EPAC: INVEST 94E

[RL3AO]

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invest_ep942011.invest
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201109101533
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INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 94, 2011, DB, O, 2011091012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP942011
EP, 94, 2011091012, , BEST, 0, 157N, 1180W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[RL3AO]

1. UPDATED...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE IT MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD COOLER WATERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

The models are not keen to this invest.

WHXX01 KMIA 101542
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1542 UTC SAT SEP 10 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942011) 20110910 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110910 1200 110911 0000 110911 1200 110912 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.7N 118.0W 16.6N 118.4W 17.3N 118.9W 17.8N 119.6W
BAMD 15.7N 118.0W 17.0N 118.7W 18.5N 119.3W 20.0N 119.6W
BAMM 15.7N 118.0W 17.0N 118.4W 18.2N 118.9W 19.3N 119.4W
LBAR 15.7N 118.0W 16.5N 118.4W 17.9N 118.5W 19.4N 118.7W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 23KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 23KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110912 1200 110913 1200 110914 1200 110915 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.1N 120.3W 18.7N 122.7W 19.1N 125.1W 19.1N 127.3W
BAMD 21.6N 119.8W 25.4N 118.0W 30.4N 110.4W 35.8N 99.2W
BAMM 20.1N 119.9W 21.7N 121.4W 22.4N 122.4W 22.5N 122.8W
LBAR 21.4N 119.3W 26.4N 120.0W 31.0N 116.2W 34.7N 106.3W
SHIP 18KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 18KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.7N LONCUR = 118.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 15.4N LONM12 = 117.5W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 15.3N LONM24 = 117.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Extratropical94]

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TOWARD COOLER WATERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.