ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

SSD's ADT:

2011OCT02 011500 6.5 932.3/ -2.7 /127.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 12.94 -67.53 EYE 23 IR 33.22 62.08 COMBO

[AdamFirst]

Well, I wasn't expecting that!

[CrazyC83]

Could Ophelia get retired in the end?

[jinftl]

Buoy BEPB6 is located at 32.373 N 64.703 W...about 125 miles west of the 8pm center of Ophelia, and the current sea surface temp at the buoy is 82.4F.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=bepb6

SST will begin to drop off from here on it...but a due north course around 62W longitude shows SST around 26C or 27C (78-81 deg F) until about 40N.

[bexar]

What a crazy storm Ophelia is, just days ago she was a struggling sheared system which degenerated into a post-tropical low.

She sure is the redeeming grace of what was a lacklustre hurricane season.

[jinftl]

Not based on the criteria that is used when determining if a storm name should be retired. Per the NHC:

The only time that there is a change in the list is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for reasons of sensitivity. If that occurs, then at an annual meeting by the WMO committee (called primarily to discuss many other issues) the offending name is stricken from the list and another name is selected to replace it.

A system intensifying in the middle of the ocean that did no damage on bermuda and may give t.s. conditons to the Avalon peninsula of Newfoundland is not a candidate for retirement...put it this way, Hurricane Irene did almost $1 billion in damage (adjusted for inflation) to south florida in 1999 and killed 15....and that name wasn't retired as we saw this year when she came to life again.

Could Ophelia get retired in the end?

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

DURING ITS SECOND LIFETIME...OPHELIA HAS BEEN AN OVERACHIEVER AND
HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY. THE BERMUDA RADAR EARLIER INDICATED
THAT THE EYEWALL WAS QUITE STRONG WITH A CLOSED PRESENTATION. MORE
RECENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WARM WELL-DEFINED EYE...A MORE
SYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN...AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA-T VALUES WERE NEAR 115 KT AT 00Z...WITH
CIMSS ADT VALUES REACHING 122 KT. A BLEND OF THESE DATA GIVES AN
INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 120 KT. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON AS THE
HURRICANE MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS...AND THE DECREASE IN STRENGTH
SHOULD BE QUITE RAPID BY MIDDAY TOMORROW DUE TO AN INCREASE IN
SHEAR AND OPHELIA CROSSING THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE
NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...010/23. A
GRADUALLY ACCELERATING TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD
BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
MORNING AS IT MOVES AROUND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE.
ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW OPHELIA NEAR OR JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN SHIFTED LEFTWARD AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT OF THE GENERALLY RELIABLE GUIDANCE...ONLY
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THE STORM WILL
LIKELY BE RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT
TIME...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING AT SOME DISTANCE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0046 UTC ASCAT PASS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 33.8N 62.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 37.4N 61.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 42.5N 59.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 46.5N 53.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 49.5N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/0000Z 53.0N 22.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

[CrazyC83]

Now up to 140 mph. Can she get any stronger?

[SootyTern]

What a crazy storm Ophelia is, just days ago she was a struggling sheared system which degenerated into a post-tropical low.

She sure is the redeeming grace of what was a lucklustre hurricane season.

She has become a particularly beautiful storm! Whodathunk?

[Macrocane]

Ophelia is now the strongest system of the season both in terms of pressure and winds. Who said this season was over?

[jinftl]

Depends how you define 'lackluster'...16 named storms/4 hurricanes/3 majors by Oct 1 is debatedly pretty impressive (sorry to go off topic of Ophelia)...



from Dr. Jeff Master's blog last week when Philippe formed:

Tropical Storm Philippe formed in the far eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa yesterday. Philippe is the 16th named storm this year, tying 2011 with 2008, 2003, and 1936 for 7th place for the most number of named storms in a year. Philippe's formation date of September 24 puts 2011 in 2nd place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 16th storm. Only 2005 had an earlier 16th storm.

What a crazy storm Ophelia is, just days ago she was a struggling sheared system which degenerated into a post-tropical low.

She sure is the redeeming grace of what was a lucklustre hurricane season.

[bexar]

I bet none of the models predicted Ophelia to achieve this intensity days ago.

2011's Ophelia is as unusual as 2005's Ophelia.

[lilybeth]

Ophelia is now the strongest system of the season both in terms of pressure and winds. Who said this season was over?

Thank you for the stats, that is incredible. Especially given she pretty much died at one point.

[FireRat]

Ophelia proves October is still a big hurricane month, and it's so amazing that it reached CAT 4 that far north in October. If Bermuda had been nailed by this one, it would easily have been their worst on record! All I can say they were soo lucky and WOW, what a nice looking storm!

[FireRat]

Dam Dude!

[lilybeth]

Back up to a Cat 4 tonight...wow.

[bexar]

and the weakening begins.... down to 110 KTs

[Cranica]

I notice that, in contrast to previous storms this year, Ophelia and Philippe have both shrugged off conditions that should have been limiting or fatal respectively and gone on to strengthen - do we finally have some instability in the tropics to let these storms take advantage of the other favorable setups?

[bexar]

^

I think it's already too late for more CV development. No more healthy looking waves.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 39A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
800 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011

...OPHELIA TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.5N 61.2W
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 30 MPH...48 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
PASSES CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALON
PENINSULA BY EARLY MONDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS CREATED BY OPHELIA WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SURF
CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN