ATL: TEN - Remnants - Discussion

[KWT]

doesn't look like it has that great conditions aloft and its going to be pulling away from the warmer water in the area its in during the next day or so...

[cycloneye]

Convection has bloosomed tonight.

[CrazyC83]

Probably will be Jose. Just another name that will be forgotten most likely.

[cycloneye]

Probably will be Jose. Just another name that will be forgotten most likely.

But will count for the 2011 total numbers.

[HurrMark]

Probably will be Jose. Just another name that will be forgotten most likely.

Like Lee in 2005...

[CrazyC83]

Probably will be Jose. Just another name that will be forgotten most likely.

Like Lee in 2005...

Yeah, basically I like to think of that year's Lee as Katrina's baby brother. But maybe he will make up for that?

[Buck]

I don't think it will happen... but a suprise hurricane, a la Julia or Lisa last year, would be nice. Add to the ACE and give us something to watch aside from Irene and her impending aftermath.

[Florida1118]

Remains a TD at 11pm...

[supercane]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 260241
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102011
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

DESPITE THE PERSISTENCE OF A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER STILL APPEARS TO BE DISPLACED ABOUT A DEGREE TO
THE EAST OF THE EDGE OF THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS. THIS STRUCTURE IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT SHOWN OVER
THE DEPRESSION BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE UW-CIMSS SATELLITE
ANALYSES. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED STRUCTURE OF THE
CYCLONE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY
IN AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS NEVER BECOME ESPECIALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR MUCH INTENSIFICATION...HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AS THE SHEAR
DECREASES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BY 48 HOURS THE CYCLONE WILL
BE MOVING OVER WATERS NEAR OR BELOW 26C...WHICH SHOULD HALT ANY
INTENSIFICATION. WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY 72
HOURS...AND SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM
THROUGH 48 HOURS AND LIES BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN LOCATING THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 295/8. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL
MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF A
WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FROM 24 TO 72 HOURS. BEYOND THAT
TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS
THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND THE WEAKENING CYCLONE COMES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS THROUGH 96 HOURS...AND IS SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE AT DAY 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 14.1N 33.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 14.7N 34.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 15.5N 34.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 16.4N 35.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 17.4N 36.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 19.5N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 20.5N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 31/0000Z 21.5N 43.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTNT35 KNHC 260231
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102011
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 33.1W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
WTNT25 KNHC 260230
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102011
0300 UTC FRI AUG 26 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 33.1W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 33.1W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 32.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 14.7N 34.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.5N 34.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.4N 35.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.4N 36.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.5N 38.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 20.5N 40.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 21.5N 43.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 33.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Florida1118]

Remains a TD at 5am, per the NHC...:

INCREASING
SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 WITH THE
CYCLONE DISSIPATING BY DAY 5. IS IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT VISIBLE
IMAGERY WILL REVEAL THAT THE CENTER IS NO LONGER WELL DEFINED...AND
IF SO THE CYCLONE COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.

Intensity has been dropped down to 40mph max, and it looks like we may have our first un-named TC of the year.

[cycloneye]

For the record.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102011
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

RECENT IR IMAGERY AND AN 0350 UTC AMSR-E PASS SUGGEST THAT THE
DEPRESSION IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...AND THAT THE CIRCULATION IS
SOMEWHAT ELONGATED TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS APPEARS
TO BE DUE TO CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS
ANALYZED BY UW-CIMMS AND THE GFS FIELDS IN THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT HOLDING THE INTENSITY AT
30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE
AND THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INCLUDING THE GFDL
AND HWRF SHOW LITTLE INTENSIFICATION...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AND SHOWS ONLY A BROAD PEAK AT
MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. BEYOND 48 HOURS...INCREASING
SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 WITH THE
CYCLONE DISSIPATING BY DAY 5. IS IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT VISIBLE
IMAGERY WILL REVEAL THAT THE CENTER IS NO LONGER WELL DEFINED...AND
IF SO THE CYCLONE COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.

SINCE A CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY...UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL
POSITION REMAINS HIGH. BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES AND CONTINUITY...THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 295/8. WHILE OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...A TREND TOWARD A WEAKER CYCLONE
SUGGESTS THAT LESS OF A POLEWARD TURN INTO THE MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST 2 OR 3 DAYS OF THE PERIOD. THE NHC
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
TOWARD THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THE
SHALLOW BAM AT DAY 4.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 14.5N 33.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 15.1N 34.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 15.9N 35.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 16.8N 36.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 17.8N 37.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 19.5N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 21.0N 41.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[hurricanefloyd5]

what no jose dang

[Macrocane]

I prefer not to have another weak named storm, let's keep Jose for the next system, the global models are in pretty good agreement that a tropical cyclone will form in about 6-7 days.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102011
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

A DECREASING BURST OF CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
DEPRESSION...THOUGH THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THE DILEMMA WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS THAT WHILE THE CENTER IS STRETCHING THE DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...EARLIER ASCAT DATA SUGGESTED THE CYCLONE WAS NEAR STORM
FORCE. GIVEN THE POOR STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS OF 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE DECLINING
CONVECTION...IT IS PROBABLY BEST TO LEAVE IT AS A DEPRESSION AT
THIS TIME. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING...HOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE
WAS A LITTLE STRONGER EARLIER TODAY.

WHILE ANALYSES FROM SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS SUGGEST THE SHEAR IS LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY...THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED...PROBABLY DUE TO POOR LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE. AT THIS
POINT...GIVEN THAT NONE OF THE GLOBAL OR DYNAMICAL MODELS
STRENGTHEN THIS SYSTEM...THE NHC FORECAST WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE
IN INTENSITY UNTIL THE CYCLONE DECAYS OVER COOLER WATERS IN A FEW
DAYS. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD DEGENERATE
INTO A TROUGH LATER TODAY...AS IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A
DEGRADATION IN STRUCTURE FOR THAT TO OCCUR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 305/7. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...WITH THE SYSTEM NOW EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER...
LESS OF A NORTHWARD TURN IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS. THE NHC
FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48
HOURS...AND IS SHIFTED LEFTWARD AFTER THAT TIME. THE FORECAST IS
WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 14.9N 34.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 15.5N 34.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 16.4N 35.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 17.4N 36.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 18.3N 37.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 19.5N 40.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 21.0N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

No Jose is forecast per 11 AM advisory.

INIT 26/1500Z 14.9N 34.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 15.5N 34.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 16.4N 35.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 17.4N 36.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 18.3N 37.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 19.5N 40.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 21.0N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

[mascpa]

I prefer not to have another weak named storm, let's keep Jose for the next system, the global models are in pretty good agreement that a tropical cyclone will form in about 6-7 days.

Where?

[Macrocane]

More or less in the same location where Ten is.

[HurricaneWarning92]

So it will probably be a fish, unless of course a strong ridge builds in to the north.

[cycloneye]

For models about future developments,go to "Global Model Runs Discussion" thread at talking tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=104813&p=2178021#p2178021

[Florida1118]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html

Convection starting to weaken/diminish...looks like this will be an un-loved and un-remembered TD now.

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