ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#81 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 06, 2011 6:53 pm

40%

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY...IF
NECESSARY.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#82 Postby Ixolib » Tue Sep 06, 2011 6:55 pm

When might we be able to "place bets" (see Rock!!) regarding the ultimate direction or landfall? Tonight..., within 24 hours..., beyond...?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#83 Postby Frank P » Tue Sep 06, 2011 6:57 pm

I think the HWFR has it about right on it initialization, its way down in the BOC in my opinion..... after that all bets are off... GFDL has sorta been left biased most of the season on early runs... if I was a betting man, I'd put my money on the mighty Euro, esp if the next run takes it back towards Al/Fl... regardless, all premature speculating on my part.. :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#84 Postby Frank P » Tue Sep 06, 2011 7:01 pm

Gee Ixolib, I'd hate to see Rock cry if this becomes another Texas Tease... ... so I am wishcasting for the great state of Texas.... but it going to have to convinced the Euro first.... love the center relocation posts that are sure to come up if this ever does develop... got my 10 inches plus of rain this past weekend... I'm good thank you
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#85 Postby Ixolib » Tue Sep 06, 2011 7:09 pm

Frank P wrote:Gee Ixolib, I'd hate to see Rock cry if this becomes another Texas Tease... ... so I am wishcasting for the great state of Texas.... but it going to have to convinced the Euro first.... love the center relocation posts that are sure to come up if this ever does develop... got my 10 inches plus of rain this past weekend... I'm good thank you
Yeah, man, it was certainly a wet weekend. 'Nuff is enough!! But on the positive side, they sure got 90 cleaned off quick!! MDOT seems to have that chore finally figured out pretty well.

BTW, now that I'm back in Biloxi, I drive by your house every day on my way to and from work in Gulfport. On that note, when does the next the Euro run? Seems that is the model that everyone is touting as "the one".
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#86 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 06, 2011 7:13 pm

Ixolib wrote:
Frank P wrote:Gee Ixolib, I'd hate to see Rock cry if this becomes another Texas Tease... ... so I am wishcasting for the great state of Texas.... but it going to have to convinced the Euro first.... love the center relocation posts that are sure to come up if this ever does develop... got my 10 inches plus of rain this past weekend... I'm good thank you
Yeah, man, it was certainly a wet weekend. 'Nuff is enough!! But on the positive side, they sure got 90 cleaned off quick!! MDOT seems to have that chore finally figured out pretty well.

BTW, now that I'm back in Biloxi, I drive by your house every day on my way to and from work in Gulfport. On that note, when does the next the Euro run? Seems that is the model that everyone is touting as "the one".



runs are 1:00 am CST....if it flops the way the GFS shows then I might have no choice but to follow it....it is pretty good in the short range....

yes I will cry...we have wildfires springing up north of the city today...where you typically dont see wildfires..we are burning and running out of water....literally..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#87 Postby Frank P » Tue Sep 06, 2011 7:15 pm

not sure, I think later tonight.. I was not that much of a Euro fan but I am this year.. hey, I got a text message from my pal Cantore on Sunday.. super nice guy, maybe he'll ride out the next storm in Biloxi at my house.. he's got a standing offer..... glad you are back on the Ms coast... where you belong...
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#88 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Sep 06, 2011 7:16 pm

8 p.m. TWD excerpt from NHC for 96L


A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED AT THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N94W.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS ANTICIPATED TO BE SLOW. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE LOW CENTER FROM
18N-21N BETWEEN 92W-97W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#89 Postby Ixolib » Tue Sep 06, 2011 7:16 pm

ROCK wrote:runs are 1:00 am CST....if it flops the way the GFS shows then I might have no choice but to follow it....it is pretty good in the short range....
Thanks, Rock. I'm sure you'll probably stay up for it, but I'll most probably have to wait 'til I wake up around 6'ish...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#90 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 06, 2011 7:17 pm

Frank P wrote:I think the HWFR has it about right on it initialization, its way down in the BOC in my opinion..... after that all bets are off... GFDL has sorta been left biased most of the season on early runs... if I was a betting man, I'd put my money on the mighty Euro, esp if the next run takes it back towards Al/Fl... regardless, all premature speculating on my part.. :)


I dont know Frank....NAM is showing something similar in the 18Z....Oh I hug the EURO more than my wife but I need one more run before I say NNE...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#91 Postby cyclogenesis » Tue Sep 06, 2011 7:18 pm

September 6, 2011
this Tuesday evening
639 PM CDT



Gang ~~ I have placed a NEW weather writing on to my website, about your 96L investigation disturbance located in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico this evening at 630 PM CDT. At this time, I've chosen *NOT* to dispense the writing to my weather e-mailer list, as I this is my FIRST, early-hand look at it. I want to study some more on it, before making a committment.


It looks pretty sad on satellite early this evening, because of all the DRY air that it's being engulfed by, and will continue posing problems in the next day or 2. See more on the weblink below.


You can read my early, first-hand thoughts by following this website weblink down below:



http://cvamagic.tripod.com/







-- cyclogenesis
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#92 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 06, 2011 7:19 pm

Ixolib wrote:
ROCK wrote:runs are 1:00 am CST....if it flops the way the GFS shows then I might have no choice but to follow it....it is pretty good in the short range....
Thanks, Rock. I'm sure you'll probably stay up for it, but I'll most probably have to wait 'til I wake up around 6'ish...



yeah, I might turn in early...I am sure that STS will be up for it... :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#93 Postby Frank P » Tue Sep 06, 2011 7:25 pm

ROCK wrote:
Frank P wrote:I think the HWFR has it about right on it initialization, its way down in the BOC in my opinion..... after that all bets are off... GFDL has sorta been left biased most of the season on early runs... if I was a betting man, I'd put my money on the mighty Euro, esp if the next run takes it back towards Al/Fl... regardless, all premature speculating on my part.. :)


I dont know Frank....NAM is showing something similar in the 18Z....Oh I hug the EURO more than my wife but I need one more run before I say NNE...


funny Rock.. I guess that's the beauty in tracking the systems... we really never know for sure... not a big fan of NAM but regardless, we got some home brew stirring so it makes it just a little more interesting...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#94 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 06, 2011 7:33 pm

00z Best Track

At the moment is stationary.

AL, 96, 2011090700, , BEST, 0, 206N, 938W, 25, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#95 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 06, 2011 7:36 pm

thats where I see some turning in the the mid-levels....

plenty of hot tub water down there...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#96 Postby weatherSnoop » Tue Sep 06, 2011 7:39 pm

Ixolib wrote:
Frank P wrote:Gee Ixolib, I'd hate to see Rock cry if this becomes another Texas Tease... ... so I am wishcasting for the great state of Texas.... but it going to have to convinced the Euro first.... love the center relocation posts that are sure to come up if this ever does develop... got my 10 inches plus of rain this past weekend... I'm good thank you
Yeah, man, it was certainly a wet weekend. 'Nuff is enough!! But on the positive side, they sure got 90 cleaned off quick!! MDOT seems to have that chore finally figured out pretty well.

BTW, now that I'm back in Biloxi, I drive by your house every day on my way to and from work in Gulfport. On that note, when does the next the Euro run? Seems that is the model that everyone is touting as "the one".


We will miss you down here, Ixolib...glad you were able to return "home"
Lee
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#97 Postby BigA » Tue Sep 06, 2011 7:41 pm

Once again, most of the GFS ensembles that develop 96L move it north or northeast, not west. It will be interesting to see, if development happens, whether the ensembles or operational verifies better.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#98 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Sep 06, 2011 7:56 pm

Hard to believe this system poses much of a threat to the US given the unseasonably dry and cool air across the entire northern Gulf. Going to be interesting to see what the 00z GFS and Euro show for this system.
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#99 Postby maxintensity » Tue Sep 06, 2011 8:05 pm

IMO the credibility of the Euro is on the line after the debacle that model had with Lee and Katia. It deserves the benefit of the doubt but this is the last time. We'll need to start looking at the Euro in a different light if it blows this forecast.
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Re:

#100 Postby Frank P » Tue Sep 06, 2011 8:10 pm

maxintensity wrote:IMO the credibility of the Euro is on the line after the debacle that model had with Lee and Katia. It deserves the benefit of the doubt but this is the last time. We'll need to start looking at the Euro in a different light if it blows this forecast.


Actually I though the Euro did good with both Irene and Lee... have not been paying attention to Katia since it really should not affect the US...
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