ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[Ptarmigan]

I cannot believe Ophelia is a Category 4 hurricane and that far north. Ophelia is really a storm.

[jinftl]

Just 3 hours ago, the NHC put the probability of reaching Cat 4 status in the next 12 hours at 3%.

From the 5pm Discussion:

SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...

I cannot believe Ophelia is a Category 4 hurricane and that far north. Ophelia is really a storm.

[Macrocane]

who would have thought a few days ago that the struggling Ophelia was going to become not only the 3rd major hurricane of the season but the 2nd cat 4. This season is actually very interesting and could have more surprises in store, never say never in the tropics and in this case in the subtropics

[HurricaneBill]

Hugo reached C4 status twice. Once was near the Caribbean, and the other was at 30.2. I didn't count that since it reached C4 previously.

Actually Hugo peaked as a C5 east of the Caribbean.

[CrazyC83]

:eek: who would have thought a few days ago that the struggling Ophelia was going to become not only the 3rd major hurricane of the season but the 2nd cat 4. This season is actually very interesting and could have more surprises in store, never say never in the tropics and in this case in the subtropics

Key question is what happens in the mid-latitudes.

[HurricaneBill]

The northernmost storm to reach Category 4 status:

Hurricane Ella 1978

[JTE50]

And Bermuda was just 100 miles away from really getting clobbered. Even 120 mph Fabian that made a direct hit Bermuda inn Sept. 2003 was a rare event. Now to see a 135 mph one go by is scary. Well they dodged one in Bermuda but the lesson is: They can be worse than Fabain! I was there for Fabian and that one got their attention. 4 People died on the causeway between the airport and the main island when they tried to cross in cars.

[CrazyC83]

And Bermuda was just 100 miles away from really getting clobbered. Even 120 mph Fabian that made a direct hit Bermuda inn Sept. 2003 was a rare event. Now to see a 135 mph one go by is scary. Well they dodged one in Bermuda but the lesson is: They can be worse than Fabain! I was there for Fabian and that one got their attention. 4 People died on the causeway between the airport and the main island when they tried to cross in cars.

If Ophelia tracked 150 miles to the west or so, it would have been catastrophic in Bermuda, that is for sure!

[CrazyC83]

Current Intensity Analysis






UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 OCT 2011 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 32:18:25 N Lon : 62:09:41 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 938.3mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : +14.6C Cloud Region Temp : -68.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 120km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 40.0 degrees

****************************************************

[CrazyC83]

01/2345 UTC 32.5N 62.2W T5.5/5.5 OPHELIA -- Atlantic

Looks like the ADT is judging the intensity, or another agency has T6.0 or T6.5.

[Fyzn94]

I wonder if this could surpass Irene in terms of pressure...

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track at 115kts.

Crazy,they upgraded at 18z from 105 kts to 110kts.

AL, 16, 2011100200, , BEST, 0, 326N, 624W, 115, 944, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[jinftl]

If this isn't the definition of 'dodging a bullet', i don't know what is:

[CrazyC83]

00z Best Track at 115kts.

Crazy,they upgraded at 18z from 105 kts to 110kts.

AL, 16, 2011100200, , BEST, 0, 326N, 624W, 115, 944, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

I noticed that as well as a few pressure decreases, probably because of recalculations of the buoy data. I do think 944 might be a bit conservative for pressure, I would not be surprised if it was in the 930s now.

[bg1]

...OPHELIA INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT PASSES
EAST OF BERMUDA...

Unexpected! Ridiculous!

What now? A Category 5 350 miles east of Newfoundland? I mean, really!

This is one of the craziest things I've seen the tropics, along with Hurricane Epsilon, Wilma, and Vince.

Does anybody think this storm will weaken rapidly once it moves farther north as it is forecast to? I can't imagine that happening unless there is a lot of shear ahead, which the 5 pm discussion did not mention. All it said was "cooler waters", which I don't think ever completely stopped strong storms as quickly as they are forecasting.

Off topic- the map still doesn't show Philippe. Just imagine at 11 when it should display Ophelia as a Category 4. It'll beg for mercy. Or retirement.

[CrazyC83]

Still rising. Supports 120 kt at next update if this is used.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 934.8mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.4 6.4

[jinftl]

It will lose it's tropical characteristics....there is no question about that....but that doesn't mean it won't turn into an intense extra-tropical system with a huge wind field that is expanding, esp on the eastern half.

The NHC forecast for 48 hours from now has sustained 39 mph winds extending out 220 miles northeast of the center and 240 miles southeast of it! Sustained 58 mph winds will extend 25 miles out on the eastern side...and that is before she became a cat 4. Let's see what the 11pm forecast update brings.

If Newfoundland can stay west of the center vs east of it...even if it is extratrop...that will be the difference between night and day.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 48.0N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 0SW 0NW.

:double:

...OPHELIA INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT PASSES
EAST OF BERMUDA...

Unexpected! Ridiculous!

What now? A Category 5 350 miles east of Newfoundland? I mean, really!

This is one of the craziest things I've seen the tropics, along with Hurricane Epsilon, Wilma, and Vince.

Does anybody think this storm will weaken rapidly once it moves farther north as it is forecast to? I can't imagine that happening unless there is a lot of shear ahead.

[CrazyC83]

Could Dvorak be underestimating the intensity given the fast movement of Ophelia?

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Honestly, I think Ophelia weakened earlier today. The convection really waned, and the eye fell apart and even almost disappeared. I think the intensity dropped from 105 knots to 90 or 95 knots this morning around 12 UTC or so...since then, Ophelia regained composure and rapidly strengthened up to this point, becoming at least a 115 knot hurricane.

[bexar]

Did Ophelia strengthened to Cat. 4 further north than Debbie (1982)?