ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

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KWT
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#61 Postby KWT » Tue Sep 06, 2011 5:25 pm

Totally different runs from the global models it has to be said!!
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Re:

#62 Postby KWT » Tue Sep 06, 2011 5:27 pm

rockyman wrote:Interesting that 96L falls apart BEFORE landfall on the Mexican coast


Abit like Karl last year, though to be fair it didn't totally implode, just weakened.

Not sure which run is the better, my gut would be closer to the GFS then the ECM though...
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#63 Postby KWT » Tue Sep 06, 2011 5:35 pm

The funny thing is MGC most storms in this area tend to track either WNW/W...very few actually head north or NNE/NE...maybe 5-10%.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#64 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 06, 2011 5:36 pm

looks all midlevel to me right now....interesting NAM run for those who need rain so bad...all the others runs are NE or bury it in MX.....I aint placing any bets yet at either spot....
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Re:

#65 Postby hipshot » Tue Sep 06, 2011 5:38 pm

Jevo wrote:18z GFS +48

Image

18z GFS +72

Image


Are we even looking at the same storm??
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#66 Postby psyclone » Tue Sep 06, 2011 5:38 pm

MGC wrote:Sept and Oct BOC storms for the most part move to the NNE to NE....I believe this will be a north GOM threat most likely...MGC

Of course the above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

not according to the graphic posted on the prior page. the boc seems like a tc black hole...not much escapes.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#67 Postby HurricaneBelle » Tue Sep 06, 2011 5:51 pm

As far as track goes (not necessarily intensity), this looks to be either Opal or Roxanne redux depending on which model you want to put stock in.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#68 Postby Nimbus » Tue Sep 06, 2011 5:51 pm

Looks like the end of a front at the moment. Is there any evidence of a low level circulation yet?
Some of these travel NE up the weakness or front that they developed from as a sloppy poorly organized mess. On the other hand if they close off and the weakness is replaced by ridging to the north than even a NW or W turn in the track is possible.
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#69 Postby KWT » Tue Sep 06, 2011 5:55 pm

Its a tough call because there probably will be a weakness for a time, system is going to have to travel quite quickly though from the looks of things if its not to get trapped in the BoC like the GFS suggests.
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#70 Postby KWT » Tue Sep 06, 2011 6:03 pm

FWIW ECM shows a slightly lopsided pattern to the system, looks like the dry air keeps the strongest rains on the southern flank of the system, which makes quite alot of sense actually.

Can't believe this could be TD15...and we aren't even at the 10th yet!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#71 Postby Frank P » Tue Sep 06, 2011 6:05 pm

After tapering off somewhat this afternoon, looks like the convection is back on the rise somewhat in the BOC this evening... definitely has a twist going on but probably at the mid levels attm...
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#72 Postby KWT » Tue Sep 06, 2011 6:08 pm

Yeah i'd be surprised if it is at the surface just yet.

Models suggests the main strengthening is still a solid 48-60hrs away yet.
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#73 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Sep 06, 2011 6:15 pm

Definite circulation on visible, just no way of knowing without Recon in there if it is at the surface. We can watch this buoy, but otherwise I believe if convection takes off tonight Recon finds a Tropical Storm come tomorrow with the pressure gradient.


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#74 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 06, 2011 6:21 pm

now that is some dry air over Texas.....figures since we havent seen significant rains...96L going to have a hard time digesting this....


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html
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#75 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Sep 06, 2011 6:24 pm

I just don't see this low sitting down there for a week, GFS is out to lunch IMO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#76 Postby clfenwi » Tue Sep 06, 2011 6:31 pm

HWRF's first stab it it. Kind of a wishy-washy course that ends with it in the middle of the western Gulf of Mexico.
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 6

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -93.50 LAT: 20.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 27.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -93.50 LAT: 19.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 31.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -93.50 LAT: 19.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -93.40 LAT: 19.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -93.10 LAT: 19.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 47.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -92.80 LAT: 19.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -92.60 LAT: 19.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -92.60 LAT: 19.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -92.70 LAT: 19.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -92.60 LAT: 20.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 56.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -92.50 LAT: 20.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 46.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -92.30 LAT: 20.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 44.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -92.40 LAT: 21.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -92.40 LAT: 21.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -92.60 LAT: 21.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -92.90 LAT: 22.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 995.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -93.20 LAT: 22.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 987.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 47.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -93.40 LAT: 23.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 979.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -93.80 LAT: 23.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 970.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 70.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -93.90 LAT: 23.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 77.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -94.30 LAT: 23.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 964.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 78.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -94.60 LAT: 23.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 965.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 82.00
FORECAST RAN UNCOUPLED

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


Wind swath
Image

Loop
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Re:

#77 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Sep 06, 2011 6:32 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Definite circulation on visible, just no way of knowing without Recon in there if it is at the surface. We can watch this buoy, but otherwise I believe if convection takes off tonight Recon finds a Tropical Storm come tomorrow with the pressure gradient.


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055


HPC surface analysis back during 19Z depicted a pressure already at 1008 mb down in the BOC. I posted that in this thread earlier.

Dean4Storms, thanks for posting the link with the buoy data. That will be interesting to watch tonight as we wait for Recon to get in there tomorrow. I also agree that if we get a good convective burst later tonight down there, I think it stands to reason that we could find a TS developing possibly in the next 12-24 hours.

Also, yes there is a ton of dry air in and around the GOM which will be an issue possibly later in the week. But, at least in the formative stage, 96L has an excellent south and southwest inflow from the Eastern Pacific to help get the system kick started in the short term.
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#78 Postby Nimbus » Tue Sep 06, 2011 6:41 pm

There is some fairly low cloud motion centered near 20.3N 93.5W so it probably is at the surface.
The air just north of the BOC is so dry if this moves very fast its going to have to bring its own moisture.
Recon will probably find a low level circulation i'm basing that on what I could see in the last few visible shots where you could see down through the higher cloud tops.
Last edited by Nimbus on Tue Sep 06, 2011 7:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#79 Postby sandwichpick » Tue Sep 06, 2011 6:42 pm

We had 6.8 inches of rain from Lee here at my crib in Central LA. We needed every bit of it. Here's hoping the NAM somehow comes to fruition and fills those cracks in Texas with a similar dumping! Oh, and in my lurkers opinion, I see this thing getting caught up in the mid level trough and pulling in a northerly direction in some form. The jury is definitely out. We shall see!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#80 Postby clfenwi » Tue Sep 06, 2011 6:51 pm

18Z GFDL. Posted for comprehensiveness' sake and nothing else. Final position is fairly well into the Pacific.

HOUR: .0 LONG: -93.27 LAT: 20.71 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.37 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 26.63
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -93.63 LAT: 19.93 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.86 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 30.36
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -93.73 LAT: 19.33 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.69 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 33.74
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -93.63 LAT: 19.05 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.34 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.94
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -93.37 LAT: 18.89 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.04 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.47
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -93.03 LAT: 18.81 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.44 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.29
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -92.81 LAT: 18.72 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.19 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 34.56
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -92.90 LAT: 18.57 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.56 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 32.13
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -92.79 LAT: 18.43 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.19 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.07
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -92.75 LAT: 18.12 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.83 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.07
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -92.72 LAT: 17.98 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.38 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.58
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -93.14 LAT: 18.07 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.74 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.31
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -93.60 LAT: 17.86 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.71 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.74
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -94.12 LAT: 17.23 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.96 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.74
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -94.58 LAT: 16.25 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.77 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 50.47
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -94.73 LAT: 15.54 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.55 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 37.79
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -94.78 LAT: 15.05 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.64 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 32.13
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -94.98 LAT: 14.83 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.85 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 32.45
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -95.02 LAT: 14.68 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.02 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.99
-99.9 -99.90 -99.90
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