WPAC: KULAP - Tropical Depression (17W)

[supercane]

Well east of Luzon, S of Ryukyus
20110904.1501.mtsat2.x.ir1km_bw.90WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-170N-1320E.100pc.jpg

ASCAT does suggest a circulation:

[supercane]

ABPW10 PGTW 042200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/042200Z-050600ZSEP2011//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041951ZSEP2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 041800Z, TROPICAL STORM 16W (NORU) WAS LOCATED NEAR
32.5N 149.6E, APPROXIMATELY 620 NM SOUTH- EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, AND
HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 042100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.9N 131.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 600 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), HOWEVER, THE CONVECTIVE BANDING IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. LOW LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED
CIRCULATION WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM.
A 041209Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED AND SYMMETRICAL LLCC WITH
20-KNOT WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, AND
5-10 KNOTS IN ALL OTHER QUADRANTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM LIES DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH A TROUGH AXIS, IN AN AREA OF LOW
(5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND MODERATE DIFFLUENCE. A 041654Z
AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCES.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS A LOW.//
NNNN

[phwxenthusiast]

it's looking good by the hour...



an ASCAT pass earlier still showing a closed LLCC... could this be upgraded to Medium by JTWC at 06z??

[dexterlabio]

It has a good chance of developing into our next TC imo. Adding to that, I think the path will be more eastward or to the northeast because of some unusual steering pattern out there, well I don't know if that kind of steering usually exists at this time of the year...it could also change if that setup also changes quickly.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Chacor]

6z:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 20N 135E NE SLOWLY.

[HURAKAN]

very small system

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.8N
133.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 135.6E, APPROXIMATELY 520 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE NEAR A VERY
SMALL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 06/2139Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
IMAGE ALSO SHOWS DEEP, CURVED, CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND AN LLCC
LESS THAN TWO DEGREES IN DIAMETER. NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS NEAR 1004 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS BENEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF
FAVORABLE (5-15 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RECENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY HAS SHOWN IMPROVING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 21N 135E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[phwxenthusiast]

JMA upgraded this to Kulap... will be very interesting to see how this one develops and where its track will be... dexter is right on that "unusual" pattern that we have... that ULL (former Talas??) over Russia has kinda weakened the STR which is allowing Kulap to move NE... question is, how long will that last??

00z GFS kinda has the most probable idea of moving that ULL north away this weekend which will allow the STR to rebuild back near Japan, re-establishing that "blockage" on the path of storms moving NE...

one other thing, latest 00z guidance not really enthused with Kulap... they are also initializing poorly on the location and strength, is this because our TS is fairly small or the fact that it is still new... JMA expecting this to intensify further though...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Well spotted Pat! Quite rare for JMA to upgrade at 03z intermediary advisory and their forecast advisory is only 24 hours out. Expect full track forecast at 06z.

I wondering what's up with the models too - I'm guessing the size of the system could be why they're not really doing much with Kulap? Another interesting storm to track in this peculiar pattern we're having!

[Chacor]

JMA 06z SAREP:

Kulap (international number 1114/ tropical cyclone identifier 20)
Latitude 21.45N Longitude 135.35E
Moving 026° at 2.57 m/s
CI = T2.0
Data T = T2.0
Model Expected T = T2.0
Trend = D1.0/24HRS
Pattern T = T2.0
Final T = T2.0

T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

[Chacor]

Interesting note: With the formation of Kulap, WPAC 2011 is now aligned with WPAC 2005 in the namelist (KULAP was 0501), just as the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific namelists for 2011 are aligned with those from 2005.

[Chacor]

KNES are DT 2.5, MET 2.0, PT 2.0, FT 2.0 (T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS)
PGTW are DT 2.5, MET 2.5, PT 2.5, FT 2.5 (T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS)

[Typhoon Hunter]

Interesting note: With the formation of Kulap, WPAC 2011 is now aligned with WPAC 2005 in the namelist (KULAP was 0501), just as the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific namelists for 2011 are aligned with those from 2005.

Oh yes! That could give me a sense of deja vu chasing wise, Haitang was the first storm I ever went through back in 2005!

[Chacor]

No significant strengthening forecast, but Okinawa has to watch this one.

WTPQ20 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1114 KULAP (1114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070600UTC 21.5N 135.4E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 080600UTC 23.3N 135.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 090600UTC 24.8N 134.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 100600UTC 26.2N 133.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

[euro6208]

17W.SEVENTEEN, TRACK_VIS, 07 SEP 2011 0207Z

looks like JTWC will upgrade this in the next 2 hours



very organized with increasing convection and good outflow. I think this is already a 45 knot tropical storm...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Chacor]

The T-numbers do not support 45 knots. They range from 2.0 to 2.5.

[euro6208]

thats my opinion ok?

plus i think those numbers are too low, my eyes telling me this is much stronger...

[Typhoon Hunter]

Could be one for Okinawa to watch out for but should it remain a weak TS I doubt it will cause any problems. The potential storms forming after Kulap also look interesting and they're being hinted at in the models. Despite ECM not really showing anything strong right now it's approaching mid September so worth keeping close eye on!

EDIT: Upgraded straight to TS by JTWC too - 17W Kulap. They are much more bullish - watch out Okinawa!!

[StormingB81]

With tha tforecast we will start hitting TCCOR's tomorrow afternoon time frame..This one just wantrs to sneak up on us!