ATL: TEN - Remnants - Discussion

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KWT
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#81 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 24, 2011 3:59 pm

GFS ends up having a close call with the Azores in about 7-8 days time, maybe a little too far east though IMO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#82 Postby bella_may » Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:12 pm

Still moving due west guys..... wouldn't bet on a recurve just yet
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#83 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:19 pm

Looks like the GFS wants it to go fishin.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#84 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:42 pm

Continues to become better organized.I say 70% at 8 PM.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#85 Postby OURAGAN » Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:50 pm

And it's more south than 12,9 N may be 12N
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#86 Postby TwisterFanatic » Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:53 pm

bella_may wrote:Still moving due west guys..... wouldn't bet on a recurve just yet


It's still waaaay out there, and it's going to develop pretty quickly. This is re-curve all the way. The models point that way also.
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#87 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:54 pm

looks like it went wsw when you look at sat. loop.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#88 Postby Patrick99 » Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:59 pm

Yet it's currently moving west at 10-15, so something to watch I guess. I mean, come on, it's not going to hit the next forecast point of *any* of those models.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#89 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 24, 2011 6:56 pm

70%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion - 8 PM TWO=70%

#90 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Aug 24, 2011 7:05 pm

Yes, 90L looks rather impressive tonight. If the convection sustains itself through the night, I would think that we will likely see this designated a TD or possibly even a TS during the day tomorrow. Also, it may be possible for this system to get closer to the Leeward Islands by the end of this upcoming weekend or by Monday. One thing I certainly will not do is speculate beyond five days with this system or any others from here on out, period. Irene has reminded me not to take the model runs seriously until the five-day window of a possible landfall anywhere.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#91 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 24, 2011 7:10 pm

The latest. Please,dont qoute the pic.

Image
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#92 Postby SeminoleWind » Wed Aug 24, 2011 7:12 pm

Oh yah this should be Jose in 2-3 days i think
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#93 Postby Annie Oakley » Wed Aug 24, 2011 7:13 pm

[quote="cycloneye"]The latest. Please,dont qoute the pic.

Test test....testing for quote without the pic........lol.
Glad you all brought that to our attention. Bet I have done it in the past. Now I know!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#94 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 24, 2011 7:16 pm

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#95 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Aug 24, 2011 7:26 pm

NHC in their TWD at 8 p.m. EDT position estimate for the 1007 mb Low pressure (90L).

A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 250 NM SW OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 13N27W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT.


The moisture envelope on WV imagery for 90L looks very good as well to help this system insulate from dry air out in the far Eastern ATL and upper levels look conducive for stengthening in the short term. If convection can maintain consistently over the next 12-24 hours, this will easily be the next designated name storm during this upcoming time period.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#96 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 24, 2011 7:38 pm

SSD dvorak.

24/2345 UTC 12.0N 28.6W T1.0/1.0 90L -- Atlantic
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#97 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 24, 2011 7:43 pm

00z Best Track

Has moved WSW in the past 6 hours.

AL, 90, 2011082500, , BEST, 0, 118N, 284W, 25, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
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#98 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Aug 24, 2011 7:47 pm

Luis, you are right. satellite imagery loops indeed confirm the W/SW jog in motion. 90L certainly appears south of 13N, which is where NHC positioned it in their 8 p.m. TWD.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#99 Postby hipshot » Wed Aug 24, 2011 7:54 pm

Annie Oakley wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The latest. Please,dont qoute the pic.

Test test....testing for quote without the pic........lol.
Glad you all brought that to our attention. Bet I have done it in the past. Now I know!


I just looked using the quote button, but I couldn't tell what to click to keep from attaching image files etc. HELP!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#100 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 24, 2011 7:57 pm

00z Tropical Models.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 250053
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0053 UTC THU AUG 25 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902011) 20110825 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110825  0000   110825  1200   110826  0000   110826  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.9N  28.6W   13.2N  29.3W   14.8N  30.1W   16.5N  31.3W
BAMD    11.9N  28.6W   12.2N  30.4W   12.8N  32.1W   13.5N  33.5W
BAMM    11.9N  28.6W   12.5N  30.3W   13.3N  31.8W   14.2N  33.2W
LBAR    11.9N  28.6W   12.3N  30.5W   13.2N  32.4W   14.3N  34.0W
SHIP        25KTS          32KTS          40KTS          50KTS
DSHP        25KTS          32KTS          40KTS          50KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110827  0000   110828  0000   110829  0000   110830  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.1N  32.4W   20.3N  35.6W   20.9N  38.8W   20.5N  40.7W
BAMD    14.4N  34.5W   17.3N  35.0W   20.7N  33.2W   25.6N  33.1W
BAMM    15.2N  34.6W   17.2N  36.8W   18.4N  37.7W   19.3N  38.4W
LBAR    15.7N  35.2W   19.7N  35.8W   24.5N  34.3W   30.2N  29.1W
SHIP        59KTS          72KTS          68KTS          62KTS
DSHP        59KTS          72KTS          68KTS          62KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.9N LONCUR =  28.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =  11.7N LONM12 =  26.8W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
LATM24 =  11.6N LONM24 =  25.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
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