ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

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Tireman4
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L

#21 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 10:38 am

wxman57 wrote:Jose = TS and this = 10%????? Something is not right with the universe...



I totally agree. I looked that and thought...wait Jose was a tropical storm? This makes Jose look like a steaming pile of noodles...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L

#22 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Sep 01, 2011 10:56 am

50%

UPDATED...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTH
OF BERMUDA APPEARS TO BE ACQUIRING SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND ONLY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM. THE LOW IS MOVING LITTLE AT THIS
TIME...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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#23 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 11:00 am

Nice one! Is it normal that they only update the "special" area in the "special" TWOs? The discussion for 93L is still the same.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L

#24 Postby ozonepete » Thu Sep 01, 2011 11:02 am

:uarrow: Now THAT makes a lot more sense. I couldn't believe that 10% before. If shear relaxes even just a little bit, this will get named.
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#25 Postby KWT » Thu Sep 01, 2011 11:07 am

50% still looks way too low and I think the NHC accept that as well, I've never see them have 50% but in the same sentence that only slight changes would see a TS form.

I think if it doesn't make it the NHC will probably have a good case to upgrade to post season.
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#26 Postby Hurricanehink » Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:15 pm

It looks like convection is slightly on the decrease. However, it looks much more like a TS than Jose ever did.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L

#27 Postby rog » Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:24 pm

It would appear their ready to name it, they just want to see more separation from the front.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L

#28 Postby dwsqos2 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:36 pm

It looks far less organized now. T1.0 doesn't cut it. Remember that with Jose, TAFB peaked at T2.0.
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#29 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:41 pm

2. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTH OF BERMUDA HAS
CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM.
THE LOW IS MOVING LITTLE AT THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L

#30 Postby Macrocane » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:01 pm

Joe Bastardi said this on twitter:

"May not be right about Lee.. CAUSE TPC MAY NAME ANOTHER NON TROPICAL SYSTEM. cmon guys at least let it get a thunderstorm on its west side"

Does it need to have convection in all sides to be tropical? I haven't heard that before, he also says that Jose was a joke and I kind of agree, I mean it was not a joke but the way they named it was kind of weird. I'm not bashing the NHC just disagreeing with them, however I think 94L is tropical so in this case I'm not with JB.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L

#31 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:11 pm

Macrocane wrote:Joe Bastardi said this on twitter:

he also says that Jose was a joke and I kind of agree, I mean it was not a joke but the way they named it was kind of weird. I'm not bashing the NHC just disagreeing with them,


You're favoring a pay-for-play web poster over the NHC?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L

#32 Postby dwsqos2 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:12 pm

Just based on satellite estimates, Jose was much more organized.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#33 Postby Florida1118 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:38 pm

How the heck do these keep poping up...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#34 Postby TheBurn » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:50 pm

18:15 RGB

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#35 Postby Florida1118 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:55 pm

Aww...it coulda been one a bit ago...now its just naked...
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#36 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:55 pm

01/1745 UTC 37.2N 64.0W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic
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#37 Postby Florida1118 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:56 pm

Extratropical94 wrote:01/1745 UTC 37.2N 64.0W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic

But 1.5 now! Woo!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L

#38 Postby Macrocane » Thu Sep 01, 2011 2:59 pm

dwsqos2 wrote:Just based on satellite estimates, Jose was much more organized.


Right now it looks more disorganized but earlier today it looked better than Jose IMO.
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#39 Postby bexar » Thu Sep 01, 2011 3:06 pm

would this become another short lived tropical storm just like the other 9? too many names wasted on boring, weak, easily forgotten systems.

next.... :roll:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#40 Postby Florida1118 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:18 pm

bexar wrote:would this become another short lived tropical storm just like the other 9? too many names wasted on boring, weak, easily forgotten systems.

next.... :roll:

There is no waste of names. A TC is as TC. If you have a thing, and it might only live for a few days, do you just not name it because it wont be there forever or wont become a extreme system?
Last edited by Florida1118 on Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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