WPAC: ROKE - Post-Tropical (18W)

HurricaneBill · #281 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Mon Sep 19, 2011 10:22 pm

I think Typhoon Wayne of 1986 takes the cake in terms of "drunken" storms.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlTz2rAmFwc[/youtube]

phwxenthusiast · #282 Postby **phwxenthusiast** » Mon Sep 19, 2011 10:57 pm

hope they upgrade this to Cat 4 by 02 UTC... looks sooooo beautiful!! Dvorak at 6.0 from NOAA SSD

#283 Postby **RobWESTPACWX** » Mon Sep 19, 2011 11:20 pm

I hope it rapidly weakens here in the next 12 hrs, given the current track this is going to be a major threat to SE Japan, that is something to take very seriously at this time.

MY most recent video on this including rain totals radar imagery and a general outlook.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZaGlA6NgvIg[/youtube]

storm4u · #284 Postby **storm4u** » Tue Sep 20, 2011 12:18 am

Looking better and better by the minute! WOW

#285 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Tue Sep 20, 2011 12:29 am

Great video as always Rob! This one is going to bring you some rough weather!

Chacor · #286 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Sep 20, 2011 3:20 am

80kt at 6z.

WTPQ21 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1115 ROKE (1115)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200600UTC 29.3N 132.3E GOOD
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 280NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 210600UTC 34.6N 136.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 220600UTC 45.0N 147.1E 210NM 70%
MOVE NNE 33KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 230600UTC 50.8N 159.1E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

#287 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Tue Sep 20, 2011 3:50 am

Tornado in Nagoya prefecture earlier today?

http://twitpic.com/6nofaq

JMA did have a level 2 warning out at one point!

#288 Postby **RobWESTPACWX** » Tue Sep 20, 2011 3:52 am

Typhoon Hunter wrote:Great video as always Rob! This one is going to bring you some rough weather!

I hope not to rough, I think it should get tore up a lot by the time it gets here, but yes we are getting ready.

Also down south of me though up to 1.3 million people have be advised to evacuate due Roke, Also some lakes formed by landslides SE of Osaka on the verge of breaking, it is a very dangerous situation.

phwxenthusiast · #289 Postby **phwxenthusiast** » Tue Sep 20, 2011 4:16 am

Typhoon Hunter wrote:Tornado in Nagoya prefecture earlier today?

http://twitpic.com/6nofaq

JMA did have a level 2 warning out at one point!

Yup right over Nagoya about an hour ago, last time i checked... there was an extremely strong band with level 2 tornado warnings and level 4 thunder activity... i'm not surprised one touched-down although it's not as rain-wrapped as i would have thought...

thanks for sharing!!

euro6208 · #290 Postby **euro6208** » Tue Sep 20, 2011 4:23 am

wow! gone for over 12 hours and found this?!?

looks to me like a category 4

TXPQ29 KNES 200904
TCSWNP

A. 18W (ROKE)

B. 20/0832Z

C. 29.8N

D. 133.0E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS :eek:

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=6.0 BASED ON LG RING(BL NOT THICK ENOUGH) WITH WMG EYE
SURROUNDED BY BL. PT=6.0. MET=6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

...SCHWARTZ

also supporting category 4 and still increasing!

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 927.4mb/124.6kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.4 6.4

in my guamanian eyes, this looks to me like a 130 knot SUPERTYPHOON! and im still being conservative ! :wink:

phwxenthusiast · #291 Postby **phwxenthusiast** » Tue Sep 20, 2011 4:23 am

okay my only qualm right now with JTWC is decreasing speed from 100kts to 95kts... looking at the past two MWI from AMSRE and SSMIS, respectively, one can see that the eyewall has actually shrunk a little bit and has also become much more organized... a VIS loop kinda supports my find... you can also see another band trying to form--we could see an EWRC before it makes landfall tomorrow... convection remains good as well!!

then again, they're the meteorologist not me lol

euro6208 · #292 Postby **euro6208** » Tue Sep 20, 2011 4:28 am

phwxenthusiast wrote:okay my only qualm right now with JTWC is decreasing speed from 100kts to 95kts... looking at the past two MWI from AMSRE and SSMIS, respectively, one can see that the eyewall has actually shrunk a little bit and has also become much more organized... a VIS loop kinda supports my find... you can also see another band trying to form--we could see an EWRC before it makes landfall tomorrow... convection remains good as well!!

then again, they're the meteorologist not me lol

a 5 knots decrease by jtwc is so irritating. you are right, this has become better organized and the eye on both infrared and visible got more clear and clear.

#293 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Tue Sep 20, 2011 4:30 am

And JTWC weaken it by 5kts to 95kts.... :roll:

EDIT: Lol we all post at same time. Just seen multi sens on NRL and agree totally with Pat and Euro!

euro6208 · #294 Postby **euro6208** » Tue Sep 20, 2011 4:31 am

what impresses me is that both sonca and roke both became strong typhoons very far north and near japan.

KWT · #295 Postby **KWT** » Tue Sep 20, 2011 4:33 am

Very impressive I have to admit, presentation has only gotten better and better recently!

#296 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Tue Sep 20, 2011 4:35 am

KWT wrote:Very impressive I have to admit, presentation has only gotten better and better recently!

Exactly! Even JMA upped Roke to 80kts at 06z. Think our friends at JTWC spent the morning shooting pool and supping margaritas on Waikiki beach!

KWT · #297 Postby **KWT** » Tue Sep 20, 2011 4:37 am

Yeah I've not got a clue why they would weaken it to 95kts, abit odd if you ask me!

euro6208 · #298 Postby **euro6208** » Tue Sep 20, 2011 4:40 am

i hope roke maintains his strength until the next warning or even strengthens further so that jtwc can at least increase the winds to possible category 4. if this weakens then say bye bye to roke's maximum peak intensity...underestimated again!

euro6208 · #299 Postby **euro6208** » Tue Sep 20, 2011 4:42 am

KWT wrote:Yeah I've not got a clue why they would weaken it to 95kts, abit odd if you ask me!

this is from jtwc:

ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TY 18W HAS WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY AS EVIDENCED BY WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASING EYE DIAMETER, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED NEAR
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS REMAINED WELL
ORGANIZED IN A 200444Z AMSR-E IMAGE.

why oh why? his eye is so clear and gotten more clear...

the most organized high end category 2 ever! :roll:

dexterlabio · #300 Postby **dexterlabio** » Tue Sep 20, 2011 5:00 am

euro6208 wrote:
this is from jtwc:

ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TY 18W HAS WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY AS EVIDENCED BY WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASING EYE DIAMETER, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED NEAR
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS REMAINED WELL
ORGANIZED IN A 200444Z AMSR-E IMAGE.

why oh why? his eye is so clear and gotten more clear...

the most organized high end category 2 ever!

That makes Cat2 Irene look like a TS. It really has the looks of a major one, if it's not more than 115kts.

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