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ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion
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Aric Dunn
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becoming more defined around 20N 94W
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
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bamajammer4eva
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
Doubt we'd be unlucky as to get 2 tropical systems in a week but mobile says this. BTW this would likely be Nate if it forms. 2005 I believe only got to the R storm by the end of Sept. 3 more names this month and we'd be on track with 05
.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...BOTH THE SREF AND ECMWF START
MOVING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW NORTHWARD BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO TAKE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND VERY SLOWLY MEANDER THE SYSTEM WEST
TOWARDS MEXICO. HAVE A BIT OF TIME TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
SYSTEM...SO MAINTAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. /22
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CYCLONE MIKE
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
Just got home and find we have 96L. Figured it would get declared today with building convection yesterday and more and more model suppor. Its funny reading the Opal comments today. I said yesterday this has an Opal like scenario with it. Doesn't matter much but only difference is she was a month later. Looks like this has the potential to cause some major evacuations in New Orleans if the latest euro runs are close to being right. Opal scared the you know what out of us in south LA as she was bombing out while moving north. Fortunately she turned NE and unfortunately hit the panhandle instead.
I am going with the euro on this storm. Just don't see this getting trapped and drifting west into mexico like the GFS and others show. Was burned on Lee and Irene for that matter. IF it does eventually move north, IMO early target zone looks to be around Vermillion Bay east to about Pensacola. Of course not an official forecast just what some weather junkie thinks.
I am going with the euro on this storm. Just don't see this getting trapped and drifting west into mexico like the GFS and others show. Was burned on Lee and Irene for that matter. IF it does eventually move north, IMO early target zone looks to be around Vermillion Bay east to about Pensacola. Of course not an official forecast just what some weather junkie thinks.
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Jevo
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18Z GFS Initalized
18z GFS +24
18z GFS +24
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Models all over the place with this ysstem, the ECM should nedver be under-estimated when it comes to these systems, however I do sorta think the CMC actually is a better call then either the GFS or the ECM.
Oe thing is for sure, all three suggest hurricane out of this...
Oe thing is for sure, all three suggest hurricane out of this...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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CYCLONE MIKE
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
I do not trust the CMC at all and the GFS is right on its tail. Look what both did with Irene bringing it into the gulf run after run. This has north gulf coast written all over. Not buying into the storm gets trapped and loops around in the gulf under a building high anymore this year 
Early thinking is Vermillion Bay to Pensacola seems most at risk. Houma to Mobile being bullseye. Of course this is just my opinion so take it for what its worth, not much
Early thinking is Vermillion Bay to Pensacola seems most at risk. Houma to Mobile being bullseye. Of course this is just my opinion so take it for what its worth, not much
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
18z GFS through 48 hours: Weaker ridging (compared to 12z)...there's a "gap" developing over the central Gomex
Through 60 hours: Low over Indiana is a good bit stronger
Through 90 hours: 96L drifting west over BOC
Through 60 hours: Low over Indiana is a good bit stronger
Through 90 hours: 96L drifting west over BOC
Last edited by rockyman on Tue Sep 06, 2011 5:12 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Jevo
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18z GFS +48
18z GFS +72
18z GFS +72
Last edited by Jevo on Tue Sep 06, 2011 5:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
when in doubt just look at the EURO.. 
.if it flips tonight then you have a good idea and place your bets....
.if it flips tonight then you have a good idea and place your bets....
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TwisterFanatic
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
HouTXmetro wrote:I don't know what's going with Euro this year
Not sure what you mean? It's been the best so far this year.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
thru 84hr the 18GFS still shows a developing system deep in the BOC....
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MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
Sept and Oct BOC storms for the most part move to the NNE to NE....I believe this will be a north GOM threat most likely...MGC
Of course the above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.
Of course the above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.
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Jevo
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18z GFS +96
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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Jevo
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
ROCK wrote:buries it into MX again....run after run...
Indeed... we'll see what King Euro says
18z GFS +123
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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