WPAC: INVEST 95W

[Extratropical94]

Seems like this one hasn't been posted here.
Trapped in Roke's outflow...

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.0N
122.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 123.6E, APPROXIMATELY 246 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED
IN THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH CONVECTION WANING DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE 150000Z UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS AN
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TOP OF THE LLCC. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
ESTIMATED AT 10-15 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION
ARE 31 DEGREES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS STRONG
SUPPRESSION OF OUTFLOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

JMA 12Z: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 20N 125E EAST SLOWLY.

IR:


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[Extratropical94]

JMA dropped it completely,
JTWC upped it to medium.

[phwxenthusiast]

lol what?!?!

[Extratropical94]

Code: Select all

WARNING AND SUMMARY 160600.
WARNING VALID 170600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 39N 142E 42N 142E
46N 153E 56N 164E 55N 170E 55N 180E 40N 180E 40N 174E 45N 174E 39N
155E 39N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 50N 148E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 996 HPA AT 58N 177E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 40N 162E EAST 10 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 35N 120E TO 37N 125E 40N 129E 42N 134E 44N 145E
44N 151E.
COLD FRONT FROM 41N 180E TO 39N 176E 36N 170E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1115 ROKE (1115) 985 HPA AT 26.4N 129.9E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1116 SONCA (1116) 1000 HPA AT 23.1N 151.5E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

JMA not mentioning it anywhere at 06Z.

JTWC 06Z - at low again:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.2N
124.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 128.7E, APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN. [...]
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

[Chacor]

From where did the number 29 come from? The JMA only numbers warned TDs (in the marine warning with WARNING), I believe Sonca would have been the 22nd.

[Extratropical94]

Well, it is basically the 29th depression that appeared on JMA's weather map. Officially this would be the one after #22, you're right.
I guess I should only put TD in the title as the 29 is irritating.