ATL: TEN - Remnants - Discussion

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#121 Postby fci » Thu Aug 25, 2011 2:01 am

But models seem to say Fish.
Good, we need a stress break for at least a little while!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#122 Postby bexar » Thu Aug 25, 2011 2:03 am

Intensity-wise, what do the models say?
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#123 Postby Chacor » Thu Aug 25, 2011 4:09 am

WTNT35 KNHC 250857
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102011
500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 30.4W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#124 Postby wzrgirl1 » Thu Aug 25, 2011 4:11 am

The season is in high gear!!
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#125 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 25, 2011 4:36 am

not really that surprising this has been upgraded, will almost certainly be a fish given its formed this far east in this set-up this year. Should be Jose, I personally think we will sneak a hurricane out of it...
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#126 Postby dwsqos2 » Thu Aug 25, 2011 5:41 am

It's pretty funny, or depressing depending on your view, that the gfs, the one model showing significant intensification of TD10, dropped that solution on the 06Z run.
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#127 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 25, 2011 6:49 am

That is one of the worst looking TD's i have seen in awhile.. very elongated and likely not even a well defined surface circ.
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ATL: TEN - Advisories

#128 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Aug 25, 2011 9:19 am

000
WTNT35 KNHC 250857
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102011
500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 30.4W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN




000
WTNT45 KNHC 250859
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102011
500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS
ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE DECLARED A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEAST
TIP OF A CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AT T2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB WHICH
SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE CENTER LOCATION AND
THE RECENT WARMING OF CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER...A
MORE CONSERVATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY SEEMS MOST PRUDENT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.

SINCE THE CENTER HAS NOT BEEN WELL FORMED...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS A FAIRLY UNCERTAIN 280/10. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD
DECELERATE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD COURSE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT NEARS THE WESTERN EDGE OF A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC. GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALONG 35W IN 2-3 DAYS WHICH SHOULD
BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
POSSIBLY THE NORTH LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK AROUND
96-120 HOURS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE VERTICAL INTEGRITY OF THE
CYCLONE...WITH A WEAKER/SHALLOWER SYSTEM LIKELY LYING WEST OF THE
FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN.

EVEN THOUGH THE DEPRESSION SHOULD TRACK OVER WARM ENOUGH WATERS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS CURRENTLY
SHOW 15-20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION WHICH
IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL TO CONTINUE. ALTHOUGH A TEMPORARY
REDUCTION OF THE SHEAR COULD OCCUR IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE ABRUPT
TURN OF THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BEYOND THIS TIME WILL
BRING IT OVER 25C-26C WATERS AND LATER IN A REGION OF INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...SHOWING SLOW STRENGTHENING. WEAKENING
IS INDICATED AFTER THAT TIME IN LIGHT OF THE NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL
FACTORS THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER AND IS BELOW MOST THE
GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 12.4N 30.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 12.8N 31.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 13.5N 33.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 14.5N 34.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 15.5N 35.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 17.7N 36.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 20.0N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 22.5N 38.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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#129 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 25, 2011 9:20 am

This will likely be a forgotten storm.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#130 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Aug 25, 2011 9:29 am

All possible Jose is gonna do is leave a 2 week weekness for the CV storm lovers...Cant see anything traversing the Atlantic again till 9/10 or so..
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#131 Postby bexar » Thu Aug 25, 2011 10:47 am

a boring CV tropical storm... next
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#132 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 25, 2011 10:50 am

bexar wrote:a boring CV tropical storm... next


I would all systems to be like this one. I don't understand why people like destruction, especially in the shape the economy is.
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#133 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 25, 2011 10:57 am

continues to move west though as it remains a shallow system.

Will be interesting to see how much ridging can build in and how far west it goes assuming it stays weak for while.

You would expect there to be a whole lot more ridging for end of August then there is right now across the Central Atlantic.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#134 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 25, 2011 11:03 am

No, the Bamms were right. It got yanked north.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#135 Postby bexar » Thu Aug 25, 2011 11:36 am

HURAKAN wrote:
bexar wrote:a boring CV tropical storm... next


I would all systems to be like this one. I don't understand why people like destruction, especially in the shape the economy is.


I don't want landfalling systems either.

I just want to see CV long-trackers which are supposed to be around this time in the season.
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#136 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Thu Aug 25, 2011 11:57 am

Well its not looking as impressive is it was yesterday, so if it stays weak longer than expected, then things could change... i mean, sooner or later that ridge is gonna build back in strong enough to steer future storm further west. Its just a matter of timing IMO. Thats why my eyes are still on it.
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#137 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 25, 2011 1:20 pm

If a storm strengthens very early, could it threaten the islands off Europe or Africa?
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#138 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Aug 25, 2011 1:35 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102011
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOW MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 31.8W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FORECAST ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102011
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

AFTER BEING CLOSE TO A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT...THE CLOUD PATTERN
OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH A DECREASE IN
CONVECTION AND CURVED BANDING. ALTHOUGH DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN AT
STORM STRENGTH...AN ASCAT PASS AT 1126 UTC SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS
OF 25 TO 30 KT...WHICH WAS LESS THAN WHAT WAS MEASURED ON THE LAST
PASS. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL STAY AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE ASCAT DATA SHOWED THAT THE CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION IS
ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...WHICH IS NOT EXACTLY A
FAVORABLE STRUCTURE FOR MUCH NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION. IN
ADDITION...NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MODERATE TO
STRONG TODAY. THUS THE NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ONE IN THE SHORT-TERM. SOME INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY ON FRIDAY
WITH LESS SHEAR WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A BIG SPLIT BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS SHOWING LITTLE
STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS
FORECAST THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME HURRICANE. WITH SUCH A LARGE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...NO CHANGE IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
BEYOND FRIDAY. WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE BY DAY THREE DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN SHEAR AND DECREASE IN SSTS.

AN UNCERTAIN ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10. A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BREAK DOWN AS A TROUGH
FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE HAS THIS GENERAL IDEA...THERE
ARE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS ON HOW QUICKLY THE MORE NORTHWARD MOTION
STARTS. PART OF THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE TRACK FORECAST IS RATHER
DEPENDENT ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM MORE
LIKELY TO BE PULLED MORE TO THE NORTH THAN A WEAKER ONE. THE NHC
FORECAST WILL SHOW A NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION BY DAY 3 AND ASSUMES
THE CYCLONE GAINS SOME STRENGTH. THE NEW FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE DAY OR SO...CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF MODEL AND THE HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM
EXPERIMENTAL CONSENSUS. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A SHARPER LEFT
TURN IN THE LONGER-RANGE PERIOD...SO THE TRACK AT THAT TIME IS WEST
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 13.3N 31.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 13.9N 32.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 14.7N 34.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 15.6N 35.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 16.6N 35.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 18.7N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 20.5N 38.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 22.0N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#139 Postby bob rulz » Thu Aug 25, 2011 3:08 pm

This doesn't look good at all. There has been a little burst of convection in the last couple of hours, but for a while earlier today it barely looked better than 98L.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Advisories

#140 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 25, 2011 4:02 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102011
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION REMAINS ELONGATED. THE CURVED
BANDS FROM EARLIER TODAY ALSO APPEAR TO HAVE MORPHED INTO A
BURSTING PATTERN...INDICATIVE OF A SHEARED CYCLONE. THE INITIAL
WINDS WILL REMAIN 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
COULD PREVENT STRENGTHENING OF THE DEPRESSION IN THE SHORT-TERM
ALONG WITH THE POOR INITIAL STRUCTURE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY IS ON FRIDAY WITH GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTING A
DECREASE IN SHEAR WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM WATER.
HOWEVER...THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE MARKEDLY AFTER 48
HOURS IN ADDITION TO THE DEPRESSION ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS.
THE NHC INTENSITY PREDICTION IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED AND TURNED TO THE RIGHT...
WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/8. THIS TURN IS DUE TO A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WEAKENING AS A TROUGH FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS INTO THIS WEAKNESS. A LEFTWARD TURN IS
ANTICIPATED AFTER 3 DAYS AS THE CYCLONE DECAYS AND BECOMES MORE
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A
LARGE SPREAD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SEEMS TO BE
LINKED TO THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH. SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO GAIN MUCH STRENGTH...THE FORECAST LIES NEAR OR LEFT OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE
IN THE LONG RANGE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 13.8N 32.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 14.4N 33.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 15.2N 34.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 16.0N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 16.9N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 19.0N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 20.5N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 21.5N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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