ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[HurricaneBelle]

There is no waste of names. A TC is as TC. If you have a thing, and it might only live for a few days, do you just not name it because it wont be there forever or wont become a extreme system?

(Response deleted as original post was changed to make my response moot)

[CrazyC83]

What is is with the mid-latitudes this year constantly putting out all these storms? Even though they have little chance to intensify as they do so just before moving into cold water.

[supercane]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 012354
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 930 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND ON NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN LOCATED
ABOUT 225 SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
500 MILES SOUTH OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND ONLY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL STORM. THE LOW IS MOVING LITTLE AT THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

[supercane]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 020547
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 830 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
450 MILES SOUTH OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION
COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Latest IR:

Latest microwave:

[dwsqos2]

SAB's 0615Z satellite estimate was T2.0. Now, I think it looks pretty.

There hasn't been a renumbering though in the atcf file.

So, as of September 2, we have a sheared strong tropical storm east of the Lesser Antilles, basically a monsoon trough in the Gulf of Mexico, and high latitude junk. This is so far a very lackluster season.

And as of 0815Z there is increasing distance between the convective mass and low-level center, so yeah this probably will never be classified. This is very unofficial.

[Chacor]

SAB's 1145 UTC sat fix is T2.5/2.5, or a tropical 35 knots.

[RL3AO]

Well, they've named this systems twin many times before.

[lester]

SAB's 0615Z satellite estimate was T2.0. Now, I think it looks pretty.

There hasn't been a renumbering though in the atcf file.

So, as of September 2, we have a sheared strong tropical storm east of the Lesser Antilles, basically a monsoon trough in the Gulf of Mexico, and high latitude junk. This is so far a very lackluster season.

And as of 0815Z there is increasing distance between the convective mass and low-level center, so yeah this probably will never be classified. This is very unofficial.

I think the millions of people affected by Irene (including me) would disagree about a "lackluster season"

- לסטר

[KWT]

I suspect when they first flagged it up it may well have been at least a TD, if not a TS, and since then its been holding steady looking at the presentation.

Going to be a serious contender for being upgraded post season.

[Chacor]

94L is now a badly sheared naked LLCC. Should have been upgraded IMO, so we'll wait and see post-season.

[KWT]

Agreed, it IMO was a TS when it was first invested.

[RL3AO]

They've certainly named that storm a few times this year.

[Extratropical94]

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
460 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA HAS DECREASED...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING UNFAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL STORM TO
DEVELOP. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM
CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NOAA OCEAN
PREDICTION...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01
KWBC.

[Florida1118]

Shear is expected to drop on Saturday, so when it does...Maria anyone? Heres Dr.Masters opinon:

A well-organized low pressure system with a surface circulation but limited heavy thunderstorm activity due to high wind shear is 450 miles south of Halifax, Canada. This disturbance, (94L), is headed northeast out to sea, and is being given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. 94L is under a high 25 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear is expected to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Saturday morning. However, sea surface temperature will fall from 27°C today to 25°C Saturday morning underneath 94L, and the storm will have a very short window of time to get organized enough to get a name. At this point, it's really a subjective judgement call on whether or not 94L is already a tropical storm

[Extratropical94]

Shear is expected to drop on Saturday, so when it does...Maria anyone? Heres Dr.Masters opinon:

A well-organized low pressure system with a surface circulation but limited heavy thunderstorm activity due to high wind shear is 450 miles south of Halifax, Canada. This disturbance, (94L), is headed northeast out to sea, and is being given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. 94L is under a high 25 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear is expected to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Saturday morning. However, sea surface temperature will fall from 27°C today to 25°C Saturday morning underneath 94L, and the storm will have a very short window of time to get organized enough to get a name. At this point, it's really a subjective judgement call on whether or not 94L is already a tropical storm

Well, I don't think this will be Maria at some point. NHC is on a downward trend and when they are, the usually don't turn around given the conditions and presentation that quickly.
Let's say they kind of missed this one and might upgrade it in post-season analysis.

[Florida1118]

Shear is expected to drop on Saturday, so when it does...Maria anyone? Heres Dr.Masters opinon:

Well, I don't think this will be Maria at some point. NHC is on a downward trend and when they are, the usually don't turn around given the conditions and presentation that quickly.
Let's say they kind of missed this one and might upgrade it in post-season analysis.

Yeah I had a little hope left, but now at 10% im giving up. Post season it might be then

[Extratropical94]

Maybe they try to avoid Greek letters?