ATL: JOSE - Remnants - Discussion

[Graham1973]

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOSE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112011
500 AM AST MON AUG 29 2011

...JOSE RACING NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...EXPECTED TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.2N 64.7W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM N OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST. JOSE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND JOSE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE BY EARLY
TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

NNNN

[Graham1973]

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF JOSE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112011
1100 AM AST MON AUG 29 2011

...JOSE DISSIPATES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA...REMNANTS ACCELERATING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.5N 63.1W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF JOSE WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST. THE REMNANTS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/H...AND ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THIS MOTION WITH SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
JOSE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON JOSE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

NNNN




000
WTNT41 KNHC 291437
TCDAT1

REMNANTS OF JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112011
1100 AM AST MON AUG 29 2011

ALTHOUGH JOSE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A FEW PUFFS OF DEEP CONVECTION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS
BECOME DEFORMED TO THE POINT WHERE IT IS LIKELY NO LONGER CLOSED.
AS JOSE IS NOW AN OPEN TROUGH...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.
THE REMNANTS OF JOSE ARE EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPINGING UPON IT FROM THE WEST
WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 39.5N 63.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[CrazyC83]

Is it just me, or do models seem to want to deepen this thing on a run to Nova Scotia?

[CrazyC83]

So long Jose! Unlike Irene, you get the ! See you in 2017!

[HurrMark]

whoa, where did this come from?

another weak TS for 2011? This season would most likely end up with the lowest ratio of storms reaching hurricane status in history.

Not quite...the record would be a ratio of zero:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1914_Atlantic_hurricane_season