ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[underthwx]

Hamilton Bermuda was on the strong side of Maria's circulation but the 20 second winds only briefly reached 40 MPH with a reported gust in the low 50's. I doubt Labrador is going to get much worse than a typical northeaster.

Where is the next storm forming?

From Dr. Jeff Masters: (Hope that helps you Nimbus)


Elsewhere in the tropics
All of the models have been sporadically predicting development of a tropical wave 5 - 7 days from now between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The location and timing of the hypothetical storm have been inconsistent, and there is at present no signs of anything brewing. The NOGAPS model continues to predict a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression could form in the Caribbean 6 - 7 days from now, near Jamaica. None of the other models is supporting this idea, so the NOGAPS model is probably wrong on this scenario. I'll have an update Saturday afternoon.

[Maritimer71]

WOCN31 CWHX 161745
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:49 PM NDT FRIDAY
16 SEPTEMBER 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
LABRADOR
NEWFOUNDLAND.

FOR HURRICANE MARIA.

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 6:30 PM NDT.
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT FULL STATEMENT ISSUED BY 9:30 PM ADT.

HURRICANE MARIA NEAR LANDFALL - SOUTHERN COAST OF THE AVALON
PENINSULA AS OF 3:30 PM NDT.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT ENDED FOR:
NOVA SCOTIA.

NO FURTHER RAINFALL EFFECTS FROM MARIA IN NOVA SCOTIA.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 3:30 PM NDT.

LOCATION: ABOUT 46.7 NORTH 54.2 WEST.

ABOUT 65 KILOMETRES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ARGENTIA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 120 KM/HOUR.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTHEAST ABOUT 90 KM/H.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 MB.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

THE VERY CENTRE OF MARIA WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AVALON PENINSULA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS, POSSIBLY GUSTING TO
140 KM/H. MARIA WILL MERGE WITH A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER
LABRADOR THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN FAR-REACHING IMPACTS
WELL AWAY FROM THE AVALON TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

RAIN WILL END QUICKLY AND THE SUN WILL SHINE THROUGH BROKEN CLOUD
SOON AS THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE PASSES. BE CAUTIOUS DURING THIS
PERIOD AS STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL KICK-IN AFTER THE EYE PASSES.

A. WIND.

THE HIGHEST WINDS DIRECTLY FROM MARIA ARE SET TO OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHERN AVALON PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPOSED LOCATIONS
COULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KM/H WITH GUSTS OF 130 OR
140 KM/H. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AVALON PENINSULA AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS POSTED FOR THE
NORTHERN AVALON, THE BURIN, AND BONAVISTA PENINSULAS. AS MARIA
MERGES WITH THE LARGE LOW TO THE NORTH, HIGH WINDS WILL BLOW
THROUGHOUT LABRADOR AND MUCH OF THE ISLAND PORTION OF THE PROVINCE.
WINDS COULD EVEN GUST TO HURRICANE FORCE OVER THE COAST OF LABRADOR
AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA.

THESE WIND GUSTS CAN TOPPLE TREES AND BREAK LARGE BRANCHES, RESULTING
IN DOWNED UTILITY LINES AND POWER INTERRUPTIONS. DAMAGE TO SIGNAGE
AND BUILDING CLADDING/ROOFING MATERIAL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WHEN WINDS
GUST TO 120 KM/H OR MORE.

IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE, THE NEWFOUNDLAND
AND LABRADOR WEATHER OFFICE CONTINUE WIND WARNINGS FOR EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND IN RELATION TO MARIA. THE NEWFOUNDLAND OFFICE HAS ALSO
POSTED HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR NORTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND
AND LABRADOR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE VERY LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW IN
LABRADOR. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED FORECASTS TODAY AND SATURDAY FROM
THE NEWFOUNDLAND OFFICE.

B. RAINFALL.

RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH MARIA AND A CONNECTED TROUGH WILL WRAP-UP IN
QUICK ORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5-15
MILLIMETRES ARE POSSIBLE. UP TO 50 MILLIMETRES OF RAINFALL HAS BEEN
OBSERVED BUT WE DO NOT FORESEE FINAL TOTALS BEING MUCH MORE THAN
THAT.

C. SURGE/WAVES.

LARGE WAVES AND STORM SURGE EFFECTS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE AVALON
PENINSULA AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE TIDE IS FALLING
AND WILL BE LOW AROUND 6 PM LOCAL TIME. THIS WILL EASE SURGE AND
WAVE RELATED IMPACTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAYS OF THE AVALON. WAVES UP TO
6 METRES AND SURGE UP TO 1 METRES ARE EXPECTED.

LARGE WAVES AND STORM SURGE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE STRAIT OF BELLE ISLE.
A LESSER RISK EXISTS FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND LATE
SATURDAY, ALL IN RELATION TO THE NON-TROPICAL LOW.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHERNAND EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND MARINE AREAS AT LEAST INTO THIS
EVENING AS A RESULT OF MARIA.

GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ARE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE OVER MOST OF
ATLANTIC CANADIAN WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF THE
NON-TROPICAL LOW.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:

- FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

- STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

- HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/FOGARTY

[Maritimer71]

FXCN31 CWHX 161800
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.30 PM NDT
FRIDAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2011.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.30 PM NDT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.30 PM NDT, HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
46.7 N AND LONGITUDE 54.2 W, ABOUT 35 NAUTICAL MILES OR 65 KM
SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ARGENTIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS ( 120 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 984
MB. MARIA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 KNOTS ( 93 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
NDT MB KTS KMH
SEP 16 3.30 PM 46.7N 54.2W 984 65 120
SEP 16 9.30 PM 50.6N 49.4W 985 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 17 3.30 AM 56.3N 45.1W 987 55 102 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARIA IS RAPIDLY BECOMING
POST-TROPICAL, WITH DECREASING DEEP CONVECTION AND AN INCREASINGLY
RAGGED APPEARANCE, ITS RECENT TRAVERSAL NEAR SOME OFFSHORE WEATHER
BUOYS INDICATE IT STILL HAS A TIGHT TROPICAL CORE WITH A VERY STRONG
WIND AND PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR ITS CENTRE. THUS WE WILL MAINTAIN
MARIA AS A MARGINAL HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL, WHICH WILL LIKELY
BE SHORTLY AFTER THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED. MARIA IS SPEEDING ALONG
AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS, AND WITH THE HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IT IS
CLEAR THAT MARIA'S CIRCULATION IS TILTED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
THIS HAS MADE PINPOINTING MARIA'S EXACT SURFACE POSITION DIFFICULT,
BUT AN 11Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS ALLOWED A GOOD CENTRE FIX WHICH WHEN
EXTRAPOLATED TO VISIBILE SATELLITE IMAGERY GAVE A BETTER INDICATION
OF MARIA'S CENTRE - WHICH WAS JUST SLIGHTLY MORE EASTWARD THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ALSO - A WEATHER BOUY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GRAND
BANKS REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 67 KNOTS (124 KM/H) AT 1:30 PM NDT.

B. PROGNOSTIC

NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSPHY. BASED ON THE FOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE FIX AND INITIAL TRAJECTORY, MARIA'S TRACK WAS NUDGED
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD, MAKING THE PROBABLE LANDFALL LOCATION SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN AVALON PENINSULA IN THE VICINITY OF ST. MARY'S
BAY.

THEREAFTER ALL NWP GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT WITHIN 12
HOURS AFTER LANDFALL VIRTUALLY ALL OF MARIA'S REMAINING ENERGY WILL
BECOME ABSORBED IN WHAT WILL BECOME A LARGE AND VERY STRONG
BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF LABRADOR.


C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
16/18Z 200 240 150 120 100 180 40 50 20 40 20 0
17/00Z 250 280 180 150 120 200 60 50 0 0 0 0
17/06Z 300 300 300 200 100 200 80 50 0 0 0 0

END/BORGEL/FOGARTY

[jinftl]

Photo of eye moving over Placentia, Newfoundland




Trampoline blown into tree at Upper Island Cove, Newfoundland

[underthwx]

Excellent pics....

[HurricaneBelle]

Only 40 pages to go now in order for all of those in the first few pages who predicted this thread to go 100+ pages to be proven right.

C'mon you Newfoundlanders (and Greenlanders), get posting!

[HurrMark]

Last advisory...good run...decent ACE contribution:
000
WTNT34 KNHC 162040
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 PM AST FRI SEP 16 2011

...MARIA BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...48.5N 51.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM NNE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 58 MPH...93 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS FOR NEWFOUNDLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 48.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.5 WEST. MARIA
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 58 MPH...93 KM/H...AND THAT
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED WITHIN A COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN UNTIL IT
MERGES WITH A FRONT TONIGHT.

GALE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310 MILES...500 KM...MOSTLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM CANADIAN OBSERVATION
STATIONS IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.



$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN

[CrazyC83]

Doesn't look to be that severe in Newfoundland. But for eastern Canada this is the 4th hurricane to make landfall there since 2008 (nearly was 5). In that timeframe, the entire US coast has had 1.

[CrazyC83]

Error in the BT?

AL, 14, 2011091700, , BEST, 0, 505N, 500W, 60, 982, TS, 34, NEQ, 180, 270, 50, 50,

[cycloneye]

Error in the BT?

AL, 14, 2011091700, , BEST, 0, 505N, 500W, 60, 982, TS, 34, NEQ, 180, 270, 50, 50,

Hmmm,it doesn't say EX for Extratropical.

[Ptarmigan]

Maria was the storm that could.