ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

Yeah..12z FIM into Pensacola

[url=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/585/mslpsfcf156.png/][img]http://img585.imageshack.us/img585/9297/mslpsfcf156.pngurl]

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What website did you get that model run from? I have never seen that before.

The link was posted a few posts above mine. Also, please remove IMG tags when quoting an image.

[tobol.7uno]

The link was posted a few posts above mine. Also, please remove IMG tags when quoting an image.

Ok got it, thanks, always great to find new things! Thats why I am here!

[Ivanhater]

The reason a track like Opal seems more likely imo is because of the set up. We have a cut off low hanging around the south all week. This brought record lows this morning in Pensacola and we will be below normal all week. Still a lot of uncertainty though.

[fwbbreeze]

had this article saved about the setup during Opal.

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/wopal.htm

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Yeah..12z FIM into Pensacola

What website did you get that model run from? I have never seen that before.

http://fim.noaa.gov/

To get to that specific loop, in left column on that page, under "FIM Plots", click "30km FIM (GSI-GFS init)".

On the next page make sure "30km FIM" is selected as "Model" and "W. Atlantic" is selected as "Domain".

Finally, in the large chart, about eleven rows down, you will find "MSLP". Click the little check mark in the "Loop" column.

[bigdan35]

[Aric Dunn]

The reason a track like Opal seems more likely imo is because of the set up. We have a cut off low hanging around the south all week. This brought record lows this morning in Pensacola and we will be below normal all week. Still a lot of uncertainty though.

exactly the boundary that this is forming along it partially attached to that developing low and trough.. and with it forecast to retrograde west that would this system in anywhere from a WSW to SW flow depending on how far west and south the low retrogrades. but it could be that enough ridging build in between the low from now till it develops to keep it far enough in the SW BOC that it just moves into mexico. but like you said still up in the Air... literally lol

[Jevo]

Wow the GFS and Euro do not like each other this year

12z GFS+135 into Mexico



I guess we'll see which verifys

[bigdan35]

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[tobol.7uno]

A few models have been released. We will see more later.
From our Facebook page...

[BigA]

12Z run of the Fox WRF model moves this nearly due north, but not so far that it couldn't turn back west to Mexico.

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... f_slp.html

[Houstonia]

My main worry at this time is any wind impacts it will have in Texas. If it does something similar to Lee, all that will do is cause more fire danger for Texas. South Texas is also bone dry, so any wind (without rain) will have potential harmful effects on them as well.

[SunnyThoughts]

I don't like any one model over the other..but this time, I hope the Euro is WRONG WRONG WRONG ( not that I wish anything on Mexico either)

[HouTXmetro]

I don't know what's going with Euro this year

[northjaxpro]

19Z HPC surface analysis has a 1008 mb LOW in the BOC.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

[BigA]

18Z NAM: slowly moves NNW/North, centered SSE of Brownsville in 84 hours, moving slowly north.

Unlike 12Z, NAM doesn't bury it into Mexico.

[petit_bois]

We have some very saturated ground here in the Northern GOM.
No need to add insult to injury...

[MGC]

Noticed a bit of spin on the visable loop. Might be a quick developer......MGC

[Aric Dunn]

Noticed a bit of spin on the visable loop. Might be a quick developer......MGC

oh there has been a circ down there for the last 18 hours or so.. its just a matter of convection at this point..

[Pearl River]

This afternoons AFD from Slidell:

000
FXUS64 KLIX 062001
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
301 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2011

.SHORT TERM...
UNUSUALLY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL CENTERED OVER TENNESSEE WILL BE PULLED NORTH
TOWARDS OHIO THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS MEANS THAT A DRY ZONAL FLOW
WILL DOMINATE THE GULF COAST REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS
SEEMS THE BE THE SCENARIO INDICATED BY MOST OF THE NUMERICAL
MODELS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

ALL OF THE MODELS SEEM TO WANT TOO DEVELOP A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF. THAT IS WHEN THERE IS A MAJOR DEPARTURE
BECOMES EVIDENT. IN ONE CORNER THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS FORECASTING A
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AT THE
OPPOSITE END OF THE RING THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP THE
SYSTEM BOTTLED UP IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND EVENTUALLY PUSH IT
WEST INTO MEXICO. THREE THINGS ARE IMPORTANT HERE. ONE...IS HOW
QUICKLY WILL THE SYSTEM DEVELOP? TWO...IF DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WILL
THE SYSTEM BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF
LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S? THREE...IF DEVELOPMENT IS WEAK...THEN
SYSTEM WILL DRIFT WEST AND REMAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF? BOTTOM
LINE IS THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON THIS ONE.