WPAC: TALAS - Remnants (1112/15W)

[RobWESTPACWX]

why does the title say a Typhoon? Talas never reached that strength, just like 2004's Talas

Never reached it via JTWC, but JMA the official warning for Japan has it at 65kts or typhoon status

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1112 TALAS (1112)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020000UTC 30.3N 134.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 030000UTC 34.4N 133.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 040000UTC 39.5N 134.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 050000UTC 47.4N 135.9E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

TPPN12 PGTW 020014
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS)
B. 01/2332Z
C. 30.3N
D. 135.2E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/3.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO WARM
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE WRAP OF 0.35
YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. PT AGREES, WHILE MET IS 1.5. FT BASED ON PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HOUGH

[supercane]

WTPN32 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 30.3N 135.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.3N 135.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 32.4N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 34.6N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 37.1N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 39.6N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 45.5N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 30.8N 135.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
020000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND
030300Z.//
NNNN

WDPN32 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR
32//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 15W IS ZEROING IN ON OSAKA BAY AND
THE KANSAI REGION OF HONSHU WHILE MAINTAINING A STEADY INTENSITY.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EXPANDING EVEN MORE. THE DIAMETER OF THE
OPEN AREA IS NOW 140 NM. THE SIZE OF THE LLCC AND THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE HAVE PREVENTED CONVECTION FROM CONSOLIDATING OVER THE
SYSTEM. THE OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE BRINGING HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO
SHIKOKU AND THE WAKAYAMA PREFECTURE. COASTAL STATIONS ARE REPORTING
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS, AND THE 011200Z SOUNDING FROM SHIONOMISAKI
(WAKAYAMA PENINSULA, WMO 47778) REVEALED 50 KNOT WINDS BEGINNING AT
ONE THOUSAND FEET. 20 KT SOUTHEASTERLIES HAVE SET IN AT TOKUSHIMA
AIRPORT (RJOS). A 011135Z ASCAT IMAGE CAPTURES THE EXPANSIVE NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM, SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OVER 200 NM
OUTWARDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 012256Z SSMIS IMAGE COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE
BANDS ARE BECOMING MORE ELONGATED AND LESS CONCENTRIC AROUND THE
LLCC, AND THE HIGHER FREQUENCIES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DROP-OFF IN DEEP
CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF
SURFACE REPORTS, UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM SHIONOMISAKI AND HAMAMATSU
AIR BASE, AND AN EARLIER ASCAT IMAGE RATHER THAN SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES. THE EXPANSIVENESS OF TS 15W IS MAKING FOR DVORAK
ESTIMATES THAT ARE BELOW ACTUAL INTENSITY. ANIMATED WATER
VAPORIMAGERY REVEALS A WELL-DEVELOPED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ON
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AS THE STORM TAPS INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT WILL COME INTO PLAY AFTER
THE STORM CROSSES HONSHU. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS UNDER 10
KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) HAS INCREASED TO 28 DEGREES.
TS 15W IS BEING STEERED ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF A BLOCKING RIDGE
THAT HAS SET UP OVER WESTPAC. THE OMEGA BLOCK IS DRIVING TS 15W
TOWARDS OSAKA BAY AND THE KANSAI REGION OF HONSHU.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 15W WILL CONTINUE STEERING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF A
BLOCKING RIDGE THAT HAS SET UP OVER WESTPAC. THERE REMAINS A
REASONABLE CHANCE FOR MILD INTENSIFICATION BEFORE TS 15W FEELS THE
EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION. THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS WELL-
ESTABLISHED SO OUTFLOW WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH, BUT SST WILL INCREASE
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO AS THE STORM CROSSES THE KUROSHIO CURRENT. THE
BLOCK WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM POLEWARD AND INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN NEAR
TAU 30, WHERE IT WILL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO
RE-GROUP. NORTH OF 37 DEGREES LATITUDE, HOWEVER, TS 15W WILL
ENCOUNTER A SHARP INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, A SHARP DROP IN
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND INTERACTION WITH A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY
IN A VERY BRIEF PERIOD. TS 15W WILL THEN GO THROUGH A RAPID
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS (XTT) WHILE ACCELERATING TO THE
NORTHEAST. THICKNESS PROGS ARE SPEEDING UP THE PROCESS, INDICATING
XTT COMPLETION NEAR 40N, SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48. THE UPSTREAM ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENCROACHING MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM FORESHADOWS A
VIGOROUS TRANSITION INTO AN EXPANSIVE, GALE FORCE MID-LATITUDE LOW.
ALTHOUGH MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND
MOVING THE TRACK EASTWARD, THEY ARE STILL SHOWING A TENDENCY TO
STEER THE VORTEX TOWARDS THE 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS, A COMMON
OCCURRENCE DURING XTT. THE ONLY GUIDANCE HANDLING THE XTT PROCESS
CAPABLY IS ECMWF. THE JTWC FORECAST STAYS WELL RIGGHT OF, AND FASTER
THAN CONSENSUS, AND CLOSE TO ECMWF.//
NNNN

WTPQ31 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 1112 TALAS (1112)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 020000 UTC IS FAIR.
TY WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
TY WILL RECURVE WITHIN 24 HOURS FROM 020000 UTC.
TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TY WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO STS WITHIN 12 HOURS.
TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO LOW SST AREA
TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.
TY WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 72 HOURS.=

[euro6208]

poor talas. since it's birth, this system never intensified rapidly because of its large size and that upper level low over the center. if it weren't for those, i think this should be stronger but talas is slowly dying ....

talas about to hit japan. may god bless everyone...

[RobWESTPACWX]

Landfall currently occurring

[supercane]

Hope you're doing okay there, Rob.
06Z JMA downgrades to STS:

WTPQ21 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1112 TALAS (1112) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020600UTC 31.3N 134.6E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 030600UTC 36.0N 133.7E 75NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 040600UTC 42.1N 135.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 050600UTC 49.9N 138.3E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[FireRat]

hopefully it won't turn out as bad for Japan, they've seen enough of Nature's wrath this year. I am hopeful the large size of the storm will prevent it from becoming anything serious for them as it will remain weak. Just watch for floods, if Talas slows to a crawl in the next few days IMO.

[RobWESTPACWX]

The flooding here is the main thing the media is keying in on here right now, as for here on the kanto plain, lots of fast moving clouds with the occasional rain but nothing severe.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Gusts to around 70kts at this station - going to be a rough old night across portions of Japan!

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today-74372.html?groupCode=56&areaCode=

[phwxenthusiast]

interesting that Muroto has reported a pressure rise for the past two hours... is it possible we see different pressure minima as well as wind maxima with Talas??

anyway, some VERY HEAVY rain now falling across Shikoku and Kii Peninsula.. some stations actually reporting 50mm in just one hour!! slight chance of some tornadic activities as well according to JMA (level 2 in some parts!!!)...

radar:



tornado threat map also from JMA

[Chacor]

As Talas doesn't have a true eye, I'm not sure if I would trust pressure readings at face value.

Level 2 severe weather probability is not very common, just shows how intense some of the rainbands are.

[KWT]

The flooding here is the main thing the media is keying in on here right now, as for here on the kanto plain, lots of fast moving clouds with the occasional rain but nothing severe.

Given the current radar that seems reasonable, alot of rain coming down with Talas.

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 021500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1112 TALAS (1112)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021500UTC 32.6N 134.0E FAIR
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 031500UTC 37.0N 133.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 041200UTC 42.2N 135.7E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 051200UTC 49.9N 137.9E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Down to 55 kt and amazingly, still offshore. Most bands are well onshore now though.

[supercane]

Advisory roundup:

WTPQ21 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1112 TALAS (1112)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 33.0N 133.8E FAIR
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 031800UTC 36.9N 134.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 041800UTC 43.1N 135.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 051800UTC 49.7N 138.4E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

WTPN32 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 33.1N 134.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.1N 134.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 35.0N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 37.1N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 40.0N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 44.2N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 33.6N 134.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED JUST WEST OF NORTHWARD AT 09 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE CONVECTIVE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM ARE BECOMING FRAGMENTED
AS IT IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO EASTERN SHIKOKU. THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS BASED ON A RADAR LOOP FROM SHIKOKU. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WAS BASED ON NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SUPPORTED BY
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE STORM IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE EAST OF JAPAN AND CAUSE TS 15W TO RECURVE
TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ) AFTER TAU
12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN RAPIDLY ABSORB INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE,
BECOMING AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM BEFORE TAU 48. THE INCREASED VWS
AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SOJ WILL ALSO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM INTO A 30-KT LOW BY TAU 36. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE MOSTLY UNRELIABLE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
ECMWF, ALL MODELS ARE BRINGING THE VORTEX DUE NORTH TOWARDS THE
RUSSIAN FAR EAST AND INTO THE JET STREAM - AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO.
THIS TRACK FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF, RECURVING THE
CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z
IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.//
NNNN

WDPN32 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR
34//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KYOTO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TS 15W HAS BEGUN TO TRACK NORTHWARD AND MAKE
LANDFALL. CONSEQUENTLY, CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND
BANDING HAS BECOME MORE FRAGMENTED. AS EVIDENCED IN THE 020854Z
CORIOLIS IMAGE AND JAPAN RADAR IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM HAS RETAINED A
150-180 NM DIAMETER ANNULUS. JAPAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF SHIKOKU ARE REPORTING 40-45 KNOT WINDS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY
THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER THE EAST SEA. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE RADAR IMAGERY AND
FIXES FROM JAPAN. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 15W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE INTO THE WEAKNESS EVIDENT ON THE 02/00Z 500 MB
ANALYSIS. FOR THE MOST PART, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE RE-CURVE SCENARIO, HOWEVER, THE JGSM, GFS
AND WBAR MODELS CONTINUE TO DRIVE 15W INTO THE JET WHILE NOGAPS AND
GFDN INDICATE SLOW AND ERRATIC TRACKS. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE
ECMWF AND UKMO MODELS IN ACCELERATING THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
TRACKS INTO THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EAST SEA. TS 15W IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 12 AND
SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 WITH THE MODELS INDICATING A CLEAR
FRONTAL SIGNATURE IN THE 1000/500 MB THICKNESS FIELDS.//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

Saw a max gust at my place of 43kts, was surprised it got that high, sustained only 27kts though.

[RobWESTPACWX]

O and I also made this this morning.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHjFLe69dpU[/youtube]

[Chacor]

Current sat fixes:
SAB 2001 UTC T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS
JTWC 2332 UTC T2.5/3.0/D0.5/24HRS
JMA 0000 UTC T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24HRS

[RobWESTPACWX]

Some footage

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzZztguzoBg[/youtube]

[RobWESTPACWX]

And here is a link to a blog with a slew of footage from a guy near Kobe.

http://chottomatte.net/2011/09/01/typho ... o-updates/

[supercane]

Good video, Rob. At least this system seemed relatively weak compared to earlier projections.

From Asahi Shinbun, JMA stated the system made landfall today before 10am in Kouchi prefecture near the city of Kounan in Shikoku. 1 woman in the same prefecture was swept away in a river and died, and 5 people are missing from Tokushima and Hiroshima prefectures.

大型の台風１２号は３日午前１０時前、高知県に上陸し、同県香南市付近をゆっくりと北へ進んだ。西日本から北日本にかけて断続的に非常に激しい雨が降り、愛媛県で女性１人が川に流されて死亡、徳島県や広島県などで計５人が行方不明となっている。

Advisory roundup:

WTPQ21 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1112 TALAS (1112)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030000UTC 33.4N 133.9E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 040000UTC 37.4N 134.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 050000UTC 44.5N 135.7E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

WTPN32 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 33.6N 133.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 33.6N 133.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 35.4N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 38.0N 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 42.6N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 34.1N 133.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED JUST WEST OF NORTHWARD
AT 05 KNOTS AND MOVED INLAND OVER EASTERN SHIKOKU. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.//
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WDPN32 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W WARNING NR 36//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED JUST WEST OF NORTHWARD
AT 05 KNOTS AND MOVED INLAND OVER EASTERN SHIKOKU. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BECOME FRAGMENTED
AS CLOUDS TOPS WARMED UP. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON A RADAR
REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM SHIKOKU WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WAS BASED ON NEARBY LAND AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND
SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE STORM IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS 15W
IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STEERING RIDGE AND CAUSE TS
TALAS TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN
(SOJ) AFTER TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN RAPIDLY ABSORB INTO THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, BECOMING AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM BEFORE TAU 36.
THE INCREASED VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SOJ
WILL ALSO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM INTO A 30-KT LOW BY TAU 36. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE MOSTLY UNRELIABLE. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ECMWF, ALL MODELS ARE BRINGING THE VORTEX DUE NORTH
TOWARDS THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST AND INTO THE JET STREAM - AN UNLIKELY
SCENARIO. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF, RECURVING
THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD.//
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