ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[Ixolib]

What is the website address on the truck? I can make out something track.com ?

THanks

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/hurricanetrack-com
or
http://www.hurricanetrack.com/

[Will504]

I get the impression that people I know (off these boards) think everything is over and done. Maybe it's a case of short attention spans. In any case, it's not quite over. Lee is going to interact with the approaching trough and produce a lot of heavy rain as it stumbles north and northeast.

[off-topic] And I'm not enjoying the model output, although I'm not quite buying some of the solutions for next week and beyond. [/off-topic]

Got to give the models credit, they foretasted Lee a week in advance when it was barely a wave moving through the Caribbean. Almost feel like these models are becoming our "oracles" the way we are relying on computers now to predict future events. It's one thing to have them predict where a storm might go, taking into account the current conditions and weather patterns, but now they are getting pretty good at predicting the formation of a system several days in advance before it's even a blip on the map. Oh how technology has advanced in the last 10-20 years. In another 20 years we might be able to predict exactly when,where, and how strong a storm will be a month before it even comes a wave. It's just wild to believe that the computers can be so good to predict the formation of something in the future when there is nothing there now.

[hurricanebuoy]

Houston are nary a cloud in the sky, a bit windy, and 95. The desert formation continues.

I just drove to the downtown area from The Woodlands. There are a lot of white, puffy clouds in the sky, but it feels so much nicer than it has for the past several months. The temp is lower and it's dry with a ENE wind. Much more pleasant. Take what we can get, I guess.

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/36/leelz.jpg/

Trying again to upload from ImageShack

[Ixolib]

STORM SURGE...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS OF AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...WITH
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL
ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS.

Since when did they start using "GROUND LEVEL" instead of "MEAN SEA LEVEL" as the indicator for "elevated water" (surge?)?? And what ever happened to "storm tide" and "storm surge"?? How can one determine what "Ground Level" is since all ground is generally at different elevations???? I mean, my ground could be higher than your ground. What ground are they talking about??? I'm confused....

[MGC]

Wish Lee would make his mind up and get out of town. Stalled again in Lousyana. I'm sure Lee is headed to Missasloppy soon. Just finished with another wave of rain, waiting on the next one.....4 days now of Lee's rains.....MGC

[wxman57]

We were told to watch out for gusts possibly up to 65 mph today and tonight. I would like to know the highest gust reported in Baton Rouge. Probably 40 if we are lucky, lol

That was because the center was forecasted to move over Baton Rouge...now its to the NW of Baton Rouge. Expect wind gusts just over tropical storm force.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

No, that's not true. The strongest winds have never been near Lee's center, they've always been about 120-150 miles southeast and east of the center. The reason that Baton Rouge (and other inland locations) did not see any strong wind is because Lee's strong winds were located over the water. It was not able to carry TS winds inland. Winds aloft did not translate to the surface well at all inland. So it wouldn't have mattered if the center passed right next to Baton Rouge, there were no significant winds near the center at all.

[stormy70]

Just rain here and there but seems to be quiet for the moment. I wonder what later tonight and tomorrow is going to bring as the storm moves to the NE? Any ideas? I am thinking more rain.

[3090]

Got to give the models credit, they foretasted Lee a week in advance when it was barely a wave moving through the Caribbean. Almost feel like these models are becoming our "oracles" the way we are relying on computers now to predict future events. It's one thing to have them predict where a storm might go, taking into account the current conditions and weather patterns, but now they are getting pretty good at predicting the formation of a system several days in advance before it's even a blip on the map. Oh how technology has advanced in the last 10-20 years. In another 20 years we might be able to predict exactly when,where, and how strong a storm will be a month before it even comes a wave. It's just wild to believe that the computers can be so good to predict the formation of something in the future when there is nothing there now.

I couldn't agree more.

Saw our local news tonight. Some models are beginning to forecast another disturbance by the end of this week, brewing in the BOC. Could we be seeing the beginning of what is about to come, as can be seen now on the latest satellite imagery, moving south? I don't know, but it will be something to track and would be very telling of truly how accurate these models have become.

[Jevo]

Got to give the models credit, they foretasted Lee a week in advance when it was barely a wave moving through the Caribbean. Almost feel like these models are becoming our "oracles" the way we are relying on computers now to predict future events. It's one thing to have them predict where a storm might go, taking into account the current conditions and weather patterns, but now they are getting pretty good at predicting the formation of a system several days in advance before it's even a blip on the map. Oh how technology has advanced in the last 10-20 years. In another 20 years we might be able to predict exactly when,where, and how strong a storm will be a month before it even comes a wave. It's just wild to believe that the computers can be so good to predict the formation of something in the future when there is nothing there now.

I couldn't agree more.

Saw our local news tonight. Some models are beginning to forecast another disturbance by the end of this week, brewing in the BOC. Could we be seeing the beginning of what is about to come, as can be seen now on the latest satellite imagery, moving south? I don't know, but it will be something to track and would be very telling of truly how accurate these models have become.

Indeed.. its being discussed in Talkin' Tropics

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=104813&start=2680

[seaswing]

Here we go....... blustery, raining and thunder....

Short Term Forecast
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
939 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-050245-
ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-
NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FERNANDINA BEACH...GAINESVILLE...
GREEN COVE SPRINGS...JACKSONVILLE...LAKE CITY...LIVE OAK...OCALA...PALATKA...
ST AUGUSTINE
939 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

.NOW...
THROUGH 1045 PM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO AREAS NEAR ARCHER...
MEWBERRY...GAINESVILLE...ALACHUA...DOWLING PARK AND JENNINGS. EXPECT...STRONG
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

[AdamFirst]

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 91.4W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF MCCOMB MISSISSIPPI
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON LEE. FUTURE INFORMATION ON LEE CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT33 KWNH...BEGINNING AT
400 AM CDT.

[cycloneye]

Last Advisory

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011

...LEE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE APPALACHIANS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 91.4W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF MCCOMB MISSISSIPPI
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF LEE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED WELL TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER WATER. LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS LEE BECOMES AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 10
TO 15 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAVY RAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE
FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING.

STORM SURGE...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE ALONG
THE GULF COAST FROM LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR LOCATION-SPECIFIC STORM TIDE
AND STORM SURGE INFORMATION.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON LEE. FUTURE INFORMATION ON LEE CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT33 KWNH...BEGINNING AT
400 AM CDT.


$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011

LAND INTERACTION AND CONTINENTAL AIR SEEN IN THE GOES SOUNDER
AIRMASS PRODUCT WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
HAVE TAKEN A TOLL ON LEE THIS EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DECREASED BOTH NEAR THE CENTER AND OFFSHORE AND WINDS HAVE STEADILY
DECREASED BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE...EVEN AT THE ELEVATED OIL
PLATFORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THEREFORE THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 30 KT...WITH THESE WINDS FOUND ONLY
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OVER WATER.

LEE IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH
WARM/COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS UNDERWAY EAST OF THE CENTER AND THE
SURFACE CENTER BECOMING ELONGATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN
THE PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS. AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH AN UNUSUALLY STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LEE SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 24 HOURS WHEN
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW EMBEDDED IN A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND THE CIRCULATION MERGING WITH A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW A 6-12
HOUR PERIOD OF GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER...AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS
HAZARD WILL BE HANDLED BY MARINE PRODUCTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. AFTER
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THE CYCLONE SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS.

LEE HAS MADE ITS TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST...WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 060/06. AS THE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTS OFF
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...LEE WILL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE CUTOFF. THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE...SHOWING A SHARPER TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH...AND IS CLOSE
TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE MAIN HAZARD FROM LEE AND ITS REMNANTS WILL BE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL SPREADING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT.

THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON LEE. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT3
AND WMO HEADER WTNT33 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 4 AM CDT. FOR MARINE
INTERESTS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 31.0N 91.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 31.3N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 06/0000Z 32.3N 88.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 06/1200Z 33.6N 87.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 07/0000Z 34.8N 86.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Janie2006]

Just rain here and there but seems to be quiet for the moment. I wonder what later tonight and tomorrow is going to bring as the storm moves to the NE? Any ideas? I am thinking more rain.

More rain and more threats of tornadic cells, especially if the sun comes out for awhile.

[Chacor]

To whoever changed this thread title to "Remnants"... Lee is still a tropical depression. To call it "remnants" when it still poses a significant flood threat may be downplaying this. As is usual with TDs over land that are a US flood threat and not expected to re-enter water, the HPC will take over warnings. The NHC's last advisory does not necessarily mean this is no longer a tropical cyclone.

[AdamFirst]

To whoever changed this thread title to "Remnants"... Lee is still a tropical depression. To call it "remnants" when it still poses a significant flood threat may be downplaying this. As is usual with TDs over land that are a US flood threat and not expected to re-enter water, the HPC will take over warnings. The NHC's last advisory does not necessarily mean this is no longer a tropical cyclone.

Lee is undergoing extratropical transition. This is pretty much a frontal system at this point.

The flood threat is not being downplayed, that's why it's being handed over to the HPC.

[CrazyC83]

Technically not remnants, since the header still says Tropical Depression Lee and not Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee or Remnants of Lee (those are hints it is no longer a tropical cyclone). At 4 that might change though.

[cycloneye]

After the last advisory is written on a system we always put the word Remnants.

[Will504]

Is Lee even moving? Looking at radar if there is any movement at all it appears to be to the east, nearing BR. It doesn't look like it has gone north at all for several hours. Wonder when this thing will start moving. I've been stuck under a feeder ban for 6-8 hours straight and the dogs really need to go outside to pee!!!

[Chacor]

After the last advisory is written on a system we always put the word Remnants.

But the last advisory hasn't been written. The HPC could still warn on this at 4 am as a tropical depression!

[SapphireSea]

The NHC has written their last advisory on Lee because it's merging / becoming a frontal system. Additional advisorys are going to be issued by the HPC and relayed by local weather services. I agree with the admin's retitling.

As for downplaying flooding. Any professional met organization will NEVER downplay any mass of moisture like this. This is why the storm2k's disclaimer says not to use the site for the purposes of life and property, and to refer to official sources, which no doubt will be issuing warnings on flooding due to this system.