WPAC: TALAS - Remnants (1112/15W)

[supercane]

20110822.1300.terra.x.ir1km.97WINVEST.15kts-NAmb-163N-1440E.100pc.jpg
N of Guam:

[supercane]

ABPW10 PGTW 222300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/222300Z-230600ZAUG2011//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221951ZAUG2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 221800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 128.1E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 222100) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 13.7N 142.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 140 NM WEST OF ANDERSON AIR FORCE BASE, GUAM, AND IS
SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS CURRENTLY OBSCURED ON ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY BY SURGING CONVECTION, BUT THE 231200Z
PGTW STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALED A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH A WELL-
DEVELOPED SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD FEEDING INTO THE EQUATORWARD
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. A 222004Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS THICK CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE LLCC
EXISTS AT THE WESTERN END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, DIRECTLY SOUTH OF
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE 29 TO 30 DEGREES. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.7N
140.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 142.8E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SIGFICANTLY. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS FULLY EXPOSED AND A 222126Z SHOWS A LACK OF
ORGANIZATION. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER APPROXIMATELY 25 KNOTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AND
DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B(2).//
NNNN

[supercane]

00Z JMA analysis has this as a TD:
WWJP25 RJTD 230000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 230000.
WARNING VALID 240000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 998 HPA
AT 60N 171E BERING SEA MOVING SOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 15.4N 127.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 16.0N 127.7E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 141E 42N 142E
47N 152E 53N 159E 53N 165E 60N 168E 60N 180E 36N 180E 39N 166E 38N
150E 35N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 33N 127E ENE 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 23N 139E WSW 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 14N 142E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 48N 156E ESE 10 KT.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 30N 179E WEST 10 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 118E TO 33N 127E 37N 136E 42N 148E 45N 163E
45N 180E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[euro6208]

It is breezy, cloudy, windy and rainy on guam this afternoon.

W (260 degrees) at 20 MPH (17 KT at Anderson

SW (230 degrees) at 13 MPH (11 KT) at GIA

with falling pressures.

it looks like this will be our 15th storm.

[supercane]

WTPN21 PGTW 231530
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 185 NM RADIUS OF 15.8N 143.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 231500Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 143.0E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.6N
143.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 143.0E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AIR FORCE BASE, GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GUAM RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 230922Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWS A CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A
231118Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES A BROAD LLCC WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH QUADRANT WITH 10-15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
REMAINING QUADRANTS. THE LLCC IS LOCATED NEAR A DEVELOPING UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL
LOCATED NEAR 20N 165E AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS).
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND FORECAST MODEL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 12-36 HOURS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
241530Z.//
NNNN

WWJP25 RJTD 231200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 231200.
WARNING VALID 241200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 996 HPA
AT 58N 180E BERING SEA MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 36N 141E 42N 143E
47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 38N 180E 39N 160E 40N 152E 36N
141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 33N 127E EAST SLOWLY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 24N 136E WNW 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 15N 144E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 48N 157E EAST 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N 112E TO 29N 120E 33N 127E 36N 135E 39N 140E
43N 148E 42N 160E 45N 180E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1111 NANMADOL (1111) 996 HPA AT 16.0N 127.2E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[RobWESTPACWX]

It is breezy, cloudy, windy and rainy on guam this afternoon.

W (260 degrees) at 20 MPH (17 KT at Anderson

SW (230 degrees) at 13 MPH (11 KT) at GIA

with falling pressures.

it looks like this will be our 15th storm.

Thanks for the info, obs are often some of the most useful things passed on here, at least from my point of view.

..

On another note GFS really wants this to turn in to a monster.

[phwxenthusiast]

JMA now putting up warnings for this TD

TD
Issued at 21:55 UTC, 23 August 2011
<Analyses at 23/21 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N15°40'(15.7°)
E142°50'(142.8°)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

[euro6208]

000
WWMY80 PGUM 232156
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
756 AM CHST WED AUG 24 2011

GUZ001-GUZ002-GUZ003-GUZ004-242200-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN
756 AM CHST WED AUG 24 2011

THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ON A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED NEAR 15.8
DEGREES NORTH 143.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT

200 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
190 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTA
180 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN AND
190 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THIS TIME...THE SYSTEM IS
NOT EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER THE MARIANA ISLANDS...BUT IT IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...ROUGH
SEAS AND HIGH SURF FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND LAST OFF-AND-ON
THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND
THURSDAY...WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH SURF WILL
CONTINUE TODAY ALONG SOUTH THROUGH WEST FACING REEFS...SPREADING TO
NORTHWEST FACING REEFS THURSDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE ROUGH THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE DISTURBANCE IS STILL IN THE INITIAL STAGES OF FORMATION AND ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WEST OF THE ISLANDS...HOWEVER RESIDENTS OF THE
MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THURSDAY.

$$

M AYDLETT

it's been raining since yesterday and very windy and COLD!!!

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240000UTC 15.6N 142.2E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 250000UTC 18.0N 141.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Latest JTWC satellite bulletin has unclassifiable Dvorak.
TPPN12 PGTW 240028
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97W (NW OF GUAM)
B. 23/2332Z
C. 17.0N
D. 142.6E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN. LLCC IS BROAD WITH MULTIPLE VORTICIES
ALONG THE PERIPHERY. CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE SE
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC BUT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LINEAR
CONVERGENCE. MSI INDICAETS THAT IT IS NOT WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER AS IT APPEARED ON PREVIOUSLY ON IR. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO
WEAK TO CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HOUGH

[euro6208]

TPPN12 PGTW 240028

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97W (NW OF GUAM)

B. 23/2332Z

C. 17.0N

D. 142.6E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN. LLCC IS BROAD WITH MULTIPLE VORTICIES
ALONG THE PERIPHERY. CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE SE
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC BUT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LINEAR
CONVERGENCE. MSI INDICAETS THAT IT IS NOT WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER AS IT APPEARED ON PREVIOUSLY ON IR. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO
WEAK TO CLASSIFY.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

a very broad system. looks like we might get some soaking...

[StormingB81]

Re-Issued:

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.8N
143.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 142.4E, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN, AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTH AND EASTERN
QUADRANTS. A 232351Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS THE BROAD CHARACTER OF THE
LLCC WHICH HAS RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS (5-10 KNOTS) AT THE CENTER AND
STRONGER (25 KNOT) WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRAGMENTED BANDING
WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE LLCC IS LOCATED
IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 231530) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

[euro6208]

the winds are stronger no with winds up north gusting to 43 miles per hour. looking at the guam radar, it looks like we are in for more rain and winds.

[euro6208]

http://www.guampdn.com/article/20110824/NEWS01/110824013/WEATHER-UPDATE-Cyclone-won-t-come-Guam-rain-wind-rough-seas-expected?odyssey=mod|breaking|text|Frontpage

not forecasted to track to the marianas but we should expect to witness some periods of heavy rain, gusty winds, rough seas and high surf for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 16.6N 141.8E POOR
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 18.8N 141.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[supercane]

JMA 15Z update:

WTPQ21 RJTD 241500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241500UTC 16.8N 141.7E POOR
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 251500UTC 19.2N 140.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
JTWC reissued TCFA:

WTPN21 PGTW 241530
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231521ZAUG2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.2N 142.0E TO 21.0N 139.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 241500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.7N 141.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.1N
142.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 141.0E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTH AND EASTERN QUADRANTS. A
232351Z ASCAT PASS AND A 241056Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRM THE BROAD
CHARACTER OF THE LLCC WHICH HAS RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS (10-15 KNOTS)
AT THE CENTER AND STRONGER (25 KNOT) WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS
SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
251530Z.//
NNNN

TXPQ26 KNES 241557
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97W)
B. 24/1501Z
C. 18.1N
D. 141.0E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON IR IMAGERY.
POSITION BASED UPON ELONGATED MID-LEVEL CENTER. SINCE SYSTEMS CAN'T BE
LOWERED AT NIGHT, FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS. MET AND PT ARE 1.0.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...MYRGA

[KWT]

I'm guessing this is the western storm that the models are developing out of the pair.

Has a very odd presentation on the 12z ECm its gotta be said, huge eye!

[RobWESTPACWX]

To carry off of that KWT, I do agree, this storm is going to be very broad across, I am thankful for the Jet being just north of Japan with the front at the surface stretching across the country, this should really keep it out to see, Thank goodness.

[KWT]

Yeah, the only slight concern is this system could help to slingshot the system much further SE currently into Japan a good 8-10 days down the line.

Really depends on the position of the storms.

[euro6208]

TXPQ26 KNES 242140
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97W)

B. 24/2101Z

C. 17.8N

D. 140.8E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...LLCC IS DIFFICULT TO FIND WITH NO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES.
NEVERTHELESS, TROF AXIS SUGGESTS CENTER HAS MOVED LITTLE IN PAST 6
HRS. BANDING OF 3/10 YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET = 1.0 AND PAT = 1.5. FT IS
BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GUILLOT



at least a tropical depression but jtwc likes to wait until 2.0 mostly

[Chacor]

12th named storm of the year is TALAS.

WTPQ21 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1112 TALAS (1112) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 17.8N 141.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 260000UTC 20.1N 140.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 270000UTC 21.5N 140.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 280000UTC 23.2N 140.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =