ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[Brent]

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 011.invest

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invest_al982011.invest
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201109180437
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2011, DB, O, 2011091800, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982011
AL, 98, 2011091700, , BEST, 0, 99N, 369W, 15, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011091706, , BEST, 0, 99N, 364W, 15, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011091712, , BEST, 0, 100N, 359W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011091718, , BEST, 0, 102N, 355W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011091800, , BEST, 0, 104N, 352W,

[Brent]

Go here

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 180439
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0439 UTC SUN SEP 18 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110918 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110918  0000   110918  1200   110919  0000   110919  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.4N  35.2W   10.9N  36.5W   11.3N  37.7W   11.5N  38.9W
BAMD    10.4N  35.2W   10.8N  36.3W   11.1N  37.3W   11.4N  38.3W
BAMM    10.4N  35.2W   10.7N  36.4W   10.9N  37.5W   11.0N  38.5W
LBAR    10.4N  35.2W   10.8N  35.9W   11.3N  36.9W   11.8N  38.4W
SHIP        20KTS          24KTS          30KTS          39KTS
DSHP        20KTS          24KTS          30KTS          39KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110920  0000   110921  0000   110922  0000   110923  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.7N  40.4W   12.2N  44.5W   12.3N  49.7W   12.2N  55.0W
BAMD    11.7N  39.5W   12.6N  42.9W   13.4N  47.1W   14.4N  51.4W
BAMM    10.9N  39.6W   11.0N  42.9W   11.3N  46.8W   12.2N  50.9W
LBAR    12.8N  40.4W   15.0N  45.0W   17.6N  50.5W   19.6N  55.5W
SHIP        48KTS          65KTS          68KTS          66KTS
DSHP        48KTS          65KTS          68KTS          66KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.4N LONCUR =  35.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =   1KT
LATM12 =  10.0N LONM12 =  35.9W DIRM12 =  71DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =   9.9N LONM24 =  36.9W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[cycloneye]

I can't believe that PR may get another landfalling system in 2011. I know is very early,but I dont have a good feeling about future Ophelia.

On another matter, over or under that thread reaches 50 pages? I say over if it tracks thru Caribbean.

[islandguy246]

I'll be watching closely...conditions seems favourable

[Macrocane]

The models like better this system than 97L, actually 97L could be a scapegoat for 98L, let's see how this evolves it could get interesting.

[blazess556]

This one has a shot. Models have a strong 200mb ridge strengthening over head which moves west. 00z GFS takes this straight in the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

The models like better this system than 97L, actually 97L could be a scapegoat for 98L, let's see how this evolves it could get interesting.

What do you mean Macrocane when you say scapegoat?

[Caribwxgirl]

Yeah macrocane explain please

[Macrocane]

Sorry I'm not sure if that's the best word to describe it , it was the first translation that came to my mind , I meant 97L could suffer from dry air and other hostile conditions but may moisturize the environment for 98L, so 97L will sacrifice itself for the development of 98L.

[Caribwxgirl]

Yikes! I know its early but I'm not liking the looks of this one at all.
Hope my fears are unfounded.

[Macrocane]

Ok, I think I was confused, this one is actually west of 97L right, then forget what I said, the models like this one better than 97L, but 97L won't be clearing the path for 98L.

[Fego]

It doesn't matter that 97L is behind 98L?

edited: Ok, now it makes sense.

[Gustywind]

Loop

[cycloneye]

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND AFRICA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[floridasun78]

this going take low track? into carribbean

[BigB0882]

Why do I think this will find a way to recurve or never get above TS strength or both? lol

The ridge strengthening and moving West is definitely worrisome but it seems the models have seen this time after time and then they back off in the next run. Let's see what happens in the next few runs.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looks like a pretty good blowup of thunderstorm activity.

[alan1961]

this going take low track? into carribbean

Yes according to the GFS this looks like a low
tracker into the eastern caribbean in about a
weeks time, then on the long range gets pulled
up around DR and then out to sea..lets see what
happens in the mean time.

[Nimbus]

98L is down in the ITCZ but there is a digging trough to the north that is providing a lot of shear as far south as 15N. Looks like 98L has a better chance of sliding under the trough and some of the models are building a ridge further west. I couldn't determine any LLC from the water vapor imagery, still looks like it is just a broad low area attached to the ITCZ.