ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139087
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 16, 2011 7:07 pm

Code: Select all

024
WHXX01 KWBC 170004
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0004 UTC SAT SEP 17 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972011) 20110917 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110917  0000   110917  1200   110918  0000   110918  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.7N  21.0W   11.2N  22.8W   11.5N  25.0W   11.9N  27.7W
BAMD    10.7N  21.0W   11.0N  22.8W   11.2N  24.8W   11.3N  26.7W
BAMM    10.7N  21.0W   11.2N  22.7W   11.6N  24.7W   11.7N  27.0W
LBAR    10.7N  21.0W   11.5N  23.8W   12.5N  26.9W   13.4N  30.0W
SHIP        20KTS          26KTS          34KTS          41KTS
DSHP        20KTS          26KTS          34KTS          41KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110919  0000   110920  0000   110921  0000   110922  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.8N  31.1W   15.3N  39.2W   18.3N  47.0W   21.0N  52.8W
BAMD    11.7N  28.7W   14.2N  33.2W   17.1N  38.1W   18.9N  41.6W
BAMM    12.2N  29.8W   14.2N  36.2W   15.7N  43.1W   15.6N  50.0W
LBAR    14.6N  32.9W   18.3N  37.8W   23.8N  38.8W   29.4N  38.2W
SHIP        45KTS          45KTS          38KTS          38KTS
DSHP        45KTS          45KTS          38KTS          38KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.7N LONCUR =  21.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =  10.0N LONM12 =  17.3W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 =  20KT
LATM24 =   9.3N LONM24 =  13.3W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Caribwxgirl
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 287
Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2011 7:25 pm
Location: Budapest, Hungary (from Kingston, Jamaica)

#2 Postby Caribwxgirl » Fri Sep 16, 2011 8:37 pm

Are these the latest models?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139087
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re:

#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 16, 2011 8:40 pm

Caribwxgirl wrote:Are these the latest models?


Yes,the first run by the tropical models. Now we wait for the first run by GFDL and HWRF after midnight EDT. Then come the global models like GFS and ECMWF among that group.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Caribwxgirl
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 287
Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2011 7:25 pm
Location: Budapest, Hungary (from Kingston, Jamaica)

#4 Postby Caribwxgirl » Fri Sep 16, 2011 8:50 pm

Ok thanks I'll look out for those. Hopefully it won't head your way.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139087
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#5 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 16, 2011 11:33 pm

00z GFS has a low rider at 144 hours,but without much development so far.

Image

Saved image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139087
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#6 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 16, 2011 11:45 pm

At 192 hours is almost on the coast of Venezuela,but developing a little bit. From now is fantasyland. :)

Image

Saved image.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Caribwxgirl
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 287
Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2011 7:25 pm
Location: Budapest, Hungary (from Kingston, Jamaica)

#7 Postby Caribwxgirl » Sat Sep 17, 2011 5:14 am

What's that other low I see in the graphic that seems to be headed north?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Extratropical94
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3535
Age: 29
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany
Contact:
Contact Extratropical94

#8 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Sep 17, 2011 5:25 am

I was wondering the same, a tropical storm that far north would be killed by shear in one second basically.

Tropical Models from 06Z

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 170539

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0539 UTC SAT SEP 17 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972011) 20110917 0600 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110917  0600   110917  1800   110918  0600   110918  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.8N  21.3W   11.0N  23.4W   11.1N  25.7W   11.3N  28.6W
BAMD    10.8N  21.3W   11.0N  23.4W   11.1N  25.4W   11.2N  27.4W
BAMM    10.8N  21.3W   11.1N  23.3W   11.0N  25.5W   10.9N  28.0W
LBAR    10.8N  21.3W   11.3N  23.5W   11.8N  25.8W   12.3N  28.6W
SHIP        20KTS          24KTS          30KTS          35KTS
DSHP        20KTS          24KTS          30KTS          35KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110919  0600   110920  0600   110921  0600   110922  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.2N  31.8W   14.3N  40.1W   16.1N  48.8W   17.5N  56.6W
BAMD    11.6N  29.7W   14.0N  34.7W   16.5N  40.0W   18.3N  44.0W
BAMM    11.2N  30.9W   12.9N  37.2W   13.7N  44.6W   12.9N  52.2W
LBAR    12.8N  31.5W   14.8N  37.1W   17.1N  41.8W   15.1N  45.1W
SHIP        39KTS          42KTS          36KTS          36KTS
DSHP        39KTS          42KTS          36KTS          36KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.8N LONCUR =  21.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =  10.4N LONM12 =  19.2W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =   9.7N LONM24 =  15.3W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139087
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 17, 2011 5:35 am

The 00z ECMWF develops 97L and moves it towards the northern Leewards at 168 hours. After that,it vanishes.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
jinftl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4312
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:47 pm
Location: fort lauderdale, fl

Re:

#10 Postby jinftl » Sat Sep 17, 2011 6:37 am

Those models that show modest development (some models show no development) also show this fizzling out once you go beyond 72 hours...

Image

Extratropical94 wrote:I was wondering the same, a tropical storm that far north would be killed by shear in one second basically.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139087
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 17, 2011 7:52 am

12z Tropical Models.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 171235
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1235 UTC SAT SEP 17 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972011) 20110917 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110917  1200   110918  0000   110918  1200   110919  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.3N  20.0W   10.7N  22.0W   10.8N  24.7W   11.1N  28.1W
BAMD    10.3N  20.0W   10.4N  22.2W   10.3N  24.4W   10.1N  26.6W
BAMM    10.3N  20.0W   10.5N  22.1W   10.5N  24.6W   10.5N  27.5W
LBAR    10.3N  20.0W   10.6N  22.1W   10.7N  24.6W   10.9N  27.3W
SHIP        20KTS          24KTS          29KTS          32KTS
DSHP        20KTS          24KTS          29KTS          32KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110919  1200   110920  1200   110921  1200   110922  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.9N  31.9W   14.4N  41.0W   16.5N  49.7W   17.8N  57.7W
BAMD    10.2N  29.1W   11.3N  34.1W   13.2N  39.7W   14.8N  44.9W
BAMM    10.9N  30.6W   12.7N  37.3W   14.6N  44.5W   15.2N  51.6W
LBAR    11.2N  30.2W   12.8N  36.1W   14.5N  42.1W   15.1N  45.9W
SHIP        36KTS          39KTS          34KTS          31KTS
DSHP        36KTS          39KTS          34KTS          31KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.3N LONCUR =  20.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =   8KT
LATM12 =  10.1N LONM12 =  18.4W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
LATM24 =   9.9N LONM24 =  16.7W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139087
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 17, 2011 11:41 am

Another run by GFS (12z) doing the same,and that is after 97L crosses the Lesser Antilles,it shoots northward.

Image

Uploaded by imageshack.us
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Adoquín
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 140
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:47 pm

ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#13 Postby Adoquín » Sat Sep 17, 2011 11:48 am

12z south to north near ceiba/vieques area at 216.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139087
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 17, 2011 12:53 pm

12z Canadian. Waiting for the Euro.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
bg1
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 408
Joined: Fri May 13, 2011 11:14 am
Location: near Santee, SC

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#15 Postby bg1 » Sat Sep 17, 2011 1:09 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z Canadian. Waiting for the Euro.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


It also develops 5 weak storms and a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific... :lol: I don't know about that.
Last edited by bg1 on Sat Sep 17, 2011 2:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139087
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#16 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 17, 2011 2:09 pm

12z Euro develops it but is a non threat to Caribbean.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/rtwx/ewall/ECM ... floop.html
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
bg1
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 408
Joined: Fri May 13, 2011 11:14 am
Location: near Santee, SC

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#17 Postby bg1 » Sat Sep 17, 2011 2:14 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z Euro develops it but is a non threat to Caribbean.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/rtwx/ewall/ECM ... floop.html


What is that feature near Canada in four days? I saw this in the CMC run too.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4928
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#18 Postby Nimbus » Sat Sep 17, 2011 2:42 pm

There is a trough digging down in the mid atlantic near 40w. Looks like it has already dropped down through 25 N. Unless 97L stays weak it might get pulled north some by that feature. At the very least that trough should provide some shear. Not even sure what the models are doing with that first trough to say nothing of what would happen if it makes it to the eastern Caribbean.
0 likes   
Top
underthwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1928
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:14 pm
Location: Brazoria County Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#19 Postby underthwx » Sat Sep 17, 2011 3:30 pm

http://tropics.hamweather.com/images/tr ... models.jpg



Hamweather 97L models.

I like this site :darrow:

http://www.hamweather.com










Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4671
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#20 Postby ronjon » Sat Sep 17, 2011 3:47 pm

Interesting upper air pattern setting up according to ECM and CMC in 7 days. In response to a deep cut off mid-level low drifting south over the lower Miss valley, 500 mb heights rise dramatically over the SW atlantic. We haven't seen this setup all season, as the longwave trough axis over the US is progged to migrate to around 90W rather than 80W as its been all summer. This might put the caribbean islands at risk, especially if 97L stays weak over the next 2-3 days. Here's the 12z CMC loop that shows 97L on a path to the LA.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/12zggem500mbHGHTPMSLtropicalGGEMLoop.html
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2011”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 92 guests