WPAC: TALAS - Remnants (1112/15W)

[RobWESTPACWX]

Didn't know you can read Kanji Supercane, neat. I heard about the one death via NHK as well. Sad news but could be worst given the high amount of mudslide footage I have seen on the news all morning.

[Chacor]

Waiting for the next SAREP to come out from JMA in about five to ten minutes. SAREPs used to be in readable form (TCNA21 RJTD) but are now in encoded BUFR form (IUCC10 RJTD). Very annoying.

[supercane]

Rob, a grade-school child knows more about kanji than I do, but I can muddle through.

Chacor, was wondering where you were getting those sat fixes without the SAREPs. Now I know where to look.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Chacor could you provide a link to that as well when it comes out?

[Chacor]

http://www.wis-jma.go.jp/data/browse?Ac ... tType=HTML

You can download SAREPs here, but you'll need a BUFR decoder (there's a list in the Wikipedia article on BUFR).

[Chacor]

Remains a 55 kt STS.

WTPQ21 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1112 TALAS (1112)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 34.2N 133.8E FAIR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 040600UTC 38.5N 134.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 050600UTC 45.1N 135.7E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[supercane]

Thanks for the info, Chacor. At first I tried compiling the NCEP decoder, but it's easier to just download the file and then use the ECMWF BUFR/CREX format checker to read the file.

[RobWESTPACWX]

I know a lot of military visit the site here, just wanted to FYI TCCOR ALL CLEAR has been set for every base in Japan.

[RobWESTPACWX]

I really do like how JMA does hourly updates as the storm is over the country or near it, really something that the NHC should take a look at and be like hey it works there. Just food for thought.

[Chacor]

Actually, NHC does do something similar (although not always).

Usually, if the eye of a hurricane is visible from US radar (including PR and the USVI), intermediate advisories are every two hours (instead of the usual three), and radar position estimates are provided every other hour. However, I don't think they do this for storms where there is no eye on radar.

[supercane]

Per Asahi Shimbun, death toll up to 2 with people in Aichi and Nara prefectures being swept away in rivers and 5 still missing:

愛媛県と奈良県で川に流されるなどして２人が死亡、徳島県や広島県などで計５人が行方不明となっている。

WTPN32 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 037
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 34.2N 133.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 34.2N 133.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 36.3N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 39.9N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 44.7N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 34.7N 133.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM EAST OF
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND RADAR FROM
JAPAN SHOW A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CURRENTLY
TRACKING OVER SHIKOKU. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND
A 03/06Z RADAR FIX FROM JAPAN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
03/06Z OBSERVATIONS FROM RJOP AND RJOT STATIONS NEAR THE CENTER
REPORTING 987 MB. TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD
ACROSS HONSHU ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND ALLOW TS 15W TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD. TS 15W SHOULD BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AFTER ENTERING THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ) AND FULLY TRANSITION INTO
AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS WELL AS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SOJ. THIS FORECAST FAVORS A
STRONGER RECURVATURE SCENARIO INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES THAN
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE PREDICTING. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z,
032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W
(SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

Per Asahi Shimbun, death toll up to 2 with people in Aichi and Nara prefectures being swept away in rivers and 5 still missing:

愛媛県と奈良県で川に流されるなどして２人が死亡、徳島県や広島県などで計５人が行方不明となっている。

TV continues to show massive flooding in a lot of the rivers, NHK keeps showing a few houses underwater in one location, I wonder if that has anything to do with it. Sad stuff, but glad it's not worst.

[supercane]

Per Asahi Shimbun, now 3 dead and 13 missing with 500,000 given evacuation orders (headline below):
台風、死者３人・不明１３人　５０万人に避難指示・勧告


WTPN32 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 038
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 35.0N 134.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 35.0N 134.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 38.0N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 42.0N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 47.3N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 35.8N 134.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z,
040900Z AND 041500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDPN32 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W WARNING NR 38//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(IR) AND RADAR FROM JAPAN SHOW A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER SHIKOKU. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE IR AND A 03/12Z RADAR FIX FROM JAPAN. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON 03/12Z OBSERVATIONS FROM RJOB AND RJOR
STATIONS NEARBY REPORTING 992 MB.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS
HONSHU ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND ALLOW TS 15W TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD. TS 15W SHOULD BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AFTER ENTERING THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ) AND FULLY TRANSITION INTO
AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS WELL AS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SOJ. THIS FORECAST FAVORS A
STRONGER RECURVATURE SCENARIO INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES THAN
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE PREDICTING.//
NNNN

[supercane]

JMA downgrades to TS:

WTPQ21 RJTD 031800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1112 TALAS (1112) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031800UTC 35.6N 133.7E FAIR
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 400NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 041800UTC 40.5N 134.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 051800UTC 45.3N 135.4E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

TPPN12 PGTW 031811 COR
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS)
B. 03/1732Z
C. 35.5N
D. 134.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC
OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
QUAST

[supercane]

WTPN32 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 039
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 35.7N 134.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 35.7N 134.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 38.8N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 43.9N 138.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 49.5N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 36.5N 134.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM NORTH-
EAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS EXITED INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN AS IT
TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME
GROSSLY ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BECAME EXPOSED TO THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BECOME SHALLOW
AND FRAGMENTED. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON RADAR REFLECTIVITY
LOOP FROM KINKI, JAPAN, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SUPPORTED BY
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
TS 15W IS NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS AND AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
THAT'S DIGGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, IN AN AREA OF STRONG (30-50KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO RECURVE AND ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TS TALAS WILL BE RAPIDLY
EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION, BECOMING A COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 24. THE MAJORITY OF
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO TRACK THE VORTEX ALMOST DUE
NORTH IN ANTICIPATION OF A MORE SOLID RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z,
041500Z AND 042100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[supercane]

Per NHK, death toll remains at 3 with 19 missing (headline below):
台風 ３人死亡１９人行方不明

00Z JMA:
WTPQ21 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1112 TALAS (1112)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040000UTC 35.9N 133.7E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 400NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 050000UTC 41.6N 134.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 060000UTC 44.4N 134.3E 110NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

TPPN12 PGTW 040015
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS)
B. 03/2332Z
C. 36.0N
D. 134.0E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/2049Z 35.8N 132.6E SSMS
03/2213Z 36.0N 133.7E SSMS
QUAST

[supercane]

JTWC writes its last advisory on Talas:

WTPN32 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 040
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 15W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 37.0N 134.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 37.0N 134.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 41.1N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 46.5N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 38.0N 135.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTHEAST OF
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED JUST EAST OF NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY ERODED AND DISPLACED NORTHEAST-
WARD AS THE SYSTEM BECAME EXPOSED TO VERY STRONG (40-60 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME DISTORTED AND
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. A BROAD AND ELONGATED NOTCH FEATURE ON A
032213Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE COUPLED WITH A REFLECTIVITY RADAR LOOP
FROM CHOGOKU WERE USED TO APPROXIMATE THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM RJTD. TD 15W IS NOW EMBEDDED
IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE COLDER WATERS OF THE SEA OF JAPAN.
IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 12. THE SYSTEM IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY IN VIEW OF THE HARSH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 16W
(SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

NHK now reporting 9 dead 32missing, with over 1800mm of rainfall in some towns. That in non-meteorological terms is a stupid amount of rainfall.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/society.html

[RobWESTPACWX]

Just made this video as well... Likely the last one I will post on here with this storm.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Vq8ht0Gc40[/youtube]

[Chacor]

NHK now reporting 9 dead 32missing, with over 1800mm of rainfall in some towns. That in non-meteorological terms is a stupid amount of rainfall.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/society.html

That is incredible. If those totals are correct, Talas far and away has set the record for wettest typhoon ever in Japan.