ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201109170000
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2011, DB, O, 2011091618, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972011
AL, 97, 2011091600, , BEST, 0, 93N, 133W, 15, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011091606, , BEST, 0, 97N, 153W, 15, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011091612, , BEST, 0, 100N, 173W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011091618, , BEST, 0, 104N, 192W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011091700, , BEST, 0, 107N, 210W, 20, 1009, LO


Thread of Pouch 29L that was the topic at Talking Tropics forum.

posting.php?mode=reply&f=31&t=111905

[Gustywind]

Here we are...

[OURAGAN]

JB was right, he forecasted this system off the coast of Africa 4 days ago.

[cycloneye]

This is the 8 PM EDT TWO.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[AnnularCane]

So much for the lull...maybe.

[cycloneye]

Here we are...

Well Gusty,is early to say for sure if is going to enter the Eastern Caribbean. The best thing to do for now is to watch the progress of it.

[Gustywind]

Here we are...

Well Gusty,is early to say for sure if is going to enter the Eastern Caribbean. The best thing to do for now is to watch the progress of it.

You're right Cycloneye , keeping an eye is always the best way to monitor an invest as we're always in the peak of the season. Let's wait and see what could happens during the next couple of days.

[CrazyC83]

Needs to stay REALLY low to develop. Shear is low around 10N but increases rapidly near 14N.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Caribwxgirl]

So the watch and model casting begins eh?

[fci]

Didn't need a break anyway with Maria gone....

[HurricaneWarning92]

At least we got something to track.

[AJC3]

JB was right, he forecasted this system off the coast of Africa 4 days ago.

Where is this forecast of JB's? Moreover, it's an invest, not a TC, so you really can't say he was right or wrong about anything yet...that is unless he forecast 4 days ago that an invest would be declared today.

[Blown Away]

TAFB has 97L moving just N of W in 72 hours.

IMO CONUS dodges 97L we won't see anymore CV threats for 2011 and then we have to start watching the NW Caribbean.

[jinftl]

Agree...and area of convection moving off the coast of africa in september...that is a no-brainer forecast....as of now this only has been given a 20% shot of developing into a system with advisories in the next 48 hours. And if it develops in the next 48 hours, it is almost certain to be a fish. Storms that have developed within 150 miles of where 97L is right now during the month of September have never made it to the u.s. and only 2 have impacted the islands as a tropical depression (color key for map: blue - td, green - tropical/subtrop storm, yellow - cat 1, orange - cat 2, red - cat 3)



Now if this could hold off developing until 45W or 50W, then the threat to the islands and u.s. increases significantly based on historical tracks.

JB was right, he forecasted this system off the coast of Africa 4 days ago.

Where is this forecast of JB's? Moreover, it's an invest, not a TC, so you really can't say he was right or wrong about anything yet...that is unless he forecast 4 days ago that an invest would be declared today.

[CrazyC83]

Any northward movement and this gets destroyed by wind shear. Only chance of development is a low rider.

[fci]

JB was right, he forecasted this system off the coast of Africa 4 days ago.

Where is this forecast of JB's? Moreover, it's an invest, not a TC, so you really can't say he was right or wrong about anything yet...that is unless he forecast 4 days ago that an invest would be declared today.

LOL
JB also said that Katia was going to threaten the East Coast and his followers were crowing about it when some models showed that for a while.
Then the silence was deafening...........
I am not trashing JB, he is a scientist like you are and so I respect his knowledge.
But we all know he is also part entertainer and likes the publicity so he becomes an easy target especially since when he is correct his fan club is all over it and when he is wrong.....
Ah, the fun of the Hurricane Season!!!

[cycloneye]

The 2 AM TWO was not posted? Well,I guess all the members went to bed.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE LOW THIS MORNING...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Nimbus]

Its nice we have climo telling us it will be a fish, and the persistent TUTT off the east coast should reenforce that idea. Wonder if any models will have this west of 70 if it stays weak?

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 170611
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1012 MB LOW IS SSE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 10N21W. THE
LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND HAS BECOME
SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW CENTER
FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 20W-25W. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WWD AT 10-15 KT.

[djones65]

Looking at visible imagery early this morning it seems like once again there is a very complicated situation. The most apparent low level circulation is well west of 97L's position, and I don't see any low level inflow or even cumulus clouds curing into the estimated center at 10.8 and 21.3. Where I see the circulation most defined is well west of that longitude near 10.5N and 31.0W. There may be some weak turning southeast of the deepest convection near 9N and 19W but I don't believe that is 97L either. I am somewhat confused, but didn't the GFS model suggest development of a low out ahead of pouch 29 I.e. 97L and AJC 3 said he thought the entire mess was part of a very broad low pressure area? In any event in my opinion, development, if any, will be extremely slow which will increase any potential risk to the Caribbean islands and in addition if anything ramps up, it is most likely to be about 550 miles west of where 97L is estimated as of 0600UTC. It appears the monsoon trough may have multiple circulations and the one that the NHC was monitoring yesterday seems to have become less organized in my opinion. This will be a slow developer I think, and the probabilities of development may go back down to 20% later today. What do you all think?
Of course, these are only my personal opinions and do not represent anything official. Please always listen and be advised by official products from the NHC and/or your local national weather service offices.