ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Advisories
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011
OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO STEADILY WEAKEN WITH THE EYE NO LONGER
DISCERNIBLE IN VISIBLE OR INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. EARLIER
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATED THAT THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE WAS
TILTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THAT THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN
TO THE SOUTH. BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 95 KT.
OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER SSTS WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 18 HOURS. THE NEGATIVE OCEANIC CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OPHELIA IS ALSO FORECAST TO
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR OR JUST AFTER PASSING THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY.
THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 015/27 KT. OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE EASTERN
SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
AFTER PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE
ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...AS WELL
AS GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 38.7N 60.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 42.4N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 46.4N 53.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 49.6N 43.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/1200Z 52.0N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011
OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO STEADILY WEAKEN WITH THE EYE NO LONGER
DISCERNIBLE IN VISIBLE OR INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. EARLIER
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATED THAT THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE WAS
TILTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THAT THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN
TO THE SOUTH. BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 95 KT.
OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER SSTS WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 18 HOURS. THE NEGATIVE OCEANIC CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OPHELIA IS ALSO FORECAST TO
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR OR JUST AFTER PASSING THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY.
THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 015/27 KT. OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE EASTERN
SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
AFTER PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE
ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...AS WELL
AS GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 38.7N 60.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 42.4N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 46.4N 53.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 49.6N 43.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/1200Z 52.0N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion
FireRat wrote:Ophelia proves October is still a big hurricane month, and it's so amazing that it reached CAT 4 that far north in October. If Bermuda had been nailed by this one, it would easily have been their worst on record! All I can say they were soo lucky and WOW, what a nice looking storm!
Indeed. Some of the deadliest hurricanes occurred in October.
Great Hurricane of 1780 22,000
Mitch 1998 19,000
Flora 1963 8,000
Also, some of the most intense as well.
Wilma 2005 882 mb 185 mph
Mitch 1998 905 mb 180 mph
1924 Cuba Hurricane 910 mb 165 mph
2005 peaked in October with 7 storms. So, I would not be quick to write off October.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Advisories
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF OPHELIA HAS GRADUALLY DEGRADED IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY...A RECENT AMSR-E MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWED THAT THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE REMAINS INTACT. THE EYE
HAS BECOME LARGER...BUT REMAINS CLOSED. THE MICROWAVE DATA CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS TILTED...WITH THE SURFACE CENTER
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MID-LEVEL EYE AND ROTATION SEEN IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY
DECREASING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 85 KT. OPHELIA
IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AND WILL
BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE
COLD WATER AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE RAPID
WEAKENING TONIGHT AND MONDAY. OPHELIA WILL ALSO INTERACT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN 24 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/29 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD LATER TONIGHT AND PASS
NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH-
NORTHEAST IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
AND BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 12 AND 24
HOURS TO BE CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON RECENT ASCAT AND SHIP DATA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 41.6N 59.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 45.2N 56.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 48.6N 48.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 04/0600Z 51.0N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/1800Z 56.0N 25.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF OPHELIA HAS GRADUALLY DEGRADED IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY...A RECENT AMSR-E MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWED THAT THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE REMAINS INTACT. THE EYE
HAS BECOME LARGER...BUT REMAINS CLOSED. THE MICROWAVE DATA CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS TILTED...WITH THE SURFACE CENTER
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MID-LEVEL EYE AND ROTATION SEEN IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY
DECREASING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 85 KT. OPHELIA
IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AND WILL
BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE
COLD WATER AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE RAPID
WEAKENING TONIGHT AND MONDAY. OPHELIA WILL ALSO INTERACT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN 24 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/29 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD LATER TONIGHT AND PASS
NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH-
NORTHEAST IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
AND BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 12 AND 24
HOURS TO BE CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON RECENT ASCAT AND SHIP DATA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 41.6N 59.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 45.2N 56.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 48.6N 48.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 04/0600Z 51.0N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/1800Z 56.0N 25.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 41A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
800 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011
...OPHELIA WEAKENING AS IT MOVES QUICKLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.4N 59.8W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 33 MPH...54 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE AVALON
PENINSULA. OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHORTLY AFTER PASSING SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
260 MILES...415 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENT
CANADA BUOY 44141...LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF OPHELIA...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 54 MPH...86 KM/H.
SABLE ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 39 MPH...63 KM/H.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALON
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 41A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
800 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011
...OPHELIA WEAKENING AS IT MOVES QUICKLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.4N 59.8W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 33 MPH...54 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE AVALON
PENINSULA. OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHORTLY AFTER PASSING SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
260 MILES...415 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENT
CANADA BUOY 44141...LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF OPHELIA...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 54 MPH...86 KM/H.
SABLE ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 39 MPH...63 KM/H.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALON
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Advisories
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF OPHELIA HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE
THIS EVENING...WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING AND DRY AIR WORKING ITS WAY
INTO THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE FROM THE SOUTH. ALSO...RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED ABOUT A DEGREE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS TILT IS DUE TO THE 30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOWN OVER THE
CYCLONE IN ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...LEANING TOWARD
THE HIGH END OF A BLEND OF DVORAK CI- AND FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB
AND SAB. OPHELIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER VERY COLD WATERS AND THE
SHEAR INCREASES EVEN MORE. BY 24 HOURS...OPHELIA WILL BE
EXTRATROPICAL AND SLOWLY WEAKEN UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL
SYSTEM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
BASED ON MICROWAVE FIXES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 025/29. HOWEVER...THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS STRAIGHTFORWARD. OPHELIA WILL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN
SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOTIONS WILL BRING THE CENTER
OF OPHELIA NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY
MORNING. AFTER THAT TIME...OPHELIA WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND ACCELERATE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST
UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS.
THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED INWARD BASED
ON RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0300Z 43.9N 58.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 46.6N 53.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 49.8N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 04/1200Z 53.0N 32.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF OPHELIA HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE
THIS EVENING...WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING AND DRY AIR WORKING ITS WAY
INTO THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE FROM THE SOUTH. ALSO...RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED ABOUT A DEGREE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS TILT IS DUE TO THE 30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOWN OVER THE
CYCLONE IN ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...LEANING TOWARD
THE HIGH END OF A BLEND OF DVORAK CI- AND FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB
AND SAB. OPHELIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER VERY COLD WATERS AND THE
SHEAR INCREASES EVEN MORE. BY 24 HOURS...OPHELIA WILL BE
EXTRATROPICAL AND SLOWLY WEAKEN UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL
SYSTEM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
BASED ON MICROWAVE FIXES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 025/29. HOWEVER...THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS STRAIGHTFORWARD. OPHELIA WILL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN
SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOTIONS WILL BRING THE CENTER
OF OPHELIA NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY
MORNING. AFTER THAT TIME...OPHELIA WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND ACCELERATE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST
UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS.
THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED INWARD BASED
ON RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0300Z 43.9N 58.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 46.6N 53.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 49.8N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 04/1200Z 53.0N 32.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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leanne_uk
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Looks like the remenants will be heading for us over here in the Uk in the coming days. Ophelia has turned out to be an incredibly interesting storm to watch.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 43A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
800 AM AST MON OCT 03 2011
...CENTER OF OPHELIA TO PASS OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.1N 54.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WNW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF OPHELIA IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE EARLIER
POSITION.
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 47.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.3 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH...56 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WILL PASS OVER
THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND OPHELIA
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...
370 KM...PRIMARILY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALON
PENINSULA THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
SURF...LARGE WAVES AND SWELLS GENERATED BY OPHELIA WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TODAY...CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 43A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
800 AM AST MON OCT 03 2011
...CENTER OF OPHELIA TO PASS OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.1N 54.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WNW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF OPHELIA IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE EARLIER
POSITION.
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 47.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.3 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH...56 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WILL PASS OVER
THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND OPHELIA
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...
370 KM...PRIMARILY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALON
PENINSULA THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
SURF...LARGE WAVES AND SWELLS GENERATED BY OPHELIA WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TODAY...CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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cycloneye
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- Posts: 139141
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Advisories
BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST MON OCT 03 2011
...OPHELIA BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...48.1N 52.0W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NNE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 37 MPH...59 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
AVALON PENINSULA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
NONE
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 48.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.0 WEST.
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 37 MPH...
59 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION
IN A DAY OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...
465 KM...PRIMARILY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON OPHELIA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST MON OCT 03 2011
...OPHELIA BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...48.1N 52.0W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NNE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 37 MPH...59 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
AVALON PENINSULA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
NONE
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 48.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.0 WEST.
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 37 MPH...
59 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION
IN A DAY OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...
465 KM...PRIMARILY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON OPHELIA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139141
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion
Last Advisory
...OPHELIA BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...48.1N 52.0W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NNE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 37 MPH...59 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
...OPHELIA BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...48.1N 52.0W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NNE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 37 MPH...59 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion
Very interesting system since it was a born, bye bye Ophelia.
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