ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:33 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201109060056
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2011, DB, O, 2011090506, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952011
AL, 95, 2011090500, , BEST, 0, 95N, 287W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2011090506, , BEST, 0, 97N, 295W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 75, 30, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 95, 2011090512, , BEST, 0, 98N, 301W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 75, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 95, 2011090518, , BEST, 0, 99N, 307W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 75, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 95, 2011090600, , BEST, 0, 100N, 314W, 25, 1009, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

Thread about pouch P24L that was the topic at Talking Tropics forum for this system.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=111775&hilit=&p=2188495#p2188495

#2 Postby **northjaxpro** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 6:05 am

O.K. here we go!

95L is looking pretty good this morning. It has developed some rather deep convection and the outflow is becoming better established. We may indeed will be tracking a low rider all across the Eastern ATL for many days to come.

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 6:06 am

Indeed,looks well organized for being invested a short time ago. For sure a low latitude rider (Caribbean Cruiser?) Let's see what % they give at the 8 AM TWO.

Saved image.

rainstorm · #4 Postby **rainstorm** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 6:27 am

latest gfs shows nothing. lets see if that changes.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=168hr

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 6:30 am

First plots for 95L.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 051124
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1124 UTC MON SEP 5 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952011) 20110905 0600 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110905  0600   110905  1800   110906  0600   110906  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.0N  28.5W    9.2N  29.8W    9.5N  31.7W   10.1N  34.5W
BAMD     9.0N  28.5W    9.5N  29.9W   10.1N  31.7W   11.0N  34.1W
BAMM     9.0N  28.5W    9.5N  30.1W   10.2N  32.0W   11.0N  34.6W
LBAR     9.0N  28.5W    9.4N  30.6W   10.0N  33.0W   10.6N  35.8W
SHIP        20KTS          25KTS          31KTS          36KTS
DSHP        20KTS          25KTS          31KTS          36KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110907  0600   110908  0600   110909  0600   110910  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.9N  37.9W   13.9N  46.1W   17.5N  53.6W   21.3N  58.7W
BAMD    12.0N  37.0W   14.5N  43.0W   16.4N  48.1W   17.5N  51.5W
BAMM    11.9N  37.6W   14.1N  44.5W   16.3N  51.0W   18.7N  55.8W
LBAR    11.3N  38.9W   12.4N  45.1W   13.7N  50.4W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        39KTS          41KTS          41KTS          44KTS
DSHP        39KTS          41KTS          41KTS          44KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   9.0N LONCUR =  28.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =   9.0N LONM12 =  26.1W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =   9.0N LONM24 =  23.6W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

Saved image.

#6 Postby **BigA** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 6:37 am

Any idea if this is the system that the Euro has developed in the Caribbean on the two previous runs?

For what it's worth the FIMY develops this system and in the long run moves it across the northeast Caribbean and recurves it between Bermuda and the US.

#7 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 6:44 am

Pattern so far sure has been for tropical systems to look promising, then struggle due to higher than forecasted shear. Followed by a recurve between 70-OBX. See if this holds true or we end up with something that really needs to be watched. System does look good this morning.

Nightwatch · #8 Postby **Nightwatch** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 6:44 am

Is this the invest which the NHC gives 20% now ?

Looks like a huge complex right now, bigger then usual?

#9 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 6:46 am

Nightwatch wrote:Is this the invest which the NHC gives 20% now ?

Looks like a huge complex right now, bigger then usual?

Yes it is this one.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 605 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

#10 Postby **BigA** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 6:50 am

Nightwatch wrote:Is this the invest which the NHC gives 20% now ?

Looks like a huge complex right now, bigger then usual?

Yes it is. And it has the potential to be an interesting system. Due to its large size I don't expect rapid consolidation, especially as it still looks somewhat attached to the ITCZ.

GFS and Euro look to have significant ridging in place over the Atlantic, so a westerly path is likely, at least in the short term.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#11 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:23 am

Could be the memorable storm of the season, IMO. Models show ridging building back in so it should stay further south then Katia. Wouldn't shock me if it becomes a serious threat to the islands. After that who knows. I wonder if the ridging will be strong enough for a Caribbean cruiser.

My initial wild...um donkey guess is possible NE caribbean/possible east coast threat.

Of course it might not even develop at all. Or it could recurve. Or it could go west through the Caribbean.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

#12 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:24 am

rainstorm wrote:latest gfs shows nothing. lets see if that changes.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=168hr

I was actually able to track the 850mb vort which stays very weak into the Bahamas and then into S Florida, maybe developing in the final 24 hours.

#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:25 am

12z Best Track

Already much lower in latitude than where Katia was at this 29.7W position.

This was the Katia position around this longitude=110N, 294W, 30, 1008,TD.

AL, 95, 2011090512, , BEST, 0, 91N, 297W, 25, 1009, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

#14 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:28 am

12z Tropical Models.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 051221
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1221 UTC MON SEP 5 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952011) 20110905 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110905  1200   110906  0000   110906  1200   110907  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.1N  29.7W    9.4N  31.2W    9.9N  33.5W   10.8N  36.7W
BAMD     9.1N  29.7W    9.6N  31.1W   10.3N  33.1W   11.4N  35.6W
BAMM     9.1N  29.7W    9.6N  31.3W   10.4N  33.4W   11.4N  36.2W
LBAR     9.1N  29.7W    9.6N  31.8W   10.2N  34.4W   10.9N  37.4W
SHIP        25KTS          35KTS          43KTS          49KTS
DSHP        25KTS          35KTS          43KTS          49KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110907  1200   110908  1200   110909  1200   110910  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.3N  40.7W   16.0N  49.4W   19.5N  56.6W   22.5N  61.9W
BAMD    12.6N  38.6W   15.0N  44.6W   16.4N  49.2W   17.0N  52.3W
BAMM    12.6N  39.5W   15.2N  46.6W   17.5N  53.0W   19.4N  57.6W
LBAR    11.5N  40.7W   12.8N  46.8W   13.8N  51.7W   14.2N  56.0W
SHIP        54KTS          55KTS          54KTS          58KTS
DSHP        54KTS          55KTS          54KTS          58KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   9.1N LONCUR =  29.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =   9.0N LONM12 =  27.3W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =   9.0N LONM24 =  24.9W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

ronjon · #15 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:35 am

06z GFS 850 vort run:

GFS

#16 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:42 am

12z Graphic.

Saved image.

Gustywind · #17 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 8:02 am

cycloneye wrote:12z Best Track

Already much lower in latitude than where Katia was at this 29.7W position.

This was the Katia position around this longitude=110N, 294W, 30, 1008,TD.

AL, 95, 2011090512, , BEST, 0, 91N, 297W, 25, 1009, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

That was fast ... already 95L! Thanks for keep us informed Cycloneye. Really much souther, looks like something to watch islanders given its lower lattitude. What are the current steering for this newbie?

Gustywind · #18 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 8:04 am

Latest from SSD...
05/1200 UTC 9.5N 29.6W T1.5/1.5 95L -- Atlantic

#19 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 8:12 am

This one looks quite interesting...

underthwx · #20 Postby **underthwx** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 8:19 am

is 95L at the lowest latitude out of all the systems to come off Africa so far this season?...

ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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