ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Macrocane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I would have put the intensity on 60 kt, looks to be getting organized at a fairly good pace and the structure has improved significantly especially in the last hour or so, Maria is approaching the Dmax so it could be a hurricane by morning.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 AM AST THU SEP 15 2011

THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL DIFFICULT TO LOCATE
ON IR IMAGES...BUT A 0506 UTC TRMM PASS SHOWS THAT THE CENTER WAS
LOCATED WEST OF THE CONVECTION. IT MEANS THAT THE CYCLONE IS STILL
SHEARED. LATEST T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB WERE 3.5 ON THE
THE DVORAK SCALE YIELDING AN INITIAL INTENSITY IS OF 55 KNOTS.
THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR MARIA TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY
BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES FURTHER AND THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER
WATERS. THEREAFTER...MARIA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
DISSIPATE AS IT BECOMES ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

MARIA IS ACCELERATING AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 015 DEGREES AT 23 KNOTS. MARIA IS
RAPIDLY BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND A STRONG MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND CANADA. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS INDICATED BY GUIDANCE.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD BE MINDFUL THAT STRONG WINDS EXTEND WELL
TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 30.2N 68.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 33.7N 66.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 39.0N 61.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 45.0N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/0600Z 51.0N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
800 AM AST THU SEP 15 2011

...RAIN BANDS FROM MARIA AFFECTING BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 67.8W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 18 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.8 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
AND AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL QUICKLY PASS WEST OF
BERMUDA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT MARIA WILL BECOME A HURRICANE
TODAY. HOWEVER...WEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
BERMUDA THROUGH TODAY.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATER
TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN

[Maritimer71]

WOCN31 CWHX 151145
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9:04 AM ADT THURSDAY
15 SEPTEMBER 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA.

FOR TROPICAL STORM MARIA.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 PM ADT.

TROPICAL STORM MARIA MAY REACH HURRICANE STATUS TODAY THEN
INTERACT WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW AND TROUGH WITH WIND AND RAIN
OVER MUCH OF ATLANTIC CANADA.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9:00 AM ADT.

LOCATION: ABOUT 31.4 NORTH 68.0 WEST.

ABOUT 330 KILOMETRES SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 110 KM/HOUR.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTHERLY AT 46 KM/H.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 MB.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

THE REMNANTS OF MARIA ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE/INTERACT WITH A
DEVELOPING TROUGH TO ITS NORTH THAT WILL CONNECT TO A MUCH LARGER
NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER LABRADOR.

OUR LATEST TRACK (ON THE http://WWW.HURRICANES.CA WEBSITE) SHOWS MARIA
PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER - IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO PORTRAY THE COMPLEXITY OF
THE MERGING OF MARIA'S WINDS AND MOISTURE WITH THE NON-TROPICAL
WEATHER SYSTEMS TO ITS NORTH WITH A SINGLE TRACK LINE.

A. WIND.

THERE WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ATLANTIC CANADA ON FRIDAY
AS THE NON-TROPICAL LOW AND TROUGH NORTH OF MARIA DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION. THE HIGHEST WINDS DIRECTLY FROM MARIA WILL LIKELY PASS
OFFSHORE - SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND. BUT A SHIFT IN THE STORM TRACK TO
THE NORTHWEST WOULD INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY OF 100 KM/H WIND GUSTS
ON THE AVALON PENINSULA.

B. RAINFALL.

RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER MANY PARTS OF ATLANTIC CANADA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY FROM THE NON-TROPICAL LOW AND THE TROUGH DEVELOPING NORTH OF
MARIA. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE TROUGH WHERE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS. THIS REGION INCLUDES
EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WHERE 50 TO 80 MILLIMETRES MAY FALL.
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH LESSER TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER
NOVA SCOTIA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.

NOTE THAT WHENEVER MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL STORM FEEDS INTO A
FRONT/TROUGH IT IS LIKELY THAT RAINFALL RATES OF 15 TO 25 MILLIMETRES
PER HOUR WOULD OCCUR. SUCH RATES COULD LEAD TO FLASH-TYPE FLOODING
IN DITCHES AND SMALL RIVERS ESPECIALLY WHERE TERRAIN IS STEEP.
LOCAL FLOODING IN PRONE AREAS IS POSSIBLE. FORTUNATELY, RIVER WATER
LEVELS ARE AT OR BELOW NORMAL OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. KEEP IN
MIND HOWEVER THAT SMALLER RIVERS/CREEKS WILL RESPOND MORE QUICKLY TO
HEAVY RAIN THAN LARGER ONES.

RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR RAMEA CONNAIGRE EAST TO THE
AVALON PENINSULA THEN NORTH TO BONAVISTA AND TERRA NOVA PARK.

C. SURGE/WAVES.

MOST COASTAL REGIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND CAN EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD ON
FRIDAY AS THE WEATHER SYSTEMS INTERACT. WE DO NOT FORSEE ANY
EXCEPTIONAL WAVE OR SURGE ACTIVITY DUE TO MARIA ITSELF AT THIS POINT,
BUT PLEASE STAY TUNED TO UPCOMING BULLETINS. ONE FACTOR THAT WILL
HELP MINIMISE IMPACTS IS A RUN OF LOWER THAN AVERAGE TIDES THIS
WEEKEND.

THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE SOUTH OF MARIA AND SHOULD REACH 4 TO 7
METRES LATE FRIDAY, MAINLY OVER THE GRAND BANKS.

SURGE AND WAVE ACTIVITY FROM THE MUCH LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW THAT
DRAWS MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM MARIA COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS WITH A POSSIBILITY OF STORM SURGE INTO THE WEEKEND.
SEVERAL COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RISK FOR LARGE WAVES AND
STORM SURGE WOULD BE WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE LABRADOR COAST WITH
A LESSER RISK FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND ATLANTIC CANADA ON
FRIDAY - EITHER FROM MARIA, THE LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW, OR THE
TROUGH CONNECTING THEM.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:

- FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

- STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

- HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/MERCER/FOGARTY

[Maritimer71]

FXCN31 CWHX 151200
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT
THURSDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2011.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT , TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
31.4 N AND LONGITUDE 68.0 W , ABOUT 180 NAUTICAL MILES OR 330
KM WEST SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS ( 111 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 997
MB. MARIA IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 27 KNOTS ( 50 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 15 9.00 AM 31.4N 68.0W 997 60 111
SEP 15 9.00 PM 36.0N 64.8W 980 65 120
SEP 16 9.00 AM 41.8N 57.8W 982 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 16 9.00 PM 47.5N 49.5W 986 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 17 9.00 AM 53.6N 42.7W 990 55 102 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARIA IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AND
THE SURFACE PRESSURE IS SLOWLY FALLING. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
ORGANISED CONVECTION PATTERN WITH GOOD OUTFLOW NORTH AND SOUTH.
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO -75 TO -80 C. WHILE THERE
IS WEAK SHEAR EAST OF THE STORM AND STRONGER SHEAR WEST OF IT, THIS
DOESN'T SEEM TO HAVE IMPEDED DEVELOPMENT. THE TRACK BRINGS MARIA
OVER SST VALUES OF 27-29C THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE VERTICAL
SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

HOWEVER A TRMM PASS AT 0506Z SHOWED THE SURFACE CIRCULATION
DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION NEEDED TO
DRIVE IT. BUT GIVEN THE OTHER FACTORS ABOVE GIVING A FAIR CHANCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FORECAST OF A CATEGORY 1 SYSTEM
WITHIN 12-24 HOURS AT THIS TIME.

B. PROGNOSTIC

NWP CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOUR PERIOD. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO
AGREE ON MARIA PASSING SOUTHEAST OR NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF
NEWFOUNDLAND. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST CYCLE SO THE TRACK IS ONLY SLIGHTLY TWEAKED.

WHILE MOST INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH-END TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH WITH A FEW MODELS SUCH AS THE SHIPS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING
INTO A MARGINAL CAT-1 HURRICANE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE EVIDENCE OF
STRENGTHENING OBSERVED FROM LAST EVENING RECON FLIGHT AND RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY GIVES ENOUGH SUPPORT TO FORECAST IT DEVELOPING
INTO A MARGINAL HURRICANE UNTIL IT MOVES NEAR CANADIAN WATERS. WHEN
IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AND INTO A MORE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IT WILL BECOME A STRONG TROPICAL STORM UNTIL
BECOMING POST-TROPICAL JUST BEFORE IT ENTERS CANADIAN FORECAST
WATERS.

WHILE THE TRACK OF MARIA MAY TAKE A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT THE
SPRAWLING WIND FIELD AROUND THE STORM AND ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION MAY SPREAD WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK.
ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE MERGING OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE ENVELOPE WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT.
IN ANY EVENT SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS ARE SUGGESTING
A HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND EVENT FOR PARTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE INDICATES A 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A RAINFALL
EVENT EXCEEDING 50 MM ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
15/12Z 180 160 80 90 90 80 50 60 0 0 0 0
16/00Z 200 190 80 90 110 100 40 50 50 40 30 0
16/12Z 220 200 100 80 130 110 40 50 40 30 20 0
17/00Z 240 170 100 70 120 100 40 50 0 0 0 0
17/12Z 210 130 100 70 110 80 50 60 0 0 0 0

END/MERCER/FOGARTY/COUTURIER

[HurrMark]

Almost there...

000
WTNT34 KNHC 151438
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST THU SEP 15 2011

...MARIA JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 67.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.0 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 30 MPH...48 KM/H. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
AND AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN MOVE AWAY FROM
THE ISLAND LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
LATER TODAY...BUT SHOULD START TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335
KM...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
BERMUDA THROUGH TODAY.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON BERMUDA
THROUGH TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN

[wxman57]

What? We have a near-hurricane out there in the tropics and no one cares about it? Has everyone here gone to sleep?

[CrazyC83]

I guess everyone fell asleep with the shear everywhere else.

[Macrocane]

I care! I hope to see Maria as hurricane later today, of course I don't want damages in Bermuda but Maria is moving so fast that the effects are not going to last much time in there.

[EDR1222]

Maybe some of the experts can chime in. How does a tropical system, embedded in deep southwesterly flow ( I am assuming this means at the lower, mid and upper levels of the atmosphere ), moving at 30 mph manage to strengthen. I thought this type of environment would be what would tear apart a tropical storm or hurricane. I know that normally you always hear warm water, light upper level winds, abundant moisture, and ideally, an anticyclone over the top of the system make for good conditions for strengthening. Just curious because often times we see these storms turn and accelerate in the higher latitudes and then begin to strengthen. Is it possible that when they get to this point, they are not true tropical systems, but maybe subtropical? Thanks in advance.

[wxman57]

Maybe some of the experts can chime in. How does a tropical system, embedded in deep southwesterly flow ( I am assuming this means at the lower, mid and upper levels of the atmosphere ), moving at 30 mph manage to strengthen. I thought this type of environment would be what would tear apart a tropical storm or hurricane. I know that normally you always hear warm water, light upper level winds, abundant moisture, and ideally, an anticyclone over the top of the system make for good conditions for strengthening. Just curious because often times we see these storms turn and accelerate in the higher latitudes and then begin to strengthen. Is it possible that when they get to this point, they are not true tropical systems, but maybe subtropical? Thanks in advance.

Easy answer. When Maria was stationary and the winds aloft were out of the southwest at 20-30 mph, there was 20-30 mph of shear. Now that Maria is moving at that speed, the relative wind shear has dropped. Shear is decreasing as Maria accelerates to match the wind speeds aloft.

[WeatherGuesser]

What? We have a near-hurricane out there in the tropics and no one cares about it? Has everyone here gone to sleep?

Only 7 members viewing this thread as of now, so the rest are either asleep, or thoroughly uninterested.

[AdamFirst]

What? We have a near-hurricane out there in the tropics and no one cares about it? Has everyone here gone to sleep?

No threat to CONUS = majority of people don't care.

That was evident when Nate decided to go to Veracruz rather than Vermilion Parish and points eastward.

[EDR1222]

Maybe some of the experts can chime in. How does a tropical system, embedded in deep southwesterly flow ( I am assuming this means at the lower, mid and upper levels of the atmosphere ), moving at 30 mph manage to strengthen. I thought this type of environment would be what would tear apart a tropical storm or hurricane. I know that normally you always hear warm water, light upper level winds, abundant moisture, and ideally, an anticyclone over the top of the system make for good conditions for strengthening. Just curious because often times we see these storms turn and accelerate in the higher latitudes and then begin to strengthen. Is it possible that when they get to this point, they are not true tropical systems, but maybe subtropical? Thanks in advance.

Easy answer. When Maria was stationary and the winds aloft were out of the southwest at 20-30 mph, there was 20-30 mph of shear. Now that Maria is moving at that speed, the relative wind shear has dropped. Shear is decreasing as Maria accelerates to match the wind speeds aloft.

Thanks for the info Wxman57.

[capepoint]

What? We have a near-hurricane out there in the tropics and no one cares about it? Has everyone here gone to sleep?

Only 7 members viewing this thread as of now, so the rest are either asleep, or thoroughly uninterested.

...or too busy still cleaning-up after Isabel

[Nimbus]

Maria is now past Bermuda, they did not experience any of the core winds and they should be getting some partial sunshine in the dry slot in her wake by sunset.

[Macrocane]

Maria looks like a hurricane to me, the eyewall seems to be closing to the south and a ragged eye is forming, the convection is increasing and the outflow remains good.

[bg1]

What? We have a near-hurricane out there in the tropics and no one cares about it? Has everyone here gone to sleep?

I guess everyone fell asleep with the shear everywhere else.

I was figuratively asleep even before I saw the shear map yesterday . I'm usually interested in Atlantic storms whether they are affecting anyone or not, but for the last few days I literally kept forgetting there was one. I guess it's because it's the middle of September and conditions are unfavorable for even a low-latitude wave to organize.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
200 PM AST THU SEP 15 2011

...MARIA MOVING BY BERMUDA...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR
NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 66.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM NW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO BRIGUS
SOUTH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO BRIGUS SOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITH 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND BERMUDA RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 66.5 WEST. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
NEAR 32 MPH...52 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AT AN EVEN FASTER FORWARD
SPEED EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
MARIA WILL MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...BUT
SHOULD START TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335
KM...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. COMMISSIONERS POINT...AN
ELEVATED LOCATION ON BERMUDA...HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 52
MPH...83 KM/H...WITH GUSTS TO 69 MPH...111 KM/H.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
BERMUDA THROUGH TODAY.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON BERMUDA
THROUGH TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH
AREA IN CANADA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN

[underthwx]

The Post Chronicle
T.S. Maria Forecast To Pass West Of Bermuda
by Staff
Bermuda could see tropical storm, possibly hurricane, conditions Thursday as Tropical Storm Maria passes by the island, forecasters in Miami said.

The entire island was under a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning as Maria, with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph, was expected to pass west of Bermuda later in the day, the National Hurricane Center said in its 8 a.m. EDT advisory. The storm was about 325 miles west-southwest of Bermuda, moving north-northeast at 26 mph.


Excerpt from The Post Chronicle....of interest to our friends in Bermuda..

Latest Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Tropical Storm Warning
Updated: 11:30 am Thursday, September 15, 2011
Hurricane Watch
Valid: Ended
Updated: 11:30 am Thursday, September 15, 2011
Tropical Storm Warning
A warning for tropical storm conditions, including possible sustained winds within the range 34-63 knots (63-117 km/h) (39-73 mph) expected to affect Bermuda or the local marine area out to 25 nautical miles within 36 hours or less.
Hurricane Watch
An announcement for Bermuda or the local marine area out to 25 nautical miles that a hurricane or an incipient hurricane condition (including, but not limited to mean wind speeds greater than 64 knots, and significant waves & swell) poses a possible threat within 48 hours.
Please refer to the latest forecast for detailed information on conditions likely to affect Bermuda and the surrounding marine area. This is available by logging onto our website at http://www.weather.bm.

The above warning(s) will be updated as conditions warrant.
- Meteorologist: Ken Smith


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