.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTH
OF OSAKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TS 15W HAS SHOWN ONLY MILD IMPROVEMENT IN
ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD
AND NEARLY CLOUD-FREE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 31156Z
ASCAT IMAGE CAPTURES THE EXPANSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. GALES
EXTEND OVER 200 NM OUTWARDS FROM THE LLCC IN ALL QUADRANTS.
CONVECTION HAS NEVER MANAGED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER.
THE MOST RECENT TWO MICROWAVE SERIES, A 311106Z SSMIS AND A 311715Z
AMSRE, REVEAL THAT THICK LOW LEVEL BANDING COMPLETELY ENCIRCLES THE
LLCC, BUT THE SCATTERING FREQUENCIES INDICATE THE CONVECTION IS
SHALLOW. THE CAUSE OF THE SUPPRESSED CONVECTION IS REVEALED ON THE
PGTW 311200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS, WHICH SHOWS AN
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM. THE LATEST AMSUB TEMPERATURE
PROFILE, HOWEVER, SHOWS A CLEAR MID-LEVEL WARM ANOMALY. IT IS LIKELY
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS NOT ALLOWING THE CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP ENOUGH DEPTH AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE CORE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ASCAT IMAGE, AS THE DISPLACEMENT
OF CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE LLCC IS MAKING DVORAK ESTIMATES LESS
REPRESENTATIVE. TS 15W EXISTS IN A REGION OF ONLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 27 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 36N
145E. THE ANTICYCLONE IS PART OF A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK AND IS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. AS THE BLOCK DEVELOPS AND AMPLIFIES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, IT WILL ALLOW TS 15W TO MAKE A GRADUAL
TURN POLEWARD. ALTHOUGH ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ADEQUATE
RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM, THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WILL SLOW
INTENSIFICATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG TRACK WILL INCREASE
TO 29 DEGREES AS TS 15W APPROACHES THE KUROSHIO CURRENT, WHERE THE
SYSTEM WILL PEAK AT MINIMAL TYPHOON STRENGTH. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER LOOPS AND SURFACE REPORTS FROM CENTRAL HONSHU INDICATE TS 15W
WILL REMAIN IN A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT THROUGH LANDFALL, AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS UP TO COASTAL
HONSHU, SO THE PRIMARY WEAKENING FORCE WILL BE LAND INTERACTION.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
FOR TS 15W TO RE-GROUP IN THE EASTERN SEA OF JAPAN, BUT BY TAU 72
THE SYSTEM WILL BE ENCOUNTER A SHARP DROP IN SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, A SHARP INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
INTERACTION WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE. BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96 TS 15W
WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WHILE ACCELERATING TOWARDS
SAKHALIN ISLAND. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISPARITY IN TIMING
AND THE EXACT POINT OF CROSSING OVER HONSHU, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO. THE JTWC TRACK STAYS EAST OF
CONSENSUS IN ORDER TO COMPENSATE FOR TWO WESTWARD OUTLIERS, EGRR AND
NOGAPS, WHICH ARE SLOWLING CONSENSUS AND PULLING IT WESTWARD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 14W (NANMADOL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
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12Z models:
