ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Located SE of CV islands.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al922011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108280043
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2011, DB, O, 2011082800, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922011
AL, 92, 2011082700, , BEST, 0, 104N, 145W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2011082706, , BEST, 0, 104N, 157W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2011082712, , BEST, 0, 104N, 169W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2011082718, , BEST, 0, 104N, 182W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2011082800, , BEST, 0, 103N, 195W, 20, 1012, DB


Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this system.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=111648&hilit=&p=2179793#p2179793

8/27/11 8 PM TWO:

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WAVE IS SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10
MPH.

[pgoss11]

Thank God we have somethng else to track... as much fun as Irene was to track.. I am so done with her!

[Ivanhater]

This should be a big one....most likely to recurve though.

[Ivanhater]

here

[SFLcane]

ECM developes this into a monster cane but early speculation on my part suggest recurve is probable with this one.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Well i think this one is the one that JB predicts will/could be a threat to the east coast. Of course hes human and makes mistakes but something to keep in mind. IMO.

[tolakram]

Reminder, when posting pictures copy them to an image storage site like imageshack (see browse and host it! button when posting) or imgur.com, do not directly link to images. Thanks.

[AdamFirst]

Well i think this one is the one that JB predicts will/could be a threat to the east coast. Of course hes human and makes mistakes but something to keep in mind. IMO.

Irene not enough for him?

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,lets not deviate from the topic on hand and that is invest 92L.

[gatorcane]

IR image of 92l just off the coast of Africa

[cycloneye]

First tropical model plots.

Michael,they go west.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 280045
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0045 UTC SUN AUG 28 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922011) 20110828 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110828  0000   110828  1200   110829  0000   110829  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.3N  19.5W   10.1N  21.3W    9.9N  23.3W    9.9N  25.8W
BAMD    10.3N  19.5W   10.2N  21.9W   10.2N  24.3W   10.2N  26.8W
BAMM    10.3N  19.5W   10.1N  21.7W   10.1N  24.0W   10.0N  26.5W
LBAR    10.3N  19.5W   10.2N  22.3W   10.5N  25.5W   10.8N  29.0W
SHIP        20KTS          27KTS          36KTS          46KTS
DSHP        20KTS          27KTS          36KTS          46KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110830  0000   110831  0000   110901  0000   110902  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.8N  28.5W    9.5N  34.0W    8.5N  37.6W    8.1N  38.2W
BAMD    10.3N  29.3W   10.5N  34.2W   10.1N  38.6W    9.1N  42.2W
BAMM    10.0N  28.9W    9.9N  33.5W    9.6N  36.6W    9.8N  37.6W
LBAR    11.3N  32.5W   13.6N  38.8W   14.6N  43.8W   11.2N  38.3W
SHIP        55KTS          68KTS          76KTS          79KTS
DSHP        55KTS          68KTS          76KTS          79KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.3N LONCUR =  19.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  10.4N LONM12 =  16.9W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  10.4N LONM24 =  14.5W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =  180NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  220NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Given its low latitude (near 10N) we should monitor this system closely, specially us in the islands. A stronger system like the GFS is forecasting will possibly recurve, but if this system is not as deep as the GFS is forecasting it in the next 72 hours then a more westward track should be more plausible.

For now, lets just keep watching it..

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Lol no idea, but he posted on twitter which sounded confident that the pattern will be there to shove it to the east coast: "East coast: next hurricane threat coming in 12-16 days! Euro now seeing it. I wasnt kidding around about this pattern" -Joe Bastardi

[gatorcane]

ECMWF ensembles 12z at 240 hours. You can see the different solutions which bring a weak system just north of the Leewards. This is long-range though.

[pgoss11]

The position of the Atlantic High looks like a recurve for 92L

[cycloneye]

Saved image.The BAMMS go west while the globals go to recurve.Which camp will be right?

[Meteorcane]

Seems like the track of this one could depend heavily on the speed of its development.

[SFLcane]

Some 00z models for this disturbance..

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


18Z NOGAPS...shows a little further west but starts to lift out at 50W....should have a better grip in a few days...


love the way NOGAPS forms a TS over Africa and plows the CV islands.... someone remind why we have this model again...

[cycloneye]

Adrian,that has to be an error by the Bams as they go west and turn right in a heartbeat.



Saved image