WPAC: ROKE - Post-Tropical (18W)

[StormingB81]

Located near 20.7N and 149.2E

I did not see a topic for this yet...ECMWF has this camping over Okinawa

From JTWC:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.7N 149.2E, 520
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSON AFB, GUAM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
ANIMATED INFARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS
IMPROVING OUTFLOW OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED, FLARING CONVECTION. A 07/2212Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATES SOME CURVED INFLOW INTO THE LLCC
WITH MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS
CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW WITH SOME WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOT) WESTERLIES
FLOWING INTO A CLEARLY DEFINED, ELONGATED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES DIRECTLY BENEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIVERGENCE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Typhoon Hunter]

This is the one you might really have to keep an eye on. Let's see how ECMWF evolves over the next few days and if a trend emerges of it coming towards you!

[StormingB81]

Upgraded to Medium:

) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.7N
149.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 148.7E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSON AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
ASSOCIATED WITH UNORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. A 080105Z TRMM
MICROWAVE IMAGE STILL SHOWS AN ORGANIZED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY, A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS
ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[StormingB81]

What a difference 12 hours make..however still a week away gonna be fun watching it

[RobWESTPACWX]

This one looks to be gaining strength, wouldn't be surprised in the least bit if it develops.

[Chacor]

JMA 6z
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 19N 149E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[StormingB81]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 19N 148E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[StormingB81]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 20N 147E WNW 10 KT

[Chacor]

Waiting to see if we'll get our 21st warned tropical depression (JMA) of the season.

[euro6208]

euro has this possibly as a weak tropical storm sitting on top of okinawa for days without much movement...

[dexterlabio]

Euro 12z run

Multi-model

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 100300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100300UTC 20.0N 141.5E POOR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 110300UTC 20.7N 137.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

21st warned TD of the year.

[StormingB81]

ECMWF shows it camping over Okinawa for a few days

[StormingB81]

Well now that I finally have a little bit of time...I went up to this camping site last night...anyways I figured I would come abck and see atleast a tropical depression.....I guess we will keep on watching it

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101200UTC 20.2N 140.4E POOR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 111200UTC 21.2N 136.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[Chacor]

[StormingB81]

TCFA Issued:

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.1N 139.7E TO 23.0N 132.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
102000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N
137.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.2N
141.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 137.9E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A LARGE MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH DISORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION FLARING AROUND THE PERIPHERY. HOWEVER, A 101616Z
AMSR-E IMAGE INDICATES THAT A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING WITHIN THE LARGER CIRCULATION WITH
IMPROVED LOW-LEVEL BANDING EVIDENT, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. A 101448Z OCEANSAT IMAGE SHOWS 15-20 KNOT WINDS NEAR
THE CENTER WITH STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MONSOON DEPRESSION. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
112030Z.//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

[euro6208]

TXPQ29 KNES 102123
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)

B. 10/2101Z

C. 20.8N

D. 137.4E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS/AMSRE/AMSU

H. REMARKS...DT=1.5 BASED ON .2+ BANDING ON LOG10 SPIRAL. PT=1.5. MET=1.5
FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

10/1616Z 21.0N 138.2E AMSRE
10/1657Z 21.0N 137.9E AMSU


...SCHWARTZ




latest forecast from euro has this tc hitting okinawa 2 times, 1 from the east and 1 from the west..

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110000UTC 20.6N 138.8E POOR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 120000UTC 21.3N 134.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =