EPAC: HILARY - Remnants

[Epsilon_Fan]

Very impressive presentation right now, I wouldn't be surprised to wake up to a Cat 5. This ramped up like Wilma did several years ago, if not faster!

Something about these little tiny hurricanes that get so strong. Their size almost makes it easy to overlook. I remember a little tiny storm hitting Australia that was a Cat 5 but it didn't look like a classic Cat 5. There was also a little tiny one a year or two ago that hit central america after RIing before landfall. I guess these little ones can ramp up quick.

The EPac is putting the Atl. to shame with powerful storms. Luckily all of them have been fish storms up to this point.

[bexar]

It looks Cat 5 to me now

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I wonder how this storm would be referenced to Sec. Hillary Clinton

just kidding.

[Macrocane]

The NHC tends to be more conservative in the EPAC than the Atlantic, but it really looks like it's still intensifying, maybe a cat 5 at the next intermediate.

[Extratropical94]

They also often tend to go with Dvorak numbers, so the magical number we're waiting for is 7.0

SSD ADT currently at 6.4 with raw T's of 6.8

[Kingarabian]

Atleast 155mph storm.

[lilybeth]

Those visuals are amazing. I cannot believe she was just a TS what, 24 hours ago? Tiny but mighty.

[Kingarabian]

Cleared out again.

The show goes on all night...

[Kingarabian]

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HILARY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...AND
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 145
MPH...235 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HILARY IS A CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...WITH FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

[Cranica]

What's the RI record for the EPAC? This has got to be pretty close.

[Ad Novoxium]

It belongs to either Elida of 2002 or Rick of 2009, because I can't remember if Rick toppled Elida's record.

[Chacor]

Absolutely stunning storm.

[Extratropical94]

Data from 5 hours ago:
23/0545 UTC 16.0N 101.4W T6.5/6.5 HILARY -- East Pacific
That's 125 knots / 145 mph.
Could be T7.0/7.0 at 1145Z according to SSD's ADT, which would likely cause an upgrade to Cat. 5 - 140kt/160mph at 11am EDT/8am PDT.

[Cyclenall]

Ok, Hurricane Hilary is officially an awesome hurricane now, look at the 9:45 UTC imagery of it...just insane and shocking. I haven't seen any hurricane look that good since Hurricane Rick in 2009 and it's starting to seem like a redux. My guess at strength is 135 knots but it could already be 140 knots which would mean another CAT5 hurricane during a La Nina! It would also mean many other things such as; The Epac having 3 consecutive years of CAT5 hurricanes, No CAT5 hurricanes in the Atlantic since 2007 but 3 in the Epac (during the negative AMO), and the models being epically wrong yet again for a Epac hurricane for its intensity (except the HWFI showing 160 knots, it could come close! ).

The NHC is coming on board and catching up to its intensity. I would personally be forecasting a category 5 hurricane at this point, I think the % chances are now 80%, up from 50% 16 hours ago. It had a perfect cyclone shape, almost like Cyclone Monica's shape from April 2006 for a time until new banding started to form around it. On AVN, a thick red CDO has completely surrounded the eye with pockets of -80C cloud tops which normally means instant CAT5 but the eye just needs some slight improvement and it's obvious. Eye size has shrunk and is two steps above what I would call a pinhole eye. After reviewing Hurricanes Rick, Celia, Dora, and Eugene in the Epac I see why some are rated stronger than Hilary currently is - Eye temperature and structure. There is way more weight on that than anything else, even if there is a huge thick CDO of very deep convection completely wrapped around a "semi-ok" eye. I kind of already knew this but I forgot just how much weight is given to the eye, apparently a lot.

[RL3AO]

Not very often you have a cat 4 this close to land with no recon.

[RL3AO]

I kind of already knew this but I forgot just how much weight is given to the eye, apparently a lot.

The eye and eyewall is the clue to show the difference between a strong 3/weak 4 and a strong 4/5. In the latter you have a PERFECTLY round eye thats usually very warm (>0C? Just a guess) on IR with very intense convection surrounding it.

With the cat 3/weak 4 its usually a mostly round eye without as intense of convection.

According to ADT the center temp has gone from -20 to +3C in 4 hours. Only thing keeping dvorak down is the cloud tops are only -70 or so and not the -80 like they were 12 hours ago.

[Yellow Evan]

Close to D-max, convection should increase again. Eye needs to become slightly better defined.

[RL3AO]

Eye needs to become slightly better defined.

I don't think it can get much better defined then it is now.

[Yellow Evan]

To quote Lixon, the satellite presentation is spectacular.

[Blown Away]

What a beautiful hurricane, kinda looks like Charley.

[HurricaneRobert]

I don't know why she needs to carry that blob with her.