BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
200 PM AST THU SEP 15 2011
...MARIA MOVING BY BERMUDA...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR
NEWFOUNDLAND...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 66.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM NW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.
ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO BRIGUS
SOUTH.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO BRIGUS SOUTH
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITH 24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND BERMUDA RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 66.5 WEST. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
NEAR 32 MPH...52 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AT AN EVEN FASTER FORWARD
SPEED EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
MARIA WILL MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...BUT
SHOULD START TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335
KM...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. COMMISSIONERS POINT...AN
ELEVATED LOCATION ON BERMUDA...HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 52
MPH...83 KM/H...WITH GUSTS TO 69 MPH...111 KM/H.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
BERMUDA THROUGH TODAY.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON BERMUDA
THROUGH TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH
AREA IN CANADA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9861
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Thinking the NHC will pump up their hurricane prediction #'s a bit and classify Maria as a cane since she is close.
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Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05...
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
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Maritimer71
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 41
- Joined: Sun Aug 23, 2009 6:07 am
- Location: Nova Scotia - Canada
WOCN31 CWHX 151745
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:02 PM ADT THURSDAY
15 SEPTEMBER 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
=NEW= LABRADOR
NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA.
FOR TROPICAL STORM MARIA.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9:00 PM ADT.
TROPICAL STORM MARIA MAY REACH HURRICANE STATUS THIS EVENING
THEN INTERACT WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW AND TROUGH, BRINGING WIND
AND RAIN TO MUCH OF ATLANTIC CANADA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 3:00 PM ADT.
LOCATION: ABOUT 33.8 NORTH 66.2 WEST.
ABOUT 210 KILOMETRES NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 110 KM/HOUR.
PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 55 KM/H.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 MB.
2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.
THE REMNANTS OF MARIA ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE/INTERACT WITH A
DEVELOPING TROUGH TO ITS NORTH THAT WILL CONNECT TO A MUCH LARGER
NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER LABRADOR.
OUR LATEST TRACK (ON THE http://WWW.HURRICANES.CA WEBSITE) IS ADJUSTED
NORTHWESTWARD AND SHOWS MARIA PASSING CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE WILL BE FAR-REACHING
IMPACTS OF THE COMBINED WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL AWAY FROM THE TRACK.
A. WIND.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE TO BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT ATLANTIC CANADA ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE NON-TROPICAL LOW AND TROUGH NORTH OF MARIA
UNITE. THE HIGHEST WINDS DIRECTLY FROM MARIA MAY PASS JUST OFFSHORE
- SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND. BUT A SHIFT IN THE STORM TRACK ANY FARTHER
TO THE NORTHWEST WOULD INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY OF 100+ KM/H WIND
GUSTS ON THE AVALON PENINSULA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN AVALON FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF HIGH WINDS FROM MARIA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COMBINED LOW IS BEING PREDICTED BY MANY COMPUTER
MODELS TO DELIVER HIGH WINDS OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR ON
SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS EARLY FRIDAY RELATED TO
THAT STORM.
B. RAINFALL.
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER MANY PARTS OF ATLANTIC CANADA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY FROM THE NON-TROPICAL LOW AND THE TROUGH DEVELOPING NORTH OF
MARIA. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE TROUGH WHERE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS. THIS REGION INCLUDES
EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WHERE 50 TO 80 MILLIMETRES IS EXPECTED.
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH LESSER TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF NOVA SCOTIA BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING.
NOTE THAT WHENEVER MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL STORM FEEDS INTO A
FRONT/TROUGH IT IS LIKELY THAT RAINFALL RATES OF 15 TO 25 MILLIMETRES
PER HOUR WOULD OCCUR. SUCH RATES COULD LEAD TO FLASH-TYPE FLOODING
IN DITCHES AND SMALL RIVERS ESPECIALLY WHERE TERRAIN IS STEEP.
LOCAL FLOODING IN PRONE AREAS IS POSSIBLE. FORTUNATELY, RIVER WATER
LEVELS ARE AT OR BELOW NORMAL OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. KEEP IN
MIND HOWEVER THAT SMALLER RIVERS/CREEKS WILL RESPOND MORE QUICKLY TO
HEAVY RAIN THAN LARGER ONES.
RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR RAMEA CONNAIGRE EAST TO THE
AVALON PENINSULA THEN NORTH TO BONAVISTA AND TERRA NOVA PARK.
C. SURGE/WAVES.
MOST COASTAL REGIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND CAN EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD ON
FRIDAY AS THE WEATHER SYSTEMS INTERACT. WAVE AND/OR SURGE EFFECTS
DIRECTLY FROM MARIA ARE POSSIBLE NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN AVALON
PENINSULA. IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A SMALL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK
TO ALLOW HIGHER WAVES AND SOME STORM SURGE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
AVALON COASTLINES. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.
THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE SOUTH OF MARIA AND SHOULD REACH 4 TO 7
METRES LATE FRIDAY, MAINLY OVER THE GRAND BANKS.
SURGE AND WAVE ACTIVITY FROM THE MUCH LARGER COMBINED LOW COULD LEAD
TO SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WITH A POSSIBILITY OF STORM SURGE INTO
THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR LARGE WAVES AND STORM SURGE
OVER WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE LABRADOR COAST WITH A LESSER RISK
FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THIS COMBINED STORM MAY END
UP REQUIRING A HOST OF ADDITIONAL WARNINGS COVERING LABRADOR, THE
GULF OF ST LAWRENCE REGION AND THE ISLAND (NL).
ONE FACTOR THAT MAY HELP EASE IMPACTS SOMEWHAT IS A RUN OF LOWER THAN
AVERAGE TIDES THIS WEEKEND.
3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.
GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND ATLANTIC CANADA ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FROM MARIA AND THE COMBINED STORM.
VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:
- FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.
- STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.
- HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.
- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.
PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.
END/FOGARTY
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:02 PM ADT THURSDAY
15 SEPTEMBER 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
=NEW= LABRADOR
NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA.
FOR TROPICAL STORM MARIA.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9:00 PM ADT.
TROPICAL STORM MARIA MAY REACH HURRICANE STATUS THIS EVENING
THEN INTERACT WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW AND TROUGH, BRINGING WIND
AND RAIN TO MUCH OF ATLANTIC CANADA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 3:00 PM ADT.
LOCATION: ABOUT 33.8 NORTH 66.2 WEST.
ABOUT 210 KILOMETRES NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 110 KM/HOUR.
PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 55 KM/H.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 MB.
2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.
THE REMNANTS OF MARIA ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE/INTERACT WITH A
DEVELOPING TROUGH TO ITS NORTH THAT WILL CONNECT TO A MUCH LARGER
NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER LABRADOR.
OUR LATEST TRACK (ON THE http://WWW.HURRICANES.CA WEBSITE) IS ADJUSTED
NORTHWESTWARD AND SHOWS MARIA PASSING CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE WILL BE FAR-REACHING
IMPACTS OF THE COMBINED WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL AWAY FROM THE TRACK.
A. WIND.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE TO BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT ATLANTIC CANADA ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE NON-TROPICAL LOW AND TROUGH NORTH OF MARIA
UNITE. THE HIGHEST WINDS DIRECTLY FROM MARIA MAY PASS JUST OFFSHORE
- SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND. BUT A SHIFT IN THE STORM TRACK ANY FARTHER
TO THE NORTHWEST WOULD INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY OF 100+ KM/H WIND
GUSTS ON THE AVALON PENINSULA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN AVALON FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF HIGH WINDS FROM MARIA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COMBINED LOW IS BEING PREDICTED BY MANY COMPUTER
MODELS TO DELIVER HIGH WINDS OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR ON
SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS EARLY FRIDAY RELATED TO
THAT STORM.
B. RAINFALL.
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER MANY PARTS OF ATLANTIC CANADA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY FROM THE NON-TROPICAL LOW AND THE TROUGH DEVELOPING NORTH OF
MARIA. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE TROUGH WHERE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS. THIS REGION INCLUDES
EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WHERE 50 TO 80 MILLIMETRES IS EXPECTED.
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH LESSER TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF NOVA SCOTIA BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING.
NOTE THAT WHENEVER MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL STORM FEEDS INTO A
FRONT/TROUGH IT IS LIKELY THAT RAINFALL RATES OF 15 TO 25 MILLIMETRES
PER HOUR WOULD OCCUR. SUCH RATES COULD LEAD TO FLASH-TYPE FLOODING
IN DITCHES AND SMALL RIVERS ESPECIALLY WHERE TERRAIN IS STEEP.
LOCAL FLOODING IN PRONE AREAS IS POSSIBLE. FORTUNATELY, RIVER WATER
LEVELS ARE AT OR BELOW NORMAL OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. KEEP IN
MIND HOWEVER THAT SMALLER RIVERS/CREEKS WILL RESPOND MORE QUICKLY TO
HEAVY RAIN THAN LARGER ONES.
RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR RAMEA CONNAIGRE EAST TO THE
AVALON PENINSULA THEN NORTH TO BONAVISTA AND TERRA NOVA PARK.
C. SURGE/WAVES.
MOST COASTAL REGIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND CAN EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD ON
FRIDAY AS THE WEATHER SYSTEMS INTERACT. WAVE AND/OR SURGE EFFECTS
DIRECTLY FROM MARIA ARE POSSIBLE NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN AVALON
PENINSULA. IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A SMALL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK
TO ALLOW HIGHER WAVES AND SOME STORM SURGE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
AVALON COASTLINES. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.
THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE SOUTH OF MARIA AND SHOULD REACH 4 TO 7
METRES LATE FRIDAY, MAINLY OVER THE GRAND BANKS.
SURGE AND WAVE ACTIVITY FROM THE MUCH LARGER COMBINED LOW COULD LEAD
TO SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WITH A POSSIBILITY OF STORM SURGE INTO
THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR LARGE WAVES AND STORM SURGE
OVER WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE LABRADOR COAST WITH A LESSER RISK
FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THIS COMBINED STORM MAY END
UP REQUIRING A HOST OF ADDITIONAL WARNINGS COVERING LABRADOR, THE
GULF OF ST LAWRENCE REGION AND THE ISLAND (NL).
ONE FACTOR THAT MAY HELP EASE IMPACTS SOMEWHAT IS A RUN OF LOWER THAN
AVERAGE TIDES THIS WEEKEND.
3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.
GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND ATLANTIC CANADA ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FROM MARIA AND THE COMBINED STORM.
VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:
- FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.
- STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.
- HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.
- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.
PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.
END/FOGARTY
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Maritimer71
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 41
- Joined: Sun Aug 23, 2009 6:07 am
- Location: Nova Scotia - Canada
FXCN31 CWHX 151800
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT
THURSDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2011.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 3.00 PM ADT , HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
33.8 N AND LONGITUDE 66.2 W , ABOUT 115 NAUTICAL MILES OR 210
KM NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 60 KNOTS ( 110 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 989 MB. MARIA
IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 30 KNOTS ( 55 KM/H ).
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 15 3.00 PM 33.8N 66.2W 989 60 110
SEP 15 9.00 PM 36.6N 64.2W 986 65 120
SEP 16 3.00 AM 39.4N 60.9W 982 65 120
SEP 16 9.00 AM 42.7N 57.5W 982 65 120
SEP 16 3.00 PM 45.9N 53.7W 986 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 16 9.00 PM 49.1N 49.7W 986 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 17 3.00 AM 52.8N 48.4W 988 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARIA IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AND
THE SURFACE PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FALL. ORGANISED CONVECTION PATTERN
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANT. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED TO -75 TO -80 C. AN EYE IS BECOMING APPARENT IN THE IMAGES
SINCE LATE MORNING. WEAK SHEAR EAST OF THE STORM AND STRONGER SHEAR
WEST OF IT HAVE NOT IMPEDED DEVELOPMENT. THE TRACK BRINGS MARIA
OVER SST VALUES OF 27-29C THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE STORM RELATIVE
SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE. THIS SUPPORTS THE FORECAST OF A
CATEGORY 1 SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS.
B. PROGNOSTIC
NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOUR PERIOD. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO
AGREE ON MARIA PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THE EARLY-CYCLE TRACK GUIDANCE FROM
12UTC SHOWS A MORE WESTERN TRACK PLACEMENT HENCE THE SMALL
ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK.
WHILE MOST INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH-END TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH WITH A FEW MODELS SUCH AS THE SHIPS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING
INTO A MARGINAL CAT-1 HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE EVIDENCE OF STRENGTHENING FROM RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY GIVES ENOUGH SUPPORT TO FORECAST IT DEVELOPING INTO A
MARGINAL HURRICANE UNTIL IT MOVES OVER CANADIAN WATERS. WHEN
MARIA MOVES OVER COOLER WATER NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AND INTO THE
INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IT WILL TRANSITION INTO A
POST-TROPICAL STORM.
THE SPRAWLING WIND FIELD AROUND THE STORM AND ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION MAY SPREAD WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK.
ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE MERGING OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE ENVELOPE WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT.
IN ANY EVENT MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A HEAVY
RAINFALL AND WIND EVENT FOR PARTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR.
THE GEM REG FOCUS THE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND WITH A HINT THAT 100MM IS POSSIBLE.
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
15/18Z 190 180 60 60 100 90 45 50 20 20 0 0
16/00Z 200 220 80 90 110 120 40 50 40 40 15 0
16/06Z 210 240 90 85 120 120 40 50 40 35 25 0
16/12Z 220 240 100 80 130 110 40 50 20 40 20 0
16/18Z 230 185 100 75 125 105 40 50 0 0 0 0
17/00Z 190 170 100 70 120 100 40 50 0 0 0 0
17/06Z 180 150 100 70 115 90 45 55 0 0 0 0
END/FOGARTY/COUTURIER
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT
THURSDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2011.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 3.00 PM ADT , HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
33.8 N AND LONGITUDE 66.2 W , ABOUT 115 NAUTICAL MILES OR 210
KM NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 60 KNOTS ( 110 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 989 MB. MARIA
IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 30 KNOTS ( 55 KM/H ).
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 15 3.00 PM 33.8N 66.2W 989 60 110
SEP 15 9.00 PM 36.6N 64.2W 986 65 120
SEP 16 3.00 AM 39.4N 60.9W 982 65 120
SEP 16 9.00 AM 42.7N 57.5W 982 65 120
SEP 16 3.00 PM 45.9N 53.7W 986 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 16 9.00 PM 49.1N 49.7W 986 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 17 3.00 AM 52.8N 48.4W 988 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARIA IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AND
THE SURFACE PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FALL. ORGANISED CONVECTION PATTERN
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANT. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED TO -75 TO -80 C. AN EYE IS BECOMING APPARENT IN THE IMAGES
SINCE LATE MORNING. WEAK SHEAR EAST OF THE STORM AND STRONGER SHEAR
WEST OF IT HAVE NOT IMPEDED DEVELOPMENT. THE TRACK BRINGS MARIA
OVER SST VALUES OF 27-29C THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE STORM RELATIVE
SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE. THIS SUPPORTS THE FORECAST OF A
CATEGORY 1 SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS.
B. PROGNOSTIC
NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOUR PERIOD. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO
AGREE ON MARIA PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THE EARLY-CYCLE TRACK GUIDANCE FROM
12UTC SHOWS A MORE WESTERN TRACK PLACEMENT HENCE THE SMALL
ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK.
WHILE MOST INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH-END TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH WITH A FEW MODELS SUCH AS THE SHIPS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING
INTO A MARGINAL CAT-1 HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE EVIDENCE OF STRENGTHENING FROM RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY GIVES ENOUGH SUPPORT TO FORECAST IT DEVELOPING INTO A
MARGINAL HURRICANE UNTIL IT MOVES OVER CANADIAN WATERS. WHEN
MARIA MOVES OVER COOLER WATER NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AND INTO THE
INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IT WILL TRANSITION INTO A
POST-TROPICAL STORM.
THE SPRAWLING WIND FIELD AROUND THE STORM AND ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION MAY SPREAD WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK.
ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE MERGING OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE ENVELOPE WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT.
IN ANY EVENT MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A HEAVY
RAINFALL AND WIND EVENT FOR PARTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR.
THE GEM REG FOCUS THE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND WITH A HINT THAT 100MM IS POSSIBLE.
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
15/18Z 190 180 60 60 100 90 45 50 20 20 0 0
16/00Z 200 220 80 90 110 120 40 50 40 40 15 0
16/06Z 210 240 90 85 120 120 40 50 40 35 25 0
16/12Z 220 240 100 80 130 110 40 50 20 40 20 0
16/18Z 230 185 100 75 125 105 40 50 0 0 0 0
17/00Z 190 170 100 70 120 100 40 50 0 0 0 0
17/06Z 180 150 100 70 115 90 45 55 0 0 0 0
END/FOGARTY/COUTURIER
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Maritimer71
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 41
- Joined: Sun Aug 23, 2009 6:07 am
- Location: Nova Scotia - Canada
WWCN31 CWHX 151812
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 3:12 PM ADT THURSDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= AVALON PENINSULA SOUTH.
TROPICAL STORM MARIA MAY REACH HURRICANE STATUS THIS EVENING
THEN INTERACT WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW AND TROUGH WITH WIND AND
RAIN OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT A TROPICAL STORM OR AN
INCIPIENT TROPICAL STORM CONDITION POSES A POSSIBLE THREAT TO
THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN 36 HOURS.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
THE REMNANTS OF MARIA ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE/INTERACT WITH A
DEVELOPING TROUGH TO ITS NORTH THAT WILL CONNECT TO A MUCH LARGER
NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER LABRADOR. MARIA SHOULD PASS CLOSE TO THE
AVALON PENINSULA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ATLANTIC CANADA ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS THE NON-TROPICAL LOW AND TROUGH NORTH OF MARIA UNITE
OVER THE REGION. THE HIGHEST WINDS DIRECTLY FROM MARIA WILL LIKELY
PASS JUST OFFSHORE - SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND. BUT A SHIFT IN THE STORM
TRACK ANY FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST WOULD INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIND GUSTS OF 100 KM/H OR MORE ON THE AVALON PENINSULA.
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WHERE 50
TO 80 MILLIMETRES IS EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD LEAD
TO LOCAL FLOODING IN PRONE AREAS IS POSSIBLE.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
END/FOGARTY/COUTURIER
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 3:12 PM ADT THURSDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= AVALON PENINSULA SOUTH.
TROPICAL STORM MARIA MAY REACH HURRICANE STATUS THIS EVENING
THEN INTERACT WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW AND TROUGH WITH WIND AND
RAIN OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT A TROPICAL STORM OR AN
INCIPIENT TROPICAL STORM CONDITION POSES A POSSIBLE THREAT TO
THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN 36 HOURS.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
THE REMNANTS OF MARIA ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE/INTERACT WITH A
DEVELOPING TROUGH TO ITS NORTH THAT WILL CONNECT TO A MUCH LARGER
NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER LABRADOR. MARIA SHOULD PASS CLOSE TO THE
AVALON PENINSULA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ATLANTIC CANADA ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS THE NON-TROPICAL LOW AND TROUGH NORTH OF MARIA UNITE
OVER THE REGION. THE HIGHEST WINDS DIRECTLY FROM MARIA WILL LIKELY
PASS JUST OFFSHORE - SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND. BUT A SHIFT IN THE STORM
TRACK ANY FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST WOULD INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIND GUSTS OF 100 KM/H OR MORE ON THE AVALON PENINSULA.
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WHERE 50
TO 80 MILLIMETRES IS EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD LEAD
TO LOCAL FLOODING IN PRONE AREAS IS POSSIBLE.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
END/FOGARTY/COUTURIER
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139008
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
18z Best Track
Maria will be the third hurricane of the 2011 North Atlantic season on the next advisory.
AL, 14, 2011091518, , BEST, 0, 338N, 666W, 65, 987, HU
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
Maria will be the third hurricane of the 2011 North Atlantic season on the next advisory.
AL, 14, 2011091518, , BEST, 0, 338N, 666W, 65, 987, HU
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
Maritimer71
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 41
- Joined: Sun Aug 23, 2009 6:07 am
- Location: Nova Scotia - Canada
FXCN31 CWHX 151830 CCA
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.30 PM ADT
THURSDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2011.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT
CORRECTED FIRST LINE OF PARAGRAPH NO.1. TROPICAL STORM INSTEAD
OF HURRICANE.
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 3.00 PM ADT , TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
33.8 N AND LONGITUDE 66.2 W , ABOUT 115 NAUTICAL MILES OR 210
KM NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 60 KNOTS ( 110 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 989 MB. MARIA
IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 30 KNOTS ( 55 KM/H ).
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 15 3.00 PM 33.8N 66.2W 990 60 111
SEP 15 9.00 PM 36.6N 64.2W 986 65 120
SEP 16 3.00 AM 39.4N 60.9W 982 65 120
SEP 16 9.00 AM 42.7N 57.5W 982 65 120
SEP 16 3.00 PM 45.9N 53.7W 986 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 16 9.00 PM 49.1N 49.7W 986 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 17 3.00 AM 52.8N 48.4W 988 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARIA IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AND
THE SURFACE PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FALL. ORGANISED CONVECTION PATTERN
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANT. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED TO -75 TO -80 C. AN EYE IS BECOMING APPARENT IN THE IMAGES
SINCE LATE MORNING. WEAK SHEAR EAST OF THE STORM AND STRONGER SHEAR
WEST OF IT HAVE NOT IMPEDED DEVELOPMENT. THE TRACK BRINGS MARIA
OVER SST VALUES OF 27-29C THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE STORM RELATIVE
SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE. THIS SUPPORTS THE FORECAST OF A
CATEGORY 1 SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS.
B. PROGNOSTIC
NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOUR PERIOD. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO
AGREE ON MARIA PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THE EARLY-CYCLE TRACK GUIDANCE FROM
12UTC SHOWS A MORE WESTERN TRACK PLACEMENT HENCE THE SMALL
ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK.
WHILE MOST INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH-END TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH WITH A FEW MODELS SUCH AS THE SHIPS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING
INTO A MARGINAL CAT-1 HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE EVIDENCE OF STRENGTHENING FROM RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY GIVES ENOUGH SUPPORT TO FORECAST IT DEVELOPING INTO A
MARGINAL HURRICANE UNTIL IT MOVES OVER CANADIAN WATERS. WHEN
MARIA MOVES OVER COOLER WATER NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AND INTO THE
INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IT WILL TRANSITION INTO A
POST-TROPICAL STORM.
THE SPRAWLING WIND FIELD AROUND THE STORM AND ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION MAY SPREAD WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK.
ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE MERGING OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE ENVELOPE WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT.
IN ANY EVENT MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A HEAVY
RAINFALL AND WIND EVENT FOR PARTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR.
THE GEM REG FOCUS THE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND WITH A HINT THAT 100MM IS POSSIBLE.
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
15/18Z 190 180 60 60 100 90 45 50 0 0 0 0
16/00Z 200 220 80 90 110 120 40 50 40 40 15 0
16/06Z 210 240 90 85 120 120 40 50 40 35 25 0
16/12Z 220 240 100 80 130 110 40 50 20 40 20 0
16/18Z 230 185 100 75 125 105 40 50 0 0 0 0
17/00Z 190 170 100 70 120 100 40 50 0 0 0 0
17/06Z 180 150 100 70 115 90 45 55 0 0 0 0
END/FOGARTY/COUTURIER
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.30 PM ADT
THURSDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2011.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT
CORRECTED FIRST LINE OF PARAGRAPH NO.1. TROPICAL STORM INSTEAD
OF HURRICANE.
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 3.00 PM ADT , TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
33.8 N AND LONGITUDE 66.2 W , ABOUT 115 NAUTICAL MILES OR 210
KM NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 60 KNOTS ( 110 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 989 MB. MARIA
IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 30 KNOTS ( 55 KM/H ).
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 15 3.00 PM 33.8N 66.2W 990 60 111
SEP 15 9.00 PM 36.6N 64.2W 986 65 120
SEP 16 3.00 AM 39.4N 60.9W 982 65 120
SEP 16 9.00 AM 42.7N 57.5W 982 65 120
SEP 16 3.00 PM 45.9N 53.7W 986 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 16 9.00 PM 49.1N 49.7W 986 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 17 3.00 AM 52.8N 48.4W 988 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARIA IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AND
THE SURFACE PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FALL. ORGANISED CONVECTION PATTERN
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANT. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED TO -75 TO -80 C. AN EYE IS BECOMING APPARENT IN THE IMAGES
SINCE LATE MORNING. WEAK SHEAR EAST OF THE STORM AND STRONGER SHEAR
WEST OF IT HAVE NOT IMPEDED DEVELOPMENT. THE TRACK BRINGS MARIA
OVER SST VALUES OF 27-29C THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE STORM RELATIVE
SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE. THIS SUPPORTS THE FORECAST OF A
CATEGORY 1 SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS.
B. PROGNOSTIC
NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOUR PERIOD. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO
AGREE ON MARIA PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THE EARLY-CYCLE TRACK GUIDANCE FROM
12UTC SHOWS A MORE WESTERN TRACK PLACEMENT HENCE THE SMALL
ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK.
WHILE MOST INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH-END TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH WITH A FEW MODELS SUCH AS THE SHIPS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING
INTO A MARGINAL CAT-1 HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE EVIDENCE OF STRENGTHENING FROM RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY GIVES ENOUGH SUPPORT TO FORECAST IT DEVELOPING INTO A
MARGINAL HURRICANE UNTIL IT MOVES OVER CANADIAN WATERS. WHEN
MARIA MOVES OVER COOLER WATER NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AND INTO THE
INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IT WILL TRANSITION INTO A
POST-TROPICAL STORM.
THE SPRAWLING WIND FIELD AROUND THE STORM AND ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION MAY SPREAD WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK.
ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE MERGING OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE ENVELOPE WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT.
IN ANY EVENT MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A HEAVY
RAINFALL AND WIND EVENT FOR PARTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR.
THE GEM REG FOCUS THE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND WITH A HINT THAT 100MM IS POSSIBLE.
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
15/18Z 190 180 60 60 100 90 45 50 0 0 0 0
16/00Z 200 220 80 90 110 120 40 50 40 40 15 0
16/06Z 210 240 90 85 120 120 40 50 40 35 25 0
16/12Z 220 240 100 80 130 110 40 50 20 40 20 0
16/18Z 230 185 100 75 125 105 40 50 0 0 0 0
17/00Z 190 170 100 70 120 100 40 50 0 0 0 0
17/06Z 180 150 100 70 115 90 45 55 0 0 0 0
END/FOGARTY/COUTURIER
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:18z Best Track
Maria will be the third hurricane of the 2011 North Atlantic season on the next advisory.
AL, 14, 2011091518, , BEST, 0, 338N, 666W, 65, 987, HU
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
Yup...we just increased our hurricane totals by 50%
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33393
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Although stranger things have happened, it looks like Maria will be the first storm to become a hurricane that fails to become a major.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Not asleep here
Looks like Maria finally got its act together. Hopefully Bermuda doesn't receive damaging weather. A bit OT, I've been kinda watching the USGS site 'cuz it's been a busy day for earthquakes....6.2 in Japan, 7.2 in Fiji, 5.0 in Cuba etc. Fascinating to see the ring of fire waking up.
Looks like Maria finally got its act together. Hopefully Bermuda doesn't receive damaging weather. A bit OT, I've been kinda watching the USGS site 'cuz it's been a busy day for earthquakes....6.2 in Japan, 7.2 in Fiji, 5.0 in Cuba etc. Fascinating to see the ring of fire waking up.
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Georges '98, Irene '99, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Katrina '05, Wilma '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Matthew '16, Florence '18, Michael '18, Ian '22
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139008
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: MARIA - Advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 PM AST THU SEP 15 2011
...MARIA BECOMES THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...HURRICANE WATCH
AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 65.6W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM NNW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1025 MI...1650 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO BRIGUS SOUTH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AVALON PENINSULA FROM ARNOLDS
COVE TO JONES HARBOR.
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO BRIGUS SOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO JONES HARBOR.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF AVALON
PENINSULA THIS EVENING.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST. MARIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 36 MPH...57 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AT AN
EVEN FASTER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON
PENINSULA ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MARIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING LIKELY BEGINS LATER ON FRIDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240
MILES...390 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE
WARNING AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ASSOCIATED WITH MARIA.
STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 PM AST THU SEP 15 2011
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT MARIA HAS BECOME A
HURRICANE. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AND A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS FORMED. AN EYE HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON
BERMUDA RADAR FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IT HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN
SEEN IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
65 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.
MARIA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...NOW MOVING
ABOUT 31 KT. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
AND MOVE 45 KT OR FASTER ON FRIDAY AS IT GET CAUGHT IN VERY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST CLOSE TO NEWFOUNDLAND...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE
MOVED IN THAT DIRECTION...THOUGH IT IS STILL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS
MODERATE AND THE WATER IS WARM. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TOMORROW
DUE TO RAPIDLY INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MUCH COOLER
WATERS. HOWEVER...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH
AS IT NEARS NEWFOUNDLAND TOMORROW...DUE IN PART TO THE EXPECTED VERY
FAST FORWARD MOTION. THE NHC FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.
THE LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY
NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. IF THERE IS A FURTHER
WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE OR MARIA BECOMES STRONGER...A
HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THIS EVENING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/2100Z 35.2N 65.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 39.6N 61.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 46.7N 54.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 54.5N 45.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 PM AST THU SEP 15 2011
...MARIA BECOMES THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...HURRICANE WATCH
AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 65.6W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM NNW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1025 MI...1650 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO BRIGUS SOUTH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AVALON PENINSULA FROM ARNOLDS
COVE TO JONES HARBOR.
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO BRIGUS SOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO JONES HARBOR.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF AVALON
PENINSULA THIS EVENING.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST. MARIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 36 MPH...57 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AT AN
EVEN FASTER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON
PENINSULA ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MARIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING LIKELY BEGINS LATER ON FRIDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240
MILES...390 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE
WARNING AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ASSOCIATED WITH MARIA.
STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 PM AST THU SEP 15 2011
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT MARIA HAS BECOME A
HURRICANE. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AND A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS FORMED. AN EYE HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON
BERMUDA RADAR FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IT HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN
SEEN IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
65 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.
MARIA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...NOW MOVING
ABOUT 31 KT. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
AND MOVE 45 KT OR FASTER ON FRIDAY AS IT GET CAUGHT IN VERY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST CLOSE TO NEWFOUNDLAND...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE
MOVED IN THAT DIRECTION...THOUGH IT IS STILL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS
MODERATE AND THE WATER IS WARM. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TOMORROW
DUE TO RAPIDLY INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MUCH COOLER
WATERS. HOWEVER...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH
AS IT NEARS NEWFOUNDLAND TOMORROW...DUE IN PART TO THE EXPECTED VERY
FAST FORWARD MOTION. THE NHC FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.
THE LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY
NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. IF THERE IS A FURTHER
WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE OR MARIA BECOMES STRONGER...A
HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THIS EVENING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/2100Z 35.2N 65.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 39.6N 61.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 46.7N 54.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 54.5N 45.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Age: 67
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
...MARIA BECOMES THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...HURRICANE WATCH
AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 65.6W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM NNW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1025 MI...1650 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 65.6W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM NNW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1025 MI...1650 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
And she officialy did it! Maria is now the 3rd hurricane of this weird season.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Good for her. Quite a fighter. Shouldn't be too bad in Newfoundland, but still a nasty storm.
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WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
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Maritimer71
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 41
- Joined: Sun Aug 23, 2009 6:07 am
- Location: Nova Scotia - Canada
WTCN31 CWHX 152113
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 6:13 PM ADT THURSDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY
=NEW= AVALON PENINSULA NORTH
=NEW= AVALON PENINSULA SOUTH.
MARIA REACHES HURRICANE STATUS THIS EVENING THEN INTERACTS WITH
A NON-TROPICAL LOW AND TROUGH WITH HIGH WIND AND RAIN OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED GALES...WINDS OF
63 KM/H OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED IN THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN 24
HOURS. BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF
LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
HURRICANE MARIA WILL APPROACH THE AVALON PENINSULA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE REMNANTS OF MARIA ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE/INTERACT WITH A
DEVELOPING TROUGH TO ITS NORTH THAT WILL CONNECT TO A MUCH LARGER
NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER LABRADOR.
THERE WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ATLANTIC CANADA ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS THE NON-TROPICAL LOW AND TROUGH NORTH OF MARIA UNITE
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER WIND GUSTS OF 100 KM/H OR MORE ARE EXPECTED
ON THE AVALON PENINSULA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WHERE 60
TO 90 MILLIMETRES ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD LEAD
TO LOCAL FLOODING IN PRONE AREAS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
END/FOGARTY/COUTURIER
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 6:13 PM ADT THURSDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY
=NEW= AVALON PENINSULA NORTH
=NEW= AVALON PENINSULA SOUTH.
MARIA REACHES HURRICANE STATUS THIS EVENING THEN INTERACTS WITH
A NON-TROPICAL LOW AND TROUGH WITH HIGH WIND AND RAIN OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED GALES...WINDS OF
63 KM/H OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED IN THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN 24
HOURS. BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF
LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
HURRICANE MARIA WILL APPROACH THE AVALON PENINSULA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE REMNANTS OF MARIA ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE/INTERACT WITH A
DEVELOPING TROUGH TO ITS NORTH THAT WILL CONNECT TO A MUCH LARGER
NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER LABRADOR.
THERE WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ATLANTIC CANADA ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS THE NON-TROPICAL LOW AND TROUGH NORTH OF MARIA UNITE
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER WIND GUSTS OF 100 KM/H OR MORE ARE EXPECTED
ON THE AVALON PENINSULA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WHERE 60
TO 90 MILLIMETRES ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD LEAD
TO LOCAL FLOODING IN PRONE AREAS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
END/FOGARTY/COUTURIER
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33393
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re:
WeatherGuesser wrote:HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND
Don't see that everyday.
It's not as uncommon as many think. Newfoundland is in a prime area to catch recurves.
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HurricaneBelle
- S2K Supporter
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- Location: Clearwater, FL
Re: Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:It's not as uncommon as many think. Newfoundland is in a prime area to catch recurves.
Especially Cape Race, which sticks out like Hatteras.
Last edited by HurricaneBelle on Thu Sep 15, 2011 7:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139008
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: MARIA - Advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
800 PM AST THU SEP 15 2011
...MARIA ACCELERATING TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 65.0W
ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO BRIGUS SOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO JONES HARBOUR.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE AVALON
PENINSULA THIS EVENING.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST. MARIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AT AN
EVEN FASTER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON
PENINSULA ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MARIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING LIKELY BEGINS LATER ON FRIDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE-WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240
MILES...390 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE
WARNING AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ASSOCIATED WITH MARIA.
STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
HURRICANE MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
800 PM AST THU SEP 15 2011
...MARIA ACCELERATING TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 65.0W
ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO BRIGUS SOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO JONES HARBOUR.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE AVALON
PENINSULA THIS EVENING.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST. MARIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AT AN
EVEN FASTER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON
PENINSULA ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MARIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING LIKELY BEGINS LATER ON FRIDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE-WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240
MILES...390 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE
WARNING AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ASSOCIATED WITH MARIA.
STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Deputy Van Halen
- Tropical Storm
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- Location: Texas City, TX
Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
What's the record for the furthest north that a storm first attained hurricane strength? Maria didn't get there until 35N, don't think I've seen that since I've been paying attention to storms.
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