ATL: JOSE - Remnants - Discussion

[Macrocane]

I'm sorry, but this is the most ridiculous upgrade to a tropical storm I have ever seen in my life. Where is the deep convection that the discussion claims there is???

-Andrew92

I agree with you in my Unofficial opinion it doesn't meet the criteria to be a tropical cyclone, convection has not mantained enough time near the center.

[Chacor]

I'm sorry, but this is the most ridiculous upgrade to a tropical storm I have ever seen in my life. Where is the deep convection that the discussion claims there is???

-Andrew92

It was upgraded this morning just before deep convection dissipated. It was heading toward Bermuda. Of course before calling it "the most ridiculous upgrade to a tropical storm I have ever seen in my life" you checked out the facts, right?

There was almost no deep convection around the centre at the time of the first advisory (12z). Seemed to be more of a "oops, we missed this earlier, but since it might still qualify as a TC let's do it now" kind of upgrade.

[jinftl]

NHC seems pretty convincing that this merits its classification:

TROPICAL STORM JOSE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112011
800 AM AST SUN AUG 28 2011

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF BERMUDA HAS MAINTAINED ENOUGH
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...THE LOW HAS EXPERIENCED SEVERAL BURSTS
OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH ANOTHER BURST NOW BEGINNING JUST EAST OF
THE CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED TO 2.0 AND
SUPPORT INITIATING ADVISORIES. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 35
KT...BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS FROM OVERNIGHT WHICH SUGGESTED THE
MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AT LEAST 35 KT. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SHEAR
OF 40-50 KT OVER THE CYCLONE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF
HURRICANE IRENE...IS HAMPERING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR COULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT DURING
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DISSIPATION WITHIN
36 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE
OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEFORE LOSING
ITS IDENTITY.

GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE CYCLONE TO BERMUDA...THE BERMUDA WEATHER
SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.


Heck, if Irene was a hurricane last night into this morning with barely any reports of sustained tropical storm force winds as she made landfall in jersey last night...then this could certainly be a t.s.!!!

I'm sorry, but this is the most ridiculous upgrade to a tropical storm I have ever seen in my life. Where is the deep convection that the discussion claims there is???

-Andrew92

I agree with you in my Unofficial opinion it doesn't meet the criteria to be a tropical cyclone, convection has not mantained enough time near the center.

[tolakram]

You can use the floaters to still see what it looked like this morning.



This is what it looked like early this morning just before convection died out. A nice blob that lasted most of the night heading right toward Bermuda.

Again, I think I'll defer to the expertise of the NHC rather than saying there is no merit to the upgrade.

[Chacor]

That's what it looked like at 7:45 UTC... which might have merited an upgrade at the 0900 UTC advisory point. Instead, we only got a STWO raising it to 30%. At 1200 UTC it looked a lot worse.

[NDG]

Yeah, I was one of the ones that was really surprised that they upgraded it to a Tropical Storm with the way it looked like on visible sat first thing in the morning, it must had been the proximity to Bermuda for the upgrade.

[Riptide]

Jose is a poor name for a tropical cyclone. I'm happy that it was wasted on a shredded tropical storm.

Meanwhile, 92L looks promising.

[tolakram]

Well, we'll have to agree to disagree.

You have a well defined LLC heading directly toward an Island with people on it that's been bursting convection most of the night and showing this behavior over the last 2 nights. You know that intensity forecasts are horrid, so the safe approach is to assume it will continue to burst on and off and upgrade it to a storm. It qualifies, and any convection that mixes the winds down to the surface will create tropical storm conditions over Bermuda. An upgrade sounds like a prudent coarse of action and far from ridiculous.

The alternative would be to risk a big burst of convection right over Bermuda. Forecasting is a tough job, but someone has to do it.

[jinftl]

Nice swirl on visible satellite image:

[WeatherNewbie]

Jose is a poor name for a tropical cyclone.

why is that?

[Andrew92]

Alright, maybe it warranted an upgrade in the middle of the night....for a couple hours. But now?

Maybe just not my idea when I think of a tropical cyclone, I dunno.

-Andrew92

[tolakram]

Latest visible, another burst and shear is dropping as Irene rapidly moves away.

[tolakram]

Alright, maybe it warranted an upgrade in the middle of the night....for a couple hours. But now?

Maybe just not my idea when I think of a tropical cyclone, I dunno.

-Andrew92

Right, but they have to create forecasts, not nowcasts. The reasoning was made fairly clear in the original discussion.

...
THE LOW HAS EXPERIENCED SEVERAL BURSTS
OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH ANOTHER BURST NOW BEGINNING JUST EAST OF
THE CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED TO 2.0 AND
SUPPORT INITIATING ADVISORIES. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 35
KT...BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS FROM OVERNIGHT WHICH SUGGESTED THE
MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AT LEAST 35 KT. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SHEAR
OF 40-50 KT OVER THE CYCLONE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF
HURRICANE IRENE...IS HAMPERING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR COULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT DURING
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS ...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/al ... .001.shtml?

Just something to consider as we wonder why the NHC does what it does. Will be interesting to watch until expected dissipation in 2 days.

[jinftl]

Reporting station from Bermuda just reported sustained winds of 25 mph with a gust to 36 mph. In the past hour, winds gusted to 38 mph...and the pressure continues to fall. I'm sold on the need for the upgrade and ts warning.


http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =ISMITHSS2

Alright, maybe it warranted an upgrade in the middle of the night....for a couple hours. But now?

Maybe just not my idea when I think of a tropical cyclone, I dunno.

-Andrew92

[tolakram]

Latest analyzed shear is now just below 30kts



from: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

[jaguarjace]

Jose is a poor name for a tropical cyclone.

There should be a Hurricane Jason. haha

[Andrew92]

Well, now that I've cooled a little bit, here is hoping Bermuda stays safe. Never take even a seemingly weak little thing like Jose for granted.

-Andrew92

[Stephanie]

Jose is so small compared to Irene! He has some nice outflow to the north in the last picture. Looks like he's trying to do something.

[wxman57]

Well, we'll have to agree to disagree.

You have a well defined LLC heading directly toward an Island with people on it that's been bursting convection most of the night and showing this behavior over the last 2 nights. You know that intensity forecasts are horrid, so the safe approach is to assume it will continue to burst on and off and upgrade it to a storm. It qualifies, and any convection that mixes the winds down to the surface will create tropical storm conditions over Bermuda. An upgrade sounds like a prudent coarse of action and far from ridiculous.

The alternative would be to risk a big burst of convection right over Bermuda. Forecasting is a tough job, but someone has to do it.

I'm sure that the proximity to Bermuda was the main reason for the upgrade, as remnants of TD Ten have looked more impressive than this system in recent days. But they could have upgraded it to a depression and still issued a TS watch or warning for Bermuda. It's clearly not a TS now.

[HurrMark]

I wonder if this was to make up for TD Ten not being classified as a TS...probably not, but I agree with wxman57...Ten looked a heck of a lot better even when badly sheared than this thing is...