ATL: TEN - Remnants - Discussion

[Jevo]

Just think.. without Irene this would be a 30 page thread... Such a large shadow she casts

[Florida1118]

Just think.. without Irene this would be a 30 page thread... Such a large shadow she casts

Well...idk about 30 pages, TD10 isnt really much of a system in anyway shape or form. I might not even get Jose, and threatens to die at any time. All it needs is 5 more mph and ill be happy lol...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102011
500 PM AST FRI AUG 26 2011

THE DEPRESSION IS BARELY HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. THE
CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE IS QUITE ELONGATED...WITH SEVERAL
SMALLER SWIRLS WITHIN THE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE. CONVECTION HAS
DIMINISHED AS WELL AND LIES FAR TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL WINDS ARE KEPT AT 30 KT BASED ON CI NUMBERS FROM
TAFB/SAB...BUT MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTHEAST BASED ON
VISIBLE IMAGES...GIVING A LONGER-TERM MOTION OF ABOUT 315/6. THIS
GENERAL TRACK AND SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE DEPRESSION MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A
LEFTWARD TURN IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOW
SYSTEM. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...MOSTLY BECAUSE
OF THE CENTER RELOCATION...BUT REMAINS WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

GIVEN THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THIS CIRCULATION...ALONG WITH COOLER
SSTS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...NO SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
BECOMING MORE HOSTILE. THE NHC FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL AND DYNAMICAL
MODEL FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN
A FEW DAYS...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT ALL IF IT
DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH EVEN SOONER THAN THAT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 15.6N 34.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 16.3N 34.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 17.2N 35.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 18.1N 36.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 18.8N 37.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 20.0N 40.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[expat2carib]

SPECIAL FISH ADVISORY.THE FISH ADVISORY BOARD (FAB) ADVISE ALL FISH TO SWIM CLOCKWISE AS ANTI CLOCKWISE SWIMMING CAN RESULT INTO SERIOUS CENTRIFUGE EFFECTS RESULTING IN DIZZINESS AND OTHER SERIOUS SIDE EFFECTS. NO OTHER ADVISORIES EXPECTED FOR NOW AS ALL SHIPS WILL STAY AWAY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO

FORECASTER MAHI MAHI

[Florida1118]

Still not expected to do much. Im going to say TD10 GET YOUR BUTT IN GEAR AND BECOME JOSE! I really hate un-named TD's. NHC still saying he could die and second, and is only going to weaken from here on out.

[Florida1118]

Its going to be deactivated at 11pm. Theres literally no strong convection with it, just disorganized green and yellow. This system is done.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102011
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...DEPRESSION DISSIPATES...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 34.0W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN
WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST. THE
REMNANTS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H
AND A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

The 11 PM advisory was the last one.

[Ptarmigan]

Perhaps its remnants could be picked up by another tropical wave and form another tropical cyclone............................... Katrina formed from a tropical wave and remnant of Tropical Depression 10.

[cycloneye]

Perhaps its remnants could be picked up by another tropical wave and form another tropical cyclone............................... Katrina formed from a tropical wave and remnant of Tropical Depression 10.

According to NHC,the shear will be so strong,it wont have a chance to regenerate.

REMNANTS OF TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102011
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND POORLY DEFINED...AND
RESEMBLES A NORTHEAST- TO SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED TROUGH. THE ONLY DEEP
CONVECTION IS A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE TROUGH. SINCE THE SYSTEM NOW LACKS THE
REQUIRED CHARACTERISTICS THAT DEFINE A TROPICAL CYCLONE...I.E. A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...ADVISORIES ARE
BEING TERMINATED AT THIS TIME. WESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SO REGENERATION
OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY.

THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO UNTIL
COMPLETELY LOSING ITS IDENTITY.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 16.0N 34.0W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH