EPAC: INVEST 95E

[RL3AO]

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invest_ep952011.invest
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040
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201109101605
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
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EP, 95, 2011091012, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1319W, 25, 1008, DB

[RL3AO]

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1550 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

Another invest that models are not enthusiastic.

WHXX01 KMIA 101608
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1608 UTC SAT SEP 10 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP952011) 20110910 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110910 1200 110911 0000 110911 1200 110912 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.3N 131.9W 13.3N 132.4W 13.2N 133.1W 12.9N 134.1W
BAMD 13.3N 131.9W 13.4N 132.5W 13.5N 132.9W 13.6N 133.4W
BAMM 13.3N 131.9W 13.4N 132.4W 13.3N 132.9W 13.1N 133.5W
LBAR 13.3N 131.9W 13.4N 132.4W 14.0N 132.9W 14.7N 133.2W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 28KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110912 1200 110913 1200 110914 1200 110915 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 135.5W 12.0N 139.3W 12.1N 144.1W 12.2N 148.6W
BAMD 13.8N 134.0W 14.7N 136.2W 16.3N 138.5W 17.3N 139.8W
BAMM 13.0N 134.3W 13.0N 136.8W 14.0N 139.7W 15.0N 142.1W
LBAR 15.4N 133.8W 17.5N 135.5W 20.2N 137.6W 21.6N 139.3W
SHIP 28KTS 27KTS 23KTS 19KTS
DSHP 28KTS 27KTS 23KTS 19KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 131.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 131.2W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 130.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM