ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

What is the ENKF model? I've never heard of it before.

It is an experimental version of the GFS.

[Stormcenter]

I have the feeling 93L is going to have to deal with shear for most of it's existence. IMO

[KWT]

micktooth, that depends alot really on the track of the system, there is an awful lot of uncertainty when it comes to the track.

If it gets far enough northwards to get inland then probably a low end TS...IF it gets blocked off and shunted back W/WSW then IMO a hurricane is very possible.

[Vortex]

IMO, this is going to pose a significant flooding threat along the central Gulf coast. Abnormally high tide cycles as a persistant easterly fetch sets up especially along the LA coast this weekend and spreading only very slowly E or W from there depending upon your model of choice...This could become a serious event, all resident from TX to the FL panhandle should begin monitoring this closely..

[Annie Oakley]

Gonna be nerve-wracking to watch developments.....trying not to get too excited.

[Portastorm]

The fact the BAM's are all over the place doesn't do much for the confidence does it!

I'm not sure we should have much confidence in them regardless. I have always heard their effectiveness is much greater in the deep tropics (i.e. south of the 20 degree north latitude line). This system, should it develop, will probably have cyclogenesis north of 20 degrees.

[GCANE]

Three good TUTTs lined up to support a poleward outflow channel.

In fact, doesn't look too bad already with an equatorward outflow channel working.


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... zoom=&time

[Aric Dunn]

Three good TUTTs lined up to support a poleward outflow channel.

In fact, doesn't look too bad already with an equatorward outflow channel working.


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... zoom=&time

yeah shear should decrease starting tomorrow.

[djmikey]

Ok..wow...what a day with these models. I think I have come to the conclusion that this storm will hit Alaska!

The minute I read a post or online article saying the models favor Texas (and get all excited) I find one that says the same models have it going further east favoring central/eastern GOM. I am so ready to pull my hair out as im sure most of you are too aswell.

I am trying my darndest to tell myself to just wait and see. It's hard! But, I think that is the BEST conclusion out of everything that has evolved (so far) today. NO one still knows! I don't think we know anymore today than we did yesterday as far direction.

*Athough I will continue my prayers TX gets atleast some benificial rains. I can handle it not landfalling in TX and I can hanfdle not getting the winds...dear jesus, just please give us some RAIN!

[underthwx]

yesterday i noticed a NWS dissc. regarding a rex block low...i read up a little about it...its usually occurs more in the spring...my question is....is the type of pattern that has or is setting up?...forcing whatever develops in the Gulf to meander for days...according to NWS New Orleans...as far into next weekemd possibly?

[fwbbreeze]

snipet for NWS Mobile.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=mob&issuedby=MOB&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...BIG QUESTION IS WHAT IS
GOING TO HAPPEN WITH THE STRONG EASTERLY WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF. THE VARIOUS MODELS HAVE MAINTAINED
A RATHER LARGE SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE
ONE THING THEY ALL GENERALLY AGREE ON IS THAT AN ORGANIZED LOW
CENTER WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE. THEY DON`T AGREE ON WHERE
THE LOW WILL GO OR HOW STRONG IT WILL BECOME. THE LATEST 12Z GFS
BRINGS THE LOW UP INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY SUNDAY THEN MOVES IT
VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS 00Z RUN. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS MAINTAINED ITS MORE
WESTWARD SOLUTION BUT TRENDED FARTHER EAST FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN...A
BIT STRONGER INITIALLY...THEN RETROGRADES THE LOW BACK TO TEXAS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT BUILDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE
(SOMETHING THE GFS DOES NOT DO). RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND FAITH
IN ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION IS LOW...SO THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN WITH THE LOW THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT FORECAST WITH
THE LOW...THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM IS SOMETHING WE MUST CONSIDER. RIGHT NOW WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKING FLOOD IMPACTS OVER OUR AREA...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IF
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD WITH THE LOW. GIVEN THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS...WE RAISED THE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE AREA TO BE MORE INLINE WITH THE CONSENSUS. AS
FOR THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM
WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY BE A HYBRID SUBTROPICAL STORM SYSTEM WITH
BAROCLINIC CHARACTERISTICS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT ANY RATE...WE WILL
NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE GULF SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
05/JG

[Stormcenter]

Interesting to note that they described 93L as an area of low pressure throughout the discussion and don't mention any strengthening to TS or Hurricane.......just saying.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
346 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2011

.SHORT TERM...

A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYMAKER WHEN
IT COMES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...AND
INTO THE COMING WEEK AS WELL. IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM...AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS OFFSHORE HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING TROPICAL FEATURE AND A BROAD
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTENSIFIES.
WITH THIS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING...LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND PORTIONS OF COASTAL
LOUISIANA. THIS CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ALONG THE
LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD TO THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THE INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
BE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF BOTH INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA
AND A BROAD REGION OF INCREASED POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT CHANCE POPS TO BE
FOUND ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE CHANCE FOR POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE...AS ALL THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGHER
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SUSTAINED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 15 MPH EXPECTED BY
SATURDAY. WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF...EXPECT INCREASED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA INTO THE LIKELY RANGE.

.LONG TERM...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DRAMATICALLY HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHWEST GULF.
AFTER REVIEWING PAST MODEL PERFORMANCE AND LOOKING OVER THE
CONSENSUS FORECAST FROM THE NHC AND HPC...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
EURO MODEL SOLUTION. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY AND REMAIN STALLED OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS STRONG AND
PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PILE WATER UP ALONG THE
COAST BEGINNING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTENSIFYING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TIDES COULD BE UP TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WHICH COULD IMPACT
COASTAL AREAS WITH SOME FLOODING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...A DEEP
LAYER OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ENVELOP THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
WITH AMPLE FORCING IN PLACE...FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BUMP POPS
FOR NEXT WEEK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME...WHICH SHOULD ASSIST IN FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS ON THE
SOUTHSHORE.

[bamajammer4eva]

I noticed the NHC mentioned possible SUBtropical storm. Do these produce more tornadoes than regular tropical storms?

[underthwx]

The fact the BAM's are all over the place doesn't do much for the confidence does it!

I'm not sure we should have much confidence in them regardless. I have always heard their effectiveness is much greater in the deep tropics (i.e. south of the 20 degree north latitude line). This system, should it develop, will probably have cyclogenesis north of 20 degrees.

May I please ask...what is cyclogenisis?

[RL3AO]

May I please ask...what is cyclogenisis?

The process of the development of a cyclone (low pressure).

[ROCK]

well if you follow the CLIPER then the GFS is right on....

personally you see the EURO in the short term 2 runs in a row depicting the same trek really hard to go against it....especially with all the GFS issues we have seen.....

[indian]

well if you follow the CLIPER then the GFS is right on....

personally you see the EURO in the short term 2 runs in a row depicting the same trek really hard to go against it....especially with all the GFS issues we have seen.....

what exactly is the euro showing as far as landfall and strength?

[southerngale]

Thoughts from the NWS Lake Charles AFD... they don't seem concerned about significant develop.


NOW...A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THIS TIME THERE IS NUMEROUS
DIFFERENCES AND SOLUTIONS. OVER ALL IT LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE GOOD NEWS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA IS IF THE WAVE DOES MOVE IN THIS DIRECTION WE ARE
FINALLY GOING TO GET DESPERATELY NEEDED RAINFALL. THE OTHER PIECE
OF GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S...WE
ARE LOOKING AT MID 90S TOMORROW AND UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH THIS PERIOD "THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK" WILL AVERAGE ABOUT ONE TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE LAKES REGION
AND ABOUT THE SAME FOR CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DOWN TOWARDS THE COAST
ABOUT FOUR INCHES LOOKS ABOUT RIGHT FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH TO
THE COAST.

[South Texas Storms]

Does anyone know why the FIM model didn't run today at 0z and 12z?
It is a shame that it didn't update today because it was nice having another model to look at that isn't that unreliable from what I have seen so far from it imo.

[HurricaneBrain]

Very complex system to forecast!