ATL: JOSE - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

They probably upgraded it to prevent Bermuda from getting caught off-guard.

No, that's not it. I believe they think it might have qualified for TS strength last night or yesterday, so it's sort of a post-TS upgrade rather than a post-season upgrade. But it's definitely not a TS now. Just a weak swirl.

[AdamFirst]

well, we wasted the J name for this year.

[tolakram]

Same thing I posted in the Irene thread ...

Jose and big sister Irene.

[Extratropical94]

They probably upgraded it to prevent Bermuda from getting caught off-guard.

No, that's not it. I believe they think it might have qualified for TS strength last night or yesterday, so it's sort of a post-TS upgrade rather than a post-season upgrade. But it's definitely not a TS now. Just a weak swirl.

If so, then they could've done the same with the area of circulation that developed from the front that produced Franklin (I think it was designated 96L or so).
Then we wouldn't have to use the name of Katrina's successor for possible land-threatening 92L.
Just a thought

[cycloneye]

57,it was a TS since 06z.

AL, 11, 2011082806, , BEST, 0, 297N, 654W, 35, 1009, TS, 34, NEQ, 45, 45, 0, 0, 1012, 90, 30, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 11, 2011082812, , BEST, 0, 309N, 657W, 35, 1008, TS

[SEASON_CANCELED]

is that little midget swirl Jose?

[tolakram]

is that little midget swirl Jose?

Yes, in the lower right hand corner of the image.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

is that little midget swirl Jose?

Yes, in the lower right hand corner of the image.

Wow. its so tiny, thats almost the size of tracy!

[maxx9512]

Jose would fit in whats left of the center of Irene. It looks pretty funny
in the same picture. I guess if it qualifies for T.S. status, name it.

[Recurve]

Awwwwww, that's cute.

(Don't flame me! I know any system could impact someone. Just some comic relief after the massive disaster that has been Irene.)

[Janie2006]

Granted that there's really no comparison between Jose and Irene at this point, but the juxtaposition of the two systems in the same satellite photo is rather striking. Looks like Jose is going fishing at the moment.

[Andrew92]

I'm sorry, but this is the most ridiculous upgrade to a tropical storm I have ever seen in my life. Where is the deep convection that the discussion claims there is???

-Andrew92

[Chacor]

Latest Bermuda METAR: TXKF 281355Z 14019KT 9999 FEW021 SCT050 29/23 Q1013

[cycloneye]

Bermuda radar.

http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112011
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 28 2011

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF JOSE IN RECENT
HOURS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN RE-DEVELOPING NEAR AND EAST OF THE
CENTER...BUT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE IRENE HAS PREVENTED ANY BURST FROM LASTING
TOO LONG. EARLIER ASCAT DATA SUGGESTED THAT THE INTENSITY WAS NEAR
35 KT...AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE CLOUD PATTERN...
THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
REDUCTION IN THE SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...IT WOULD NOT
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT WEAKENING AS THE CIRCULATION OF JOSE
BECOMES DEFORMED. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DISSIPATION WITHIN 24-36
HOURS IN PART BECAUSE OF THE SHEAR...AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS LIKELIHOOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/12. JOSE IS MOVING NORTHWARD
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. AFTER WEAKENING...THE REMNANTS OF JOSE SHOULD TURN NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE LOSING ITS
IDENTITY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 31.5N 65.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 33.6N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 36.6N 65.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[Tampa_God]

Do we know the circumference of Jose yet? Trying to compare his size and Tracy's size on what it would look like like over Florida and they seem fairly around the same size.

[RL3AO]

Do we know the circumference of Jose yet? Trying to compare his size and Tracy's size on what it would look like like over Florida and they seem fairly around the same size.

Since its almost extra tropical the winds spread out fairly well for a 35kt storm

34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.

However, don't insult Tracy by comparing this garbage to it. Tracy was a category 4 cyclone.

[Chacor]

Remember, TC size is not determined by physical extent, but by radius of gale (or sometimes, more rarely maximum) winds. There's no guarantee Tracy even holds the record any more, iirc Marco in the Atlantic a few years ago had a very tiny windfield and came close to the record, although the NHC never mentioned it operationally.

EDIT: I see that NOAA currently considers Marco to be the record holder. http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E5.html

[Extratropical94]

Do we know the circumference of Jose yet? Trying to compare his size and Tracy's size on what it would look like like over Florida and they seem fairly around the same size.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

Tracy had 30 mi. gale force winds, but it was a LOT stronger (Cat. 4 from BOM, Cat. 3 SSHS)
Tropical storm Marco (2008) had a gale diameter of only 12 mi. (TS with 65 mph winds)

[tolakram]

I'm sorry, but this is the most ridiculous upgrade to a tropical storm I have ever seen in my life. Where is the deep convection that the discussion claims there is???

-Andrew92

It was upgraded this morning just before deep convection dissipated. It was heading toward Bermuda. Of course before calling it "the most ridiculous upgrade to a tropical storm I have ever seen in my life" you checked out the facts, right? Sorry, but that statement is rather strong.