WPAC: ROKE - Post-Tropical (18W)

[RobWESTPACWX]

Starting to get a little chill up my spine right now due to the organization of this storm right now.

[euro6208]

this is from jtwc:

ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TY 18W HAS WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY AS EVIDENCED BY WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASING EYE DIAMETER, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED NEAR
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS REMAINED WELL
ORGANIZED IN A 200444Z AMSR-E IMAGE.

why oh why? his eye is so clear and gotten more clear...




the most organized high end category 2 ever!

That makes Cat2 Irene look like a TS. It really has the looks of a major one, if it's not more than 115kts.

i think irene peaked at category 3 with 115 mph but still roke is more organized than her. i remember katia when she reached category 4. honestly that was one of the poorest cat 4 i've ever seen with an eye that was open and not well circular eye.



this was katia when she reach cat 4


but roke! god, if that was a cat 4 then what is roke?

[Chacor]

Sorry, no cloud tops colder than -80°C. I don't think it weakened, but it hasn't strengthened that much either. Convection isn't deep enough to warrant 115 kt+.

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 927.2mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.5 6.5

Weakening Flag : OFF

continues its strong organization ....124 to 125 knots 1 minute winds!!

[RobWESTPACWX]

1.3 Million people evacuated in Nagoya city now.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Up to 95kts from JMA now. Serious storm!!

Look forward to JTWC explaining themselves...

[RobWESTPACWX]

Took about two hours to upload but put a lot of info in to it. Also give storm2k a good shout out.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBIwNTR2yy8[/youtube]

[Typhoon Hunter]

Sorry, no cloud tops colder than -80°C. I don't think it weakened, but it hasn't strengthened that much either. Convection isn't deep enough to warrant 115 kt+.

T6.0 from PGTW and KNES would support a cat 4. no? Can't remember the scale off the top of my head. Regardless it's a very strong system and a huge threat to those in its path, thoughts are with them!

[RobWESTPACWX]

Sorry, no cloud tops colder than -80°C. I don't think it weakened, but it hasn't strengthened that much either. Convection isn't deep enough to warrant 115 kt+.

T6.0 from PGTW and KNES would support a cat 4. no? Can't remember the scale off the top of my head. Regardless it's a very strong system and a huge threat to those in its path, thoughts are with them!

6.0 or 115kt winds should have a pressure of 930hpa and yes, it would be a Cat 4, scary.. Rains picking up again here yet winds are scarily subtle right now.

[Typhoon Hunter]

You stay safe too Rob. Doing a sterling job with your video updates! Will do some pimping of them on Twitter now!

[euro6208]

looks like jtwc in the next warning will increase the intensity to 110 knots category 3 winds. we'll see

they are so conservative, do they have eyes?



CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 924.1mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.4 6.4

[RobWESTPACWX]

Sounds good, hopefully here in the near future I'll be on TV doing them. Thanks for spreading them though, its always tough for people who can't speak good Japanese here in Japan to get information on the weather.

[RobWESTPACWX]

But James kind of disappointed you didn't get out to Nagoya or up near the Coast here?

[Typhoon Hunter]

But James kind of disappointed you didn't get out to Nagoya or up near the Coast here?

The joy of hindsight, wish I was there lol! No-one forecast it to be of this strength and with the track uncertainty it didn't make sense to travel yesterday. If it was Taiwan I'd have been there but Japan (where average trip to cover such events run at over $1500 US) is just too expensive of a gamble. And given it's angle of attack on coast it makes it even harder to intercept eye since one wobble north or south means having to relocated 100kms+ to get to the sweet spot!

Besides ECM hinting at some mayhem more locally next week plus I have a volcano to film in Kagoshima over the weekend

[Infdidoll]

Well, this is a good one to show whomever was saying Okinawa and above do not get strong typhoons... I just hope mainland is prepared for this one. This has bad news written all over it.

The short time this thing bombed in was extremely impressive! Here I was expecting it to fizzle out as it sat there and spun its wheels by Okinawa for days. Once it got on the move, it blossomed.

[dexterlabio]

That makes Cat2 Irene look like a TS. It really has the looks of a major one, if it's not more than 115kts.

i think irene peaked at category 3 with 115 mph but still roke is more organized than her. i remember katia when she reached category 4. honestly that was one of the poorest cat 4 i've ever seen with an eye that was open and not well circular eye.



this was katia when she reach cat 4


but roke! god, if that was a cat 4 then what is roke?

Yeah what I meant is when Irene was first upgraded to a Cat2 hurricane.

So JTWC actually increased intensity to 115kts, meaning a Cat4 system now, no?

WTPN31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 18W (ROKE) WARNING NR 037
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 30.3N 133.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.3N 133.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 33.1N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 37.2N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 42.1N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 31.0N 134.4E.
TYPHOON 18W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 19W (SONCA) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW).//
NNNN

[CrazyC83]

115 kt seems reasonable to me being a blend of all the data.

How often do intense typhoons hit the most populated parts of Japan?

[Macrocane]

Fianally a fair estimation of Roke's intensity, I think it's not that common to see such a strong typhoon so far north, at least not in recent years, is it?

[Typhoon Hunter]

Looks like deepest convection is starting to fragment now per colour sat imagery on CWB website. Really hope this is start of a weakening trend and it continues rapidly. Going to be an interesting day tomorrow watching it come ashore!

[CrazyC83]

Fianally a fair estimation of Roke's intensity, I think it's not that common to see such a strong typhoon so far north, at least not in recent years, is it?

Not really but it does happen. Just like in the Atlantic majors aren't that common north of 30N but they do happen. A Cat 3 into Tokyo would be just frightening...