ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

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invest_al942011.invest
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201109011236
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2011, DB, O, 2011090112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942011
AL, 94, 2011090112, , BEST, 0, 375N, 637W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Looks like yet ANOTHER TS that has formed in the W.Atlantic...

It reminds me an awful lot of the 2005 season where we had a glut of TS/hurricanes in the Ne Atlantic, focus is further west but I think if this continues we should go 20+ for storms...

IMO thats a TS already...

[Macrocane]

This is the 10% , NO WAY! Agree with the opinions above it's already a storm and looks more tropical than subtropical, they upgraded Jose when it looked very messy and not this one?

[SouthDadeFish]

Umm..... How is this not Lee? Someone please explain.

[SouthDadeFish]

Lol SSD only gives this:

01/1145 UTC 37.5N 63.8W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic

[Hurricanehink]

Is there any reason it isn't higher than yellow? Is it still frontal, perhaps?

[Aric Dunn]

it should be LEE or at least a tropical depression

[Macrocane]

Is there any reason it isn't higher than yellow? Is it still frontal, perhaps?

According to the latest surface analisys it is embedded within a stationary front, but it looks like it has detached.

[ColinDelia]

I was thinking the same thing, KWT. 2005 Redux.

[Chacor]

Looks pretty decent there, agree that it should be a named storm.

*NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Andy_L]

could someone post a visual, or a link to a visual please

[tolakram]

Very edge of the GOES east coast pic.

Live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

copy of latest frame

[Andy_L]

thanks Mark

[SFLcane]

Looks like yet ANOTHER TS that has formed in the W.Atlantic...

It reminds me an awful lot of the 2005 season where we had a glut of TS/hurricanes in the Ne Atlantic, focus is further west but I think if this continues we should go 20+ for storms...

IMO thats a TS already...

Heading for greek if this continues...difference from the mighty 2005 is no signifcant landfalls other then irene thus far this season.

[tolakram]

This live loop from the NH extended view. You can see what might be the associated front.

slow to load for me.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

copy of latest image

[northjaxpro]

I agree with those who stated that this system looks detached from the frontal boundary. At the very least, this appears to be a TD or even a minimal TS right now. Also, should it get designated as either from the NHC, this would make it the sixth tropical entity to form in the Atlantic Basin north of 25 latitude. That has been amazing stat this season to this point.

[wxman57]

Jose = TS and this = 10%????? Something is not right with the universe...

[Extratropical94]

Jose = TS and this = 10%????? Something is not right with the universe...

I fully agree. The NHC seems to be sort of inconsequent with watching the subtropical latitudes and storms forming there.
They totally missed 96L (the one after Franklin I think), and they overhyped Jose for no real reason (well, TS winds affected Bermuda, but they are used to this level of breeziness.)
Take 96L as Gert, then this one would be Maria and the GOM brewer Nate.
And now look at today's date.
Edit: I do not want to be/sound rude, but I would love to have the agencies follow a clearer line when it comes to those frontal/subtropical storms.

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1403 UTC THU SEP 1 2011 
   
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. 
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. 
   
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR 
   
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942011) 20110901 1200 UTC 
   
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS... 
        110901  1200   110902  0000   110902  1200   110903  0000 
   
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON 
BAMS    37.4N  63.9W   38.1N  64.8W   38.7N  65.6W   39.2N  66.0W 
BAMD    37.4N  63.9W   38.6N  63.2W   40.6N  62.0W   43.0N  60.3W 
BAMM    37.4N  63.9W   38.2N  64.2W   39.4N  64.3W   40.6N  64.2W 
LBAR    37.4N  63.9W   38.0N  62.9W   39.0N  62.1W   40.6N  60.7W 
SHIP        35KTS          44KTS          51KTS          53KTS 
DSHP        35KTS          44KTS          51KTS          53KTS 
   
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS... 
        110903  1200   110904  1200   110905  1200   110906  1200 
   
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON 
BAMS    39.6N  65.8W   41.7N  62.3W   45.1N  55.4W   48.4N  48.4W 
BAMD    45.0N  57.3W   47.4N  45.4W   46.0N  34.0W   45.7N  25.7W 
BAMM    41.7N  63.5W   44.4N  57.6W   46.8N  45.7W   46.2N  34.5W 
LBAR    42.1N  58.4W   44.3N  49.3W   46.2N  38.3W   45.0N  31.5W 
SHIP        48KTS          41KTS          30KTS          21KTS 
DSHP        48KTS          41KTS          30KTS          21KTS 
   
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... 
LATCUR =  37.4N LONCUR =  63.9W DIRCUR =  40DEG SPDCUR =   2KT 
LATM12 =  37.2N LONM12 =  64.1W DIRM12 =  38DEG SPDM12 =   1KT 
LATM24 =  36.9N LONM24 =  64.4W 
WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   25KT 
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =   75NM SDEPTH =   S 
RD34NE =   45NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM 
   
$$ 
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